|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 24, 2009 by Dick Powell The New York Racing Association announced this week a $500,000 guaranteed late Pick 4 on each Saturday during this year's Saratoga meet. This caught my attention and I went to last year's charts to see if we could find any pari-mutuel opportunities. The danger for NYRA is that if we get wet weather in Saratoga and races are washed off the turf, they could be left with short fields and betting on the Pick 4 will be below the guarantee. Plus, since it is the late Pick Four on Saturday, there will be graded stakes races that often attract short fields. If any of these circumstances happen, there's a chance that the $500,000 guarantee will not be met and NYRA will have to make up the difference. This becomes a similar situation to a carryover where you could have a negative takeout rate. For instance, if only $400,000 is bet on the late Pick 4 on a Saturday this year at Saratoga, NYRA has to seed the pot with $100,000, or 25 percent of the pool. With the Pick 4 takeout being 26 percent at NYRA, the effective takeout in this scenario is only 1 percent. A $500,000 late Pick 4 pari-mutuel pool sounds like a lot of money, but this is Saratoga so let's look at the record. Below are the pool sizes for each of the six late Pick Fours on Saturdays last year at Saratoga:
Clearly, forget the first Saturday and fifth which is when the Whitney (G1) and Travers S. (G1) are run, respectively. No matter what the circumstances, the nation-wide handle is too strong to offer any chance that the $500,000 guarantee will not be met. The final Saturday's late Pick Four was also strong, but it had fields of 11, 10, 7 and 10 so maybe it might be vulnerable under the right circumstances. The real opportunity could come in weeks two and three. Last year, the late Pick Four pool in weeks two and three did not even come close to $500,000. With this year's $500,000 pool guarantee, you could assume that betting would have been higher, but there's still a chance that the above circumstances -- races switched off the turf and/or short fields in high-class stakes races -- could result in the guarantee not being met. My strategy will be in weeks two and three to see what the field sizes are. If there is poor weather and a turf race has to be switched to the main track, with the usual number of scratches, or a graded stakes comes up with an overwhelming favorite and short field, I'll take a shot. You will not know the pool size of the late Pick Four until it begins, but at least we know that weeks two and three could be vulnerable. The reason that I am willing to go to great lengths to find a situation where the guarantee is not met is my constant search to bet on horse racing with the lowest possible takeout. You would think that everyone that plays horses seriously does the same thing, but their behavior says otherwise. The question I get asked the most is, "how do I bet?" The answer is pretty simple if you are trying to bet into the lowest takeout rates. I am a "win" bettor. If the odds are high enough, I'll play a horse to "win/place" and I protect my "win" bets with exactas. If there are two races in a row that I like I might play a daily double. I only play the Pick Six if there is a carryover unless it is at NYRA, which has a low takeout rate when there is no carryover. Forget the rest. Too many of us have become distracted by bet minimums and not bet takeouts. So what if a superfecta has a 10-cent minimum? The takeout rate is at least 25 percent and not worth it for me. At NYRA, the takeout on win and place is 16 percent and exactas/daily doubles are 18.5 percent. The Pick Six is only 16 percent when there is no carryover. At Del Mar, the takeout on win and place is 15.43 percent and all exotic wagers have a takeout of 20.68 percent. A little higher than I want on exactas, but very low on win and/or place. Why play anywhere else? When you consider that there are many times when the Pick Sixes that I play have little or negative takeout, my blended takeout rate has to be around 12 to 15 percent. Yes, I'll venture out to tracks that have higher takeouts, but I stick to win and/or place betting as much as possible. Read the racing blogs and takeout is a hot issue; probably the hottest. But players' behavior is often different from what they say. How many players go to a simulcast site and bet racetracks without having a clue what the takeout is? Management sees this time and time again and draws the conclusion that takeout is not that important and it can be raised without serious consequences. And often times they are right. We say one thing and do the other.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
