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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 5, 2007 by Dick Powell If you didn't pay attention to racing last weekend, you have no shot at the upcoming Breeders' Cup. Four weeks from the big event, just about all the divisions saw action as racetracks have responded to trainers' desire to have a month between races. The Vosburgh S. (G1) was the 7TH race at Belmont Park on Sunday and it drew a field of eight. Discreet Cat (Forestry) was sent off as the 95-100 favorite despite running poorly back in March going 10 furlongs in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Returning from an 85-day layoff, FABULOUS STRIKE (Smart Strike) gunned from the starting gate, dueled with Talent Search (Catienus) through a half in :44.51, then pulled away to a 5 3/4-length victory over that rival. Discreet Cat had trouble keeping up early, never looked comfortable and only because of his tremendous class was he able to win the photo for third. Trained by Todd Beattie, Fabulous Strike is a large, long-striding sprinter that did not care for the wet track at Calder last out in the Smile Sprint H. (G2). The problem he'll have in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) will be how he runs if doesn't break with the leaders? His long-stride will become a liability if he has to run in traffic. If there are four need-to-lead runners in the Sprint, I'll want Fabulous Strike to be on their outside. If he draws inside, I won't even use him in the exotics. Discreet Cat never looked good in the Vosburgh and despite talk about him running in the new Breeders' Cup Mile, I think Godolphin will give him time off and point for the Cigar Mile (G1) at the end of November at Aqueduct. Next up at Belmont was the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1). The public made ENGLISH CHANNEL (Smart Strike) the prohibitive 2-5 favorite over a relatively weak field. Winner of this race last year in a wide trip, English Channel was covered up this time by Johnny Velazquez, who kept him on the inside every step of the way. When a hole finally opened up at the eighth pole, English Channel accelerated brilliantly through it; cruising to an easy 2 1/4-length win over Stream of Gold (Ire) (Rainbow Quest). The final time of 2:25.73 was solid, and English Channel covered his last quarter in just over 23 seconds. I've never felt that English Channel was at his best going 12 furlongs, but he loves Monmouth's turf course and has enough tactical speed to gain position. I always favor the international horses in these spots but if the turf is firm and English Channel draws well, I might make an exception. Todd Pletcher has been in a slump for the past three months, but there are signs that he's snapping out of it. In the Beldame S. (G1), it was back to the good old days with a sweep of the top two spots. UNBRIDLED BELLE (Broken Vow) was in traffic around the far turn with Ramon Dominguez sitting up in the saddle awaiting room. Velazquez had Indian Vale (A.P. Indy) in a drive and after putting away favored Ginger Punch (Awesome Again), it looked like she had clear sailing to the line. But on the outside came Unbridled Belle, who got untracked with an inside-outside move by Dominguez turning for home. The winner of the Delaware H. (G2) in July, she closed relentlessly to get up to win by a head at nearly 7-1 odds; keying a $72 exacta with her Pletcher-trained stablemate. Lightly raced this year, she goes to Monmouth with very few questions about her chances. The main event on Sunday at Belmont was the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) which was really a two-horse race between CURLIN (Smart Strike) and Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr). Usually, the edge in these type races goes to the horse with the pace advantage. But, Preakness (G1) winner Curlin is a special horse. Lawyer Ron was a bit rank in the early part of the run down Belmont's long backstretch, but finally settled down nicely off Brother Bobby's (Out of Place) modest early pace. After a half in :47.88 and three quarters in 1:11.66, Velazquez waited as long as he could for the expected challenge of Curlin. Robby Albarado was content to bide his time early and didn't really go after Lawyer Ron until he neared the top of the stretch. Lawyer Ron seized the lead from Brother Bobby and spurted to a clear lead with a furlong to run, but Curlin was closing relentlessly on his outside. With a 24 and change last quarter, Curlin wore down a game Lawyer Ron and got up by a neck in 2:01.20. While everyone else in the race has a 20-gallon gas tank, Curlin seems to have a five extra gallons. With a cardio-vascular system that is second to none, he is at his best going longer and the 10 furlongs of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) will be right up his alley. I only wish Lawyer Ron could have held on for the win to get a better price on Curlin. As good as Lawyer Ron has been, I still think his best distance is nine furlongs and will toss him at Monmouth. Curlin's win in the Gold Cup capped an unbelievable streak of three Grade 1 stakes wins in less than two hours for his sire, Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector). The fact that one was a six-furlong sprint, another was 1 1/2 miles on the grass and the third was at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles is unbelievable and might even be unprecedented. When you breed sprint