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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 13, 2008 by Dick Powell The Fog of War is a term that refers to the uncertainty that descends over a battlefield once fighting begins. Even if you are taking part in the battle, there is no way that you could accurately make a big-picture analysis of what is going on. If you interviewed someone who was involved in storming the beach at Normandy, they would have a first-hand account of what they went through but not how the rest of the invasion went. In last Saturday's Belmont S. (G1), a lot of events happened that created a fog surrounding Big Brown's (Boundary) defeat. Luckily, I didn't attend this year’s Belmont, despite plans to do so, primarily because of the expected heat and humidity. But, by staying home, I think I saw more from my living room couch watching in hi-def than I would have had I attended. Big Brown has suffered from hoof problems since last year when he broke his maiden on the turf at Saratoga. He didn't make his seasonal debut until March when he romped in an off-the-turf mile at Gulfstream Park. From there it was on to the Florida Derby (G1) where Big Brown inserted himself into the classic picture with another romp. It was around this time that trainer Rick Dutrow declared his hoof problems were over and based upon his regular workout pattern at Palm Meadows, it looked like he was right. But, Dutrow should have known that hoof problems are usually chronic and can flare up without warning. On a fast Churchill Downs main track, Big Brown continued his domination with an easy win in the Kentucky Derby (G1) from post 20. With most of his vanquished competitors passing the Preakness (G1), Dutrow trained him very lightly for Baltimore while keeping the big picture of the Triple Crown in mind. Other than a short blowout the morning of the Preakness, Big Brown jogged for two weeks, but it made no difference as he destroyed his overmatched rivals in a way that made the Belmont (G1) and Triple Crown glory look like a "foregone conclusion." A week after the Preakness, another quarter-crack surfaced and Team Dutrow was all over it. They did a brilliant job of controlling it and making sure that it would not be a factor in the Belmont. But, even though the left-fore hoof held up in the Test of Champions last Saturday, it contributed to the sequence of events that led to the shocking result of Big Brown being pulled up and trotting home. With the hoof always an issue, (you don't avoid the races from September to March with a talented colt unless something is wrong), Big Brown did even less training in the three weeks between the Preakness and Belmont. It's one thing to jog up to the race; it's another to stay in the barn while specialists are treating the quarter-crack. Finally, he began to jog and on Tuesday breezed five furlongs in a minute flat. It was his first significant, timed workout since April 24 at Palm Meadows. Yes, the quarter-crack held up but exercise rider Michelle Nevin said afterward that Big Brown was uncharacteristically on the muscle at the beginning of the work. With his light workload, this was perfectly understandable. But, it was not a good sign four days before attempting to go 1 1/2 miles. On Wednesday, Big Brown drew post one in the field of 10 and those of us that had questioned how he would run if caught in behind horses in traffic might get their wish. On Friday, the starting status of probable second choice Casino Drive (Mineshaft) became questionable and after a night to monitor his soundness issues, his connections decided to scratch him Saturday morning. Saturday dawned brutally hot and humid and I was glad I stayed home. I went to a simulcast site to make my bets and watch some of the early races. One of the monitors had ESPN on and they were showing Big Brown acting up in the detention barn after arriving. This was around 12:05 p.m. (EDT) and it had just happened. A few minutes later, they showed Big Brown kicking and bucking again. At 12:30, ESPN reported that they were asked to remove their cameras but the impression was indelible -- Big Brown was becoming unglued on a hot day six hours before his race. ESPN's racing coverage can be very frustrating to watch, but this was fantastic stuff. What I couldn't get out of my mind was that a few years ago, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas sat at the National Museum of Racing and said that half of the two-year-olds that he led over at Saratoga had no shot at winning since they melted down in the detention barn. Now, the viewers were able to see what he was talking about first hand. When Team Dutrow led Big Brown over to the paddock to be saddled, it looked like a tension convention. I didn't see any of the bravado that we had seen before the first two legs of the Triple Crown. On hot, sweltering days, it's hard to gauge a horse in the paddock. Some are soaking wet, but that could have been from a bucket of water or a hose being poured over them to keep their body temperature down. It's hot so they are supposed to look sweaty. Big Brown looked a bit "ribby" walking over, but his coat looked good. When in the paddock, he had no kidney sweat between his hind legs but was not up on his toes. About to go 1 1/2 miles, you don't want to see them too keyed up, so I didn't draw any negative conclusions. He wasn't completely dull, but he wasn't giving off that "about to explode" vibe, either. ABC was now televising the race and it was all Big Brown, all the time. But after the riders mounted and the nine Belmont starters circled the walking ring, I noted with much dismay that my upset choice, Ready's Echo (More Than Ready), was wearing front-leg bandages for the first time. Oh well. As the horses were leaving the paddock, Kent Desormeaux twice put his left index finger to his lips and urged the crowd not to cheer -- kind of odd considering that he handled the huge throng at the Kentucky Derby. What did he know that we didn't? In the post parade, Big Brown behaved well. He warmed up lightly and looked like a horse is supposed to that is about to run a mile and a half on a hot and humid day. The same could not be said about DA' TARA (Tiznow), who was worked up and sweating profusely. By the time they made it to the gate, he was covered with lather as was Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat). At the start, Big Brown broke to the outside for a couple of strides and wound up behind Da' Tara, who had gunned to the front with Alan Garcia. It looked like something spooked Big Brown out of the gate and there has been speculation that it might have been a stand of cameras at the finish line. After the ABC telecast, I rewound my TIVO