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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 2, 2008 by Dick Powell Even though there's a full field of 20 for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1), the handicapping test is not multiple choice but true/false. Is BIG BROWN (Boundary) as good as he seems to be? If it's true, the other 19 horses are running for the minor awards. But, if it's false, this Derby is wide open. Even before Big Brown drew post 20, I thought he was vulnerable. A combination of the lack of seasoning, (not only three career starts but never running in behind or between horses in two dirt starts), the many other need-to-lead types in this year's field and the bearing in during the stretch run of the Florida Derby (G1) make me think that we are looking more at Bellamy Road than Seattle Slew. I don't blame Big Brown's owners for picking post 20 from the five that were left. They were picking 16th and the saving grace of post 20 is that, historically, the moment the gate is closed behind the last horse, the latches are sprung. He won't have to spend more than a few seconds in the gate and Kent Desormeaux can time the break with ease. The first problem Big Brown has is three legitimate speed horses to his immediate left. Breaking from post 17, COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) has been on the lead in his last two starts and might be hard used to help fellow Todd Pletcher trainee MONBA (Maria's Mon). Next to him is RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run), who won the Illinois Derby (G2) gate to wire, and to his right in post 19 is GAYEGO (Gilded Time), who has plenty of gas if Mike Smith wants to use it. Breaking from the outside, I don't see where he has any choice. Further to the inside in post 13 is BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack), who should be as quick as ever with blinkers added. COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) breaks from post 1 where Julien Leparoux will have no choice but to send him to avoid getting jammed up. Can Big Brown outsprint the field to the first turn? Absolutely, but at what cost? It's not necessarily the ground loss from post 20 but the amount of energy he has to use to do it. If he doesn't go, Desormeaux runs the risk of being extremely wide on the first turn. I can't imagine that he will be able to save even a little ground while racing behind the leaders -- a position he's never been in. The only positive outcome for Big Brown would be to break running, make the lead and then settle into stride. I just can't see it happening. He's talented enough to do it but I think he will have to use too much energy. There will be a point turning for home where Big Brown will look like a winner so the question is does the first quarter do him in? I'm betting it does. So, if not Big Brown, who? I've liked DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) since he broke his maiden in his career debut going seven furlongs last November at Churchill. When he won the Southwest S. (G3) with a sensational rally, I thought he would be one of the major contenders. To say he stubbed his toe in the Illinois Derby is an understatement. On a track he probably wasn't going to win on anyway, in a race he definitely shouldn't have been in, everything that could go wrong went wrong. He was steadied going into the first turn when Leparoux tried to stalk the pace between horses and he lacked the finishing power he showed in his first three races. For most of April it looked like Denis of Cork would be on the outside looking in as he was not in the top 20 in graded stakes earnings. Trainer David Carroll was incredibly frustrated since it was not his idea to go to Illinois but he continued to work his colt as if he was racing on the first Saturday in May. On April 21, Denis of Cork had a sensational five-furlong work in 1:00 at Churchill, where he ran his last quarter in less than :23. Seven days later, he breezed a half in :48, but his gallop-out past the wire was eye-popping. Calvin Borel had trouble pulling him up and took him halfway down the backstretch before he could get him to slow down. Now that workout videos are available online, you can watch them for yourself instead of relying on others for their opinions but all agree that he is working sensationally. The fact that he wintered at the Fair Grounds is another point in his favor. In today's world of lightly raced contenders, we are forced to bet before we see the flop. I liked Denis of Cork before his clunker but he has redeemed himself on the track since then. He finishes his races full of run and more importantly, he runs the turns better than anyone I have seen since Sunday Silence. The race should set up for him and there's no question about his ability to handle the track. He'll need some luck but horses that accelerate the way he does tend to make their own luck as opposed to one-dimensional closers. The price is right and I love what I see. My betting strategy for Saturday is a large win/place bet on Denis of Cork. Next will be an exacta box with Big Brown. With Denis of Cork's long odds, that should be enough but I'll make a trifecta box with those two and COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) and COURT VISION (Gulch). I know the big pools of the Derby present the opportunity for a life-changing score but too much can go wrong in a bulky field. If I'm right about Denis of Cork, the last thing I want is some sob story about how he won but I lost the place photo. One word of advice: if you like Big Brown, do not be afraid to bet him. You will hear a ton of chatter this week about how handicappers like him but don't like the price. If he's the horse that you think he is, 5-2 might look pretty good, in retrospect. Don't be turned off by the price unless he is bet down to odds-on. The best thing about winning the Kentucky Derby is it's like winning 50 races. Every time they show the replay that night, your horse wins. The worst thing about losing the Kentucky Derby is too many bettors wager out of their comfort zone. I know it's a unique opportunity because of field size but don't overdo it. Like any other race, you have to weigh risk and reward and the rewards of the Derby are there because of the risks.
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