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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 13, 2014 by Dick Powell You got to admit it, California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) put a charge into you when he swung four-wide at the top of the stretch in Saturday's Belmont Stakes and had dead aim on the Triple Crown. Whether you were for or against him, the Cal-bred three-year-old looked like he might make history as 102,199 fans screamed their lungs out. No speakers set up the length of the stretch were needed like there were for LL Cool J. This was way louder than his amplifiers could ever pump up. The noise was a combination of cheering and pleading. Belmont Park was filled to the rafters and they came from all over to see the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. And, were they loud. I had seats in the grandstand in section U. Undercover and far enough back to see the entire track with binoculars, it was perfect for me as the clubhouse at Belmont is mostly past the finish line. I like to see the horses come out of the turn since that is when most races are decided. Given a choice, I'll take the grandstand any time. To my left were two guys from North Carolina that had never been to a horse race before. To my right were five women that came from Georgia to root for California Chrome. Belmont Park was full and it had nothing to do with the great undercard. There was one reason they came from near and far. At the start, Matterhorn (Tapit) bumped with California Chrome and the race might have been decided right there as California Chrome suffered a nasty gash to his right rear hoof. How much it affected him we will never know but it could not have helped. Going into the first turn, it looked like Victor Espinoza could have had the lead or at least kept Commissioner (A.P. Indy) from getting over to the rail. Instead, he was happy to save ground and rate him while Commissioner outsprinted him early. If you saw Commissioner break off from the post parade and warm up like he was getting ready for a Quarter Horse race, it was no surprise that Todd Pletcher was going to use the same front-end tactics he used with Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song) in 2009. After a half-mile in 48.52 seconds, the field straightened out for the run up the backstretch with Commissioner on the lead, General A Rod (Roman Ruler) was pressuring him on the outside and Tonalist (Tapit) was farther out. Espinoza had California Chrome in a ground-saving position but he was in behind horses. It did not look like he minded being there and the pace was sensible enough to keep him from being too keyed up. Trying to improve his position was Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), who looked very hot before the race. He has had maturity problems before and Rajiv Maragh took him as far away from the big crowd as he could before the race. It was a hot day so being sweaty was not a big negative but I just had the impression that he was not at his best. Maragh tried to maintain his position between horses as the horses that figured to be deep closers were racing much closer to the pace. As it turned out, this was not a track that you could press a button and accelerate. It had a lot of rain Thursday morning and while it had dried out, the main track was very fast with the inside being as good as the outside. When that happens, the inside becomes preferable since if all things are equal, saving ground can be the difference. Nearing the half-mile pole, Espinoza began to ease California Chrome off the rail and go to the outside for clear running. When he abandoned his inside position, Robby Albarado snuck Medal Count (Dynaformer) up the rail to wait for the stretch run. When the field hit the quarter pole, Commissioner was clinging to the lead, General A Rod was right on top of him and Tonalist was three deep. California Chrome moved up four wide and Medal Count was in behind the inside leaders. Wicked Strong was going to go widest of all and the race was on. Maybe it was three races in five weeks. Maybe it was being stepped on at the start. Maybe it was a suspect pedigree finally being exposed. For whatever reason, the energy in the stretch that California Chrome had shown in his last six starts was not there. All four horses were exhausted and they all struggled to get to the wire. The final quarter mile run in 26.09 seconds was not pretty. Commissioner kept on going as General A Rod began to back up and Joel Rosario got Tonalist over to the inside as it suddenly looked like a two-horse race a 100 yards out. Medal Count was running on gamely but as Tonalist moved towards the rail, he ran out of room. It looked like Commissioner was going to hold on but the strength of Rosario was the difference and he won it by a head. Medal Count was a game third and California Chrome dead-heated with Wicked Strong for fourth. There were less than two lengths separating the top five horses. Tonalist won the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) but it was on a sloppy track and he was picking up nine pounds. He had been training with bar shoes and missed the Derby when he got sick. It may have been a blessing for him to be ready for the Belmont but made it hard to gauge his form. I picked him fourth with Wicked Strong on top followed by Medal Count and California Chrome. A look at the Trakus data shows what a remarkable race Tonalist ran. He raced 67 feet farther than Commissioner and 64 feet farther than Medal Count. Having watched Palace Malice (Curlin) rally up the rail to win the Met Mile (G1) and Bayern (Offlee Wild) go gate to wire from post 1 to win the Woody Stephens (G2), it's not like it was a dead rail on Saturday. So it was amazing that Tonalist was able to lose so much ground and still run down a loose-on-the-lead runner that saved all the ground. While the Peter Pan may have been a hard race to gauge, the allowance race at Gulfstream Park where Tonalist finished second to Constitution (Tapit) becomes an ultimate key race as it has now yielded three Grade 1 stakes winners. So now the Triple Crown is over and everyone goes their separate ways. Commissioner came out of the race with an ankle chip and will be out until the Fall. Californian Chrome will need rest and time to heal his hoof injury so I think the earliest we could see him would be the Santa Anita fall meet. Tonalist will probably be next seen at Saratoga where he may meet up with Medal Count and Wicked Strong. No matter what the reason for California Chrome coming up empty when it counted, I am convinced that had the Belmont been run a week earlier, two weeks after the Preakness instead of three, he would have won since he was full of energy then. I felt the same way with Funny Cide and Smarty Jones who also looked great the week before but came up short on the big day.
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