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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 3, 2010 by Dick Powell The immediate reaction to Saturday's thrilling, photo-finish to the 141st Travers S. (G1) at Saratoga was that it was one of the closest ever. Yet, it was only two years ago that COLONEL JOHN won an improbable photo finish over Mambo In Seattle. And, ironically, it was 10 years ago that Nick Zito's Albert The Great was nosed out in the last jump by UNSHADED. So we have had many close finishes at the "Midsummer Derby" and the 2010 edition joins the lore. On a spectacular day of sunshine, the Saratoga main track was favoring speed; at least in the sprints. In race 5, Todd Pletcher unveiled hot first-time starter UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie), who was facing nine other juvenile first time starters going six furlongs. Touted widely, he was sent off as the 9-10 favorite with Johnny Velazquez in the irons. I've been scouring my memory banks to remember the best first-out winners I have seen here. They had to make their debut at Saratoga and it doesn't matter what they became. Those that stick out in my memory are WINNING COLORS who broke her maiden late in the meet in 1987; UNBRIDLED'S SONG, who gave anyone that was there goose bumps in 1995; BIG BROWN, who ran a hole in the wind going two turns on the turf in 2007; and MAIMONIDES, who won by 11 1/2 lengths for Bob Baffert in 2007. Welcome Uncle Mo to the list. He broke beautifully and was able to effortlessly get to the front. After a first quarter in :22.20, Velazquez kept him on cruise control around the far turn and hit the top of the stretch a length and a half in front while covering the first half in :45.67. At this point, Uncle Mo looked like any other speedy firster, but it was in the homestretch into a slight headwind that he made jaws drop. With hands and heels encouragement from Velazquez, Uncle Mo began to pour it on through the stretch before the crowd of 45,764. Widening his margin with every stride, he had a six-length lead at the furlong pole and hit the wire 14 1/4 lengths in front. Uncle Mo's final time for six furlongs was 1:09.21, meaning his last quarter mile was :23.54. He was remarkable and besides a great Travers to remember, anyone that was here that day might say years from now, "I was there the day that Uncle Mo broke his maiden." The main track stakes races run on the undercard were all dominated by frontrunners. RAPPORT (Songandaprayer) went gate to wire to easily win the Victory Ride S. (G3); RIGHTLY SO (Read the Footnotes) assumed control out of the gate after he bumped the other likely speed horse, Warbling (Unbridled's Song), and never looked back to win the Ballerina S. (G1); and DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) dominated the King's Bishop S. (G1) on the front end for Velazquez/Pletcher. So, the question was how this apparent speed bias would affect the running of the Travers. Would speed continue to hold up? Would closers get a fair shot? One reason why I was confident that the Travers would be bias-free was how slow the sprint races were in the homestretch. Even with frontrunners dominating the main track sprints, those leaders were staggering home as if they were running uphill. Rightly So took :13.29 seconds to run the last furlong of the Ballerina and Discreetly Mine needed a pokey :13.72 in the King's Bishop. Throughout this meet, we have seen that on hot sunny days, the main track has been drying out as the day goes on. It used to be that the main track would become speed favoring as more water was put on it but now the opposite seems to be the case. Since many of the weekends this year were hot and sunny, we have seen major stakes races affected by the lack of water which resulted in a dry, cuppy track that has not been yielding fast times. At the start of the Travers, Miner's Reserve (Mineshaft) went to the front and was tracked first over by First Dude (Stephen Got Even). A Little Warm (Stormin Fever) and Trappe Shot (Tapit) were in the next group and Admiral Alex (Afleet Alex), who looked awful before the race, joined them. Javier Castellano, who seems to make the right decision every time, kept AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Alex) down on the rail in behind, willing to risk traffic for saving ground. The first quarter was a sensible :23.42 and the half was :47.25. As they hit the far turn, Castellano began to sneak his way into contention; picking off horses one by one while glued to the rail. At this point I was worried what he was going to do when Miner's Reserve backed up into him, but there was nothing to fear. The field turned for home with Miner's Reserve desperately clinging to the lead and a host of challengers to his outside. Castellano was able to swing to his outside and when he passed him it was his Travers to lose. The only closer doing any serious running was Fly Down (Mineshaft), who looked like he would go right on by but never switched to his correct lead. Afleet Express and Fly Down matched strides through the final furlong and it was Afleet Express with his nose down on the wire. It was another heartbreaking Travers for Nick Zito as Fly Down just missed. For Afleet Express' trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, it was redemption with a heaping dose of revenge as he beat A Little Warm, owned by Edward Evans, who took all his horses, including Quality Road (Elusive Quality), away from Jerkens last year. For Castellano, it was par for the course as he has been riding spectacularly all year and is battling Velazquez down to the wire for the riding title. Saratoga is known as the "Graveyard of Favorites" and it welcomed 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra to those that lost when they could not lose. Similarly to Saturday, it was hot and sunny and the main track continued to dry as the water trucks tried to keep up. By the time the Personal Ensign (G1) was run around 6 p.m. (ET), it resembled sand up by the boardwalk instead of the sand down near the water. The last main track race was run at 3:09, with the next four contested on the turf, and the main track, while being watered and harrowed, came up pretty cuppy for the Personal Ensign. We all know that Rachel was run down in the stretch by PERSISTENTLY (Smoke Glacken) after putting away Life at Ten (Malibu Moon), who had won her last six starts. And lots of questions are raised about Rachel Alexandra's ability to get 10 furlongs, will she retire, where will she run next if she does not retire or why did Calvin send her to the lead? I'll leave the answers to all those questions to others but one thing is certain: if Rachel was ever going to get 10 furlongs, it was not going to be on a main track that was as deep and tiring as Sunday's was. Show me the last Grade 1 stakes race at 10 furlongs where the last quarter was run in :26.95 and that was off a mile in 1:37.54. Still don't think dirt tracks change not only from day to day but during the day?
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