sensation Mr. Prospector to the dam of distance mare Dance Smartly, you are supposed to get a sire that can produce offspring that can go short or long on either dirt or turf. The problem is it rarely happens so when it does you have to really stand back and applaud. Smart Strike is truly a great sire and his accomplishment on Sunday capped off a tremendous day of racing at Belmont. On Saturday at Belmont, LAHUDOOD (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) rallied up the inside with Alan Garcia to win the Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) going away. Dismissed at 21-1 odds, she stalked a slow pace while covered up on the inside and exploded when room opened. According to the chart of the race, Lahudood ran the last quarter in 22 and change. The Flower Bowl was not the only 10-furlong turf event for fillies and mares run on Saturday. At Santa Anita, NASHOBA'S KEY (Silver Hawk) kept her unbeaten record intact with a measured win over Citronnade (Lemon Drop Kid). Content to sit second behind the 9-10 favorite, Joe Talamo stalked a modest pace aboard Nashoba's Key and waited patiently. Still behind by a length with a quarter mile to go, Talamo asked his filly for a response and she went up after Citronnade with a vengeance. Nashoba's Key collared Citronnade in the deep stretch and went on to a three-quarter length win. At level weights and with Peeping Fawn (Danehill) put away for the year by Aidan O'Brien, she'll be tough at Monmouth around the tight turns of its turf course. Juveniles were in action at Santa Anita on the weekend. The newly-installed Cushion Track generates unbelievably fast running times so keep that in mind when horses that have run on it show up in their next start. In the Oak Leaf S. (G1) for juvenile fillies going 1 1/16 miles, Bob Baffert sent out CRY AND CATCH ME (Street Cry) off a sensational maiden win last out at Del Mar and the betting public made her the 7-5 favorite. Wide on the first turn when sent up for the lead by Mike Smith, Cry and Catch Me set a decent pace in her two-turn debut while under pressure most of the way. Whether it was the speed-favoring Cushion Track or she's just that good, Cry and Catch Me held off all challengers to win by a head over Izarra (Distorted Humor), who might have been best but was wide most of the way. When they show up at Monmouth Park for the Juvenile Fillies (G1), Izarra will get a lot of support considering she was wide and up against a bias. But don't discount Cry and Catch Me just yet. She might get a similar speed-carrying track at Monmouth and her sire, Street Cry (Ire), is proving to be a source of stamina on the dirt. On Sunday, the Norfolk S. (G1) was run at the same distance as the Oak Leaf. Salute the Sarge (Forest Wildcat) was made the 9-5 favorite off his good second last out in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). DIXIE CHATTER (Dixie Union) was the 29-10 second choice off a wide-trip fifth in the same race. The betting public had the right two horses, but in the wrong order. Salute the Sarge was wide every step of the way from post 9 and was still there in the deep stretch. Richie Migliore had Dixie Chatter in a drive on the outside after saving ground around the far turn and went on to a 1 1/4-length win and completed a very generous $25.20 exacta. Mike Smith used a similar ground-saving trip on the far turn and then swing wide for clear running move in the Goodwood S. (G1) aboard TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) on Saturday. Sitting behind a three-horse speed duel, Migliore swung off the rail midway around the far turn just in time as Awesome Gem (Awesome Again) was making a big middle move out in the middle of the track. Tiago had Awesome Gem breathing down his neck for the last three furlongsm but held on by a nose under left-hand urging from Smith. Awesome Gem ran another strong race after having just missed in the Pacific Classic (G1) on the slow Polytrack. He ran huge here on Cushion Track. An improving four-year-old gelding, he'll be a stretch factor at Monmouth. Saturday at Turfway Park was the Kentucky Cup Classic (G2), which was a virtual match race between Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense (Street Sense [Ire]) and runner-up HARD SPUN (Danzig). Fresh off a victory in the King's Bishop (G1) in his last start going seven furlongs, Mario Pino used Hard Spun's speed to his advantage, seizing the lead out of the gate and then backing the pace down. With a first half in :48.18, Cal Borel had to use Street Sense a lot sooner than he wanted and every time he got close, Pino would let it out a notch. The pace quickened with a :23.28 third quarter, but Borel could not get by his rival who was carrying two pounds less. At the top of the stretch, Borel shook Street Sense up but could not get by Hard Spun, who went on to a 1 1/4-length win in 1:48.48. As far as Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) preps, this one didn't prove much. With four weeks to go, neither horse was primed and ready for a huge effort. The small field and lack of pace gave Hard Spun a big edge. Street Sense needed the race and probably got exactly what trainer Carl Nafzger wanted. I don't see Hard Spun getting an easy lead like this at Monmouth, but he's shown in the past that he can relax early. If you like either horse, the Kentucky Cup Classic will not get you to change your mind.
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