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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 22, 2010 by Dick Powell The televised debate for the Governor of New York State this week had a candidate named Jimmy McMillan who is the nominee of the "The Rent is Too Damn High" party. When he would respond to the moderator's questions, he would inevitably end his single-issue speech with "...The rent is too damn high." While watching Mr. McMillan direct every issue back to the rent being too damn high, it occurred to me that maybe this is just what we need in horse racing. Instead of analyzing to death all the nuances of the issues that plague our sport, maybe we need the single-mindedness of Mr. McMillan. Maybe, we need Mr. McMillan himself to be our leader. Maybe we need Mr. McMillan to head up a new movement called "The Takeout is Too Damn High!" The Breeders' Cup is fast approaching and there was a perfect example of how dominant the European shippers will be on the turf races up at Woodbine last weekend. There were three Grade 1 stakes races run there and all three were won by Euro shippers. In the Nearctic S. (Can-G1) going six furlongs on the turf, SERIOUS ATTITUDE (Ire) (Mtoto) rallied from dead last to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths under Garrett Gomez. Winless this year in five starts in Great Britain, she was dismissed at 23-1 odds. The trend continued in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (Can-G1) for filly and mares going 1 1/4 miles when REGGANE (GB) (Red Ransom) employed the same last-to-first tactics to get up by a length. Ridden by Christophe Soumillon, she went off at 10-1 odds even though her only stakes win came in a listed race. So the betting public was wisely betting the Euros, but it was still a question of what Euro to bet on. Finally, in the Canadian International S. (Can-G1) for older horses going 1 1/2 miles, the betting public had their choice of four Euro shippers. Redwood (GB) (High Chaparral [Ire]) won the Northern Dancer (Can-G1) last out in his North American debut and was made the 22-10 favorite. Chinchon (Ire) (Marju) won the United Nations (G1) two starts back and then went back to France where he was up the track in the Prix Foy (Fr-G2). Mores Wells (GB) (Sadler's Wells) is a six-year-old that has only won Group three stakes in his career, and JOSHUA TREE (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) won a Group 2 stakes last year as a juvenile and was winless in two starts this year for the powerful Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien team. After six furlongs were run in a dawdling 1:18.48, the field was tightly bunched. Redwood turned for home in heavy traffic and Mores Wells was bumped around. Joshua Tree found the "good" turf to his liking and he took advantage of his four-pound weight concession to win by a head. Mores Wells nosed out Redwood for the place as the Euros swept the board. You could easily argue that the North American-based turf horses that competed at Woodbine on Saturday were not our "A" team since very few of them will show up at the Breeders' Cup. But, you would also have to agree that this was not the Euros' "A" team either. In fact, you could argue that this was really the Euros' "C" team since the "A" team doesn't always come to the Breeders' Cup. The fact is, the Euros' "B" team is better than our "B" team and it is not a stretch to recognize that their "A" team is better than our "A" team even with the home-court advantage at Churchill Downs. You still have to come up with the right Euro. It is unlikely that they will dominate all the turf races but depending on who they send, they will be very hard to beat. FRANKEL (Galileo [Ire]) is the bomb. There is no other way to describe him. He is now four-for-four in his juvenile career after dominating the Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) last Saturday at Newmarket going seven furlongs. In what was being billed as the "Race of the Century," Frankel showed how farcical the hype was as there was never really any race. His vanquished rivals did not put up a fight but what made his performance so memorable was that he was not at his best either. Bumped at the start, he trailed the field and ran somewhat sideways with his head pointing to his left. When called on by Tom Queally, his response was immediate, but once he took the lead he strode to the wire on his wrong lead. Frankel didn't get many style points for the race, but his rivals were strewn about behind him. His owner/breeder, Juddmonte Farms, have won 16 Group/Grade 1 stakes races this year and came right back the next race in the Champion Stakes (Eng-G1) with a hard-fought repeat victory by TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) to cap a memorable double for Queally and trainer Henry Cecil. It looks like Frankel will be put away for the winter with the one-mile Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) as his immediate goal. There is some doubt whether he can be a 1 1/2-mile Derby (Eng-G1) horse but with his pedigree and finishing kick, who's to say that he can't. If you have been playing Keeneland this meet, you have seen how much speed has been carrying on the main track. In the past, speed did well going one turn but this year speed continues to dominate; even going two turns. This has been true regardless of the weather as I found out thinking it would change when the sun came out. For the rest of the meet, it looks like forwardly-placed horses running on the inside will continue to have an edge.
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