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BELMONT REPORT MAY 29, 2008 by James Scully The quarter-crack was only a temporary setback, but it served as the perfect reminder for why BIG BROWN (Boundary) is so lightly raced -- he's fragile. If the Belmont S. (G1) proves to be his final career start, he'll head to stud with only six career starts. Ten of the previous 11 Triple Crown winners raced at least that many times at two, and Whirlaway made 16 juvenile starts before garnering the Triple Crown in 1941. Big Brown does have something in common with the Calumet homebred; he's the first horse since Whirlaway to win both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) by at least four lengths. The foot injury lends itself to the possibility of another setback, and it highlighted another major concern for anybody who cares about horse racing. Win or lose, Big Brown's connections could easily decide to retire him after the Belmont. It won't be a blunt announcement. We'll get some story that puts it in the best interest of the horse. There will be another reported flare-up of his foot, and four-out-of-five doctors will recommend retirement over the possibility of serious injury. I find it difficult to believe that Big Brown will ever race again after the Belmont, and that's a real shame. Trainer Richard Dutrow remains as confident as ever, trashing the competition regularly, and it was interesting to see him knock Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) last week. According to the brash conditioner, Big Brown has nothing to worry about if he ever runs against Curlin. Dutrow pointed out that Curlin lost to a filly, champion and 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches, and questioned the colt's abilities as a result. It was a ridiculous statement, and Curlin's connections aren't worried. You won't hear trainer Steve Asmussen knocking Big Brown when they retire him early. If he wanted to act like Dutrow, he'd say that Big Brown's connections were scared to lose to the best horse in the land. Unlike Curlin, who had to deal with one of the deepest and most talented three-year-old divisions in the past 30 years, Big Brown is beating up on a bunch of softies. That's why there's a buzz surrounding the unbeaten CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft). With the Japanese horse in the line-up, Big Brown will face a legitimate rival at "Big Sandy." In the past, a horse making only his third career start in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont would be a complete throw out because the inexperienced runner wouldn't have enough bottom to get the job done. But times have changed drastically. Big Brown, who wasn't even in training in January, won the Derby in his fourth career outing, and he smashed other historical precedents while making a mockery of those who didn't think he had the breeding (by a confirmed six-furlong sprinter) to handle the 10-furlong distance. Casino Drive is essentially in the same boat. He didn't make his career debut until February 23, crushing a group of overmatched rivals in Kyoto, Japan, and didn't beat much when winning the May 10 Peter Pan S. (G2) by 5 3/4 lengths. To think that he could step up and beat a horse of Big Brown's caliber off only two starts remains a stretch, but it's possible. He's got the best chance at an upset. A half-brother 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, Casino Drive is a three-quarters brother to the outstanding filly Rags to Riches. He's bred to absolutely thrive over 1 1/2 miles. And he obviously owns plenty of talent, thrashing his competition like Big Brown while earning a 109 BRIS Speed rating in the Peter Pan. That number is 11 points higher than any Speed figure earned by Derby second choice and sixth-place finisher Colonel John (Tiznow). The way I see it, Big Brown is still a standout in the Belmont -- he's that good. But horses will take a step back in the "Test of Champions." If Big Brown regresses even slightly, Casino Drive could be there to take advantage. We'll have a final preview of the Belmont next week.
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