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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JANUARY 5, 2007 by Dick Powell Gulfstream Park opened for its 63rd season of racing on Wednesday with improvements for simulcast customers' ability to see the horses being saddled and walked in the paddock. With slots in their infancy at the Hallandale, Florida, oval, purses have already been increased by 17 percent with straight maidens running for $44,000. The meet will be highlighted by the Sunshine Millions on January 27 and the Florida Derby (G1) day of racing on March 31. Last year, Barbaro became the 20th Florida Derby competitor to win the Kentucky Derby (G1). Seventeen Florida Derby competitors have won the Preakness (G1), and 14 have won the Belmont S. (G1). As always, the beginning of the meet will showcase highly talented three-year-olds looking to break their maidens or move up the condition ladder. Last year saw Bernardini, Showing Up (Strategic Mission) and Pine Island all break their maiden at Gulfstream, and this year's meet is expected to attract five winners from last year's Breeders' Cup. Last year, we had a lot of difficulty handicapping the turf course until some research turned up some trends. What we found was that when the rail is out at its farthest lane (84'), wide closers seem to have an advantage. We also found that when the rail was down or at 12', inside speed did very well. Wednesday's opening day featured three turf races run over a turf course listed as "good" with the rail out at 84'. And while one day of an 88-day meet is not enough empirical evidence to prove my turf theory still holds, the three turf races saw no surprises in the winning running styles. The 5TH race was a claiming event for four-year-olds and up with price tags from $25,000 to $30,000. ORACLE OF OMAHA (Louis Quatorze) stalked the pace three wide and drew off to a handy win over 26-1 longshot Ambassador Dan (Statesmanship), who angled out turning for home to get the place and complete a $107.80 exacta. In the 7TH, a maiden for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles, I settled on Dug In (Snuck In), who showed a very strong closing kick and good BRIS Late Pace figures in his two prior turf starts. Breaking from post 9 with John Velazquez aboard, it looked to me that Dug In would take back from his outside post and sit far off the pace before rallying wide. However, when the gates opened up, Dug In broke well and wound up vying for the lead right out of the gate. Velazquez had him relaxed while on the rail in the run down the backstretch but even with a pedestrian first half mile in :50.09, I wasn't happy to be setting the pace. Around the far turn, Dug In began to assert himself. He repulsed two challenges next to him and turned for home with a clear lead. With a furlong to go, he held a 2 1/2-length lead, but here came the wide closers. Duveen (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) was making his turf debut for Dale Romans and it looked like he might win, but Storming Marine (Stormy Atlantic) was also making a wide move to join the fray. A three-horse finish suddenly became four when the Bill Mott-trained VANQUISHER (Gulch), who was making his turf debut with first-time Lasix, stormed down the middle of the course and got up in time to win by a neck. Dug In faded to fourth in the drive to the wire after looking like he might be home free 200 yards from the wire. The last turf race on Gulfstream's opening day was the 9TH, a one-mile event for three-year-olds running for claiming tags between $65,000 and $75,000. A BIT OF MADNESS (West Acre) broke poorly from his inside post, was shuffled to the rear before getting to the outside from where, according to the chart, he "angled out widest of all in the stretch" to win going away. Dippi Trippi (Trippi) almost went gate to wire in his turf debut and merits following when the turf rail is set on the inside. According to BRIS' Track Bias Stats, closers do well on the Gulfstream turf course regardless of where the rail is placed. In 77 races going a mile last year, the speed bias was only 32 percent and only 13 percent of the races were led gate to wire. In 137 races going 1 1/16 miles in 2006, the speed bias was 44 percent with 17 percent going gate to wire. And, in 40 races going 1 1/8 miles last year, the speed bias was 42 percent and only 8 percent went gate to wire. But if you follow the rail placement, especially at the outer extremes of 72 and 84 feet and the inner extremes of 0 and 12 feet, you can fine tune your handicapping, giving an edge to deep closers when the rail is far out and inside speed when the rail is on the inside of Gulfstream's expansive turf course. The rail placement is not going to be listed the next time these horses run back so you are going to have to keep track of where the rail has been placed. Usually, Gulfstream stays with the same rail placement for an entire week, but sometimes inclement weather or major turf stakes races might force a one-day change. Pay attention and keep notes. It's not that hard - just download and print the charts from BRIS each day. The 3RD race on Gulfstream's opening day featured three newly-turned four-year-olds that should have an impact on this year's handicap division. Champ Safi (Louis Quatorze) and Barcola (Old Trieste) dueled through fast fractions of :46.85 and 1:10.93, with FAIRBANKS (Giant's Causeway) sitting in the garden spot under Velazquez. Velazquez waited patiently until pulling out in the stretch with Fairbanks and drawing away to a 3 1/2-length victory over Barcola. Champ Safi finished third. Last year, Fairbanks won his first two route races on dirt for currently suspended trainer Todd Pletcher, including a nine-length allowance romp at Saratoga. He tried graded stakes company for the first time in the Pegasus S. (G3) last October when he showed little in a very fast race. Trained to the minute at Palm Meadows by Anthony Sciametta, who's overseeing Pletcher's string in Florida, Fairbanks covered the nine furlongs on Gulfstream's main track in a graded-stakes quality 1:48.77. Because Fairbanks is owned by Team Valor, I would expect to see him in the Donn H. (G1) on February 3 as a test to see if he is ready for the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) at the end of March. Team Valor is not afraid to ship horses, but Fairbanks will need to show more to secure an invitation to the world's richest race. Barcola has shown glimpses of talent in the past, including a 16-length victory in his previous start on the Aqueduct inner dirt track against first-level allowance foes. He earned a BRIS Speed figure of 105 in that race and if he's ever able to relax a bit better on the lead, he should be extremely tough in the typical small fields that handicap races tend to attract.
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