recording and later watched the NYRA feed of the race. What I saw was the starting gate, with the field on nine, not being placed up against the rail. The first stall was empty and Big Brown was breaking from post two meaning that Desormeaux has plenty of room to his inside if he wanted to gun him and get to the rail. But standing about six feet off the rail on the track was the starter, Roy Williamson. Years ago, starters started races from a stand inside the rail where they could get a good view of the field. But recently, at least in America, starters began to stand on the track but usually at the rail or under it. I don't know why Williamson was so far out onto the track. It was probably because he wanted to be just inside the horses breaking from the gate that had been set off the rail. If he wanted to duck under the rail, either before the start or right after it, he couldn't since there was a wall of sponsor signage blocking him. The sponsor of these signs? UPS, the company that Big Brown was originally named after. With Da' Tara gunning to the front, Big Brown, rank from the lack of work going into the race, took up the chase and raced up on his heels nearing the clubhouse turn. Usually, in a 1 1/2-mile race, the horses might be strung out, but Eibar Coa on Tale of Ekati was not going to let Desormeaux out of the box that he ran himself into. To avoid clipping heels and going down, Desormeaux had to snatch Big Brown hard who threw his head high in resistance. This was foreign territory for Big Brown, who wanted to go but had no room. The first quarter was run in :23.82 and the amount of energy that Big Brown expended was enormous. When horses throw their heads that high they can cut off their oxygen and even though there was no evidence after the race that he flipped his palate, Big Brown struggled from that point on. Desormeaux had to let Coa go by on Tale of Ekati and then bulled his way through Anak Nakal (Victory Gallop) to get to an outside, stalking position as they entered the clubhouse turn. Unlike in the Preakness, when he settled nicely on the inside, Big Brown was rank as could be. Maybe it was the freshness from not training enough, maybe it was the poor and awkward break or maybe it was an amateurish ride from Desormeaux, but Big Brown, with 10 furlongs left to run, did not look like a Triple Crown winner. Around the far turn, Da' Tara stayed on the lead and the rail as they covered the first half in :48.30. Down the backstretch, Coa kept Tale of Ekati far off the rail carrying Big Brown out to the middle of the track. All the perfect trips that he had generated from his superior speed and athleticism were a thing of the past, and Big Brown was in the fight of his life. After six furlongs in 1:12.90 and a mile in 1:37.96, it looked like it was time for Da' Tara to begin checking out of the race, but a funny thing happened on the way to the finish line -- he spurted forward and opened up a four-length lead midway around the far turn! Desormeaux had nothing on Big Brown and as he plummeted to the back of the pack, he tried to pull him up as if something was dramatically wrong. Tale of Ekati began to run out of steam and the major danger was coming from Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday), who flew by Big Brown at the top of the stretch and took dead aim on Da' Tara. By now, Da' Tara had increased his advantage to five lengths and despite a fast pace, he wasn't coming back to the field. Someone was going to have to go get him and none were up to the task. At the eighth-pole, Da' Tara veered out from Garcia's left-hand whip, but he quickly corrected himself and went back to the inside. Denis of Cork's late rally flattened out and Ready's Echo was in an all-out battle for third with Anak Nakal. At 38-1, Da' Tara, trained by Nick Zito and owned by Robert LaPenta, shockingly won the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes. Denis of Cork was a clear second and Ready's Echo and Anak Nakal finished in a dead-heat for third. Big Brown trotted home dead last as the 3-10 favorite. Da' Tara took 2:29.65 to cover the mile and a half and earned a BRIS Speed rating of 106. That much we know. Immediately, the connections of Big Brown were asked, "What happened?" But they were in the fog of war and didn't necessarily know. Desormeaux was tight-lipped, but he was riding horses all day and probably didn't know about the detention barn meltdown. He knew how the horse felt once he got aboard, and Kent's body language was not one of confidence going to the post. The media surrounded trainer Rick Dutrow, who first did not want to talk, but then held court outside the test barn while being televised live by ESPN News. He answered all the questions as candidly as possible, but he had yet to examine Big Brown thoroughly. That would only come after he left the test barn and got back to where he was being stabled at Bobby Frankel's barn. Big Brown walked back sound and his left-fore hoof showed no signs of wear and tear. IEAH head Michael Iavarone said on Sunday that he thought the Belmont main track was playing loose as the day went on due to a lack of water. With the demands from a big crowd on a hot, sweltering day, Belmont Park's water pressure dropped dangerously low and there were many complaints about not enough water being applied to the main track as the day wore on. I think that the sequence of (a) the injured hoof; (b) the planned reduction in Big Brown's training because of it; (c) the presence of a new quarter-crack; (d) the signs that Big Brown was showing by being more aggressive and eager; (e) the heat and humidity on Saturday; (f) the meltdown in the detention barn; (g) the dullness in the paddock and post parade; (h) the swerve to the outside that might have been caused by the starter standing six feet inside the rail on the track; (i) the refusal to rate early and rankness that he showed going into the clubhouse turn possibly caused by the lack of training and poor start; (j) the traffic jam with Da' Tara in front of him and Tale of Ekati keeping him boxed in; (k) the energy expended; and, (l) the wide trip down the backside finally culminated in an undefeated horse being ignominiously eased to a trot with a quarter-mile to run. That might not lift the fog completely, but at least begins to plausibly explain the unexplainable. Big Brown was beaten and beaten bad. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. The only possible benefit that I can find is that instead of going right to the breeding shed, he still has a lot to prove on the racetrack to enhance his stud value. If his feet permit it, we should see him again on the racetrack this year.
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