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TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
Saturday's $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile S. (G1) has attracted a deep and contentious field of nine, with several holding strong chances of victory. SHAKIS (Ire) (Machiavellian) enters in razor-sharp form for Kiaran McLaughlin, prompting us to give him the slight edge at Keeneland. The seven-year-old veteran didn't show a great deal in Europe and Dubai, but he has taken giant strides since coming stateside. An impressive allowance/optional claiming winner in his American bow at Belmont, Shakis was beaten a grand total of a head when third to Better Talk Now (Talkin Man) and English Channel (Smart Strike) in the Manhattan H. (G1). Last time out, he finished best of all to capture the nine-furlong Bernard Baruch H. (G2) in course-record time at Saratoga. He picks up 10 pounds here, while cutting back to a flat mile for the first time in four years, but we find it hard to oppose the hot horse. Alan Garcia rides the Shadwell Stable colorbearer, whose owner sponsors this race. COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid) is eligible to rebound from his tiring fifth as the favorite in the Bernard Baruch. The Patrick Biancone charge pressed a pretty demanding pace that day, and complicating his task, he gave Shakis six pounds. Cosmonaut sports a respectable mark at this distance (5-2-1-0), including a fourth in the 2006 Shadwell, and we think he's a better horse this year. The last time he raced over this oval, in April, he rolled to a 3 3/4-length allowance score. The gray figures to enjoy a stalk-and-pounce trip beneath Julien Leparoux. Irish invader ASTRONOMER ROYAL (Danzig) has a profile roughly similar to Aussie Rules, who shipped in to take last year's running of this race for Aidan O'Brien. Hailing from that same Ballydoyle empire, Astronomer Royal emulated Aussie Rules by capturing the French Two Thousand Guineas (Fr-G1). Unlike Aussie Rules, however, Astronomer Royal arrives at Keeneland on the heels of two disappointing efforts against Group 1 rivals in France. Compared to the beasts he faced when seventh in the Prix du Moulin (Fr-G1) -- Darjina (Zamindar), Ramonti (Martino Alonso) and George Washington (Ire) (Danehill) -- this is a class drop, and first-time Lasix should help. John Velazquez picks up the mount. T. D. VANCE (Rahy) is a fascinating dark horse for Graham Motion at 8-1 on the morning line. The bay gelding claims a course-and-distance victory in the 2005 Bryan Station S., but he has been plying his trade as a turf sprinter in his last several starts. After he got up in time in the 5 1/2-furlong Troy S. at Saratoga in his 2007 debut, Motion indicated that he'd try to stretch him out again, so this is a carefully considered plan on the part of an astute horseman. T. D. Vance is a live contender who is likely to be overlooked in the wagering. PURIM (Dynaformer) hasn't been terribly consistent, but he's tough when he's on his game. The Tom Proctor trainee was a close third in the Maker's Mark Mile S. (G2) here during the spring meet, going down by a total of three-quarters of a length to Kip Deville (Kipling) and Showing Up (Strategic Mission). Purim signaled that he's returning to form when landing the John Henry S. at Arlington Park in his latest venture, and he too has upset potential. SPOTSGONE (Bright Launch) will go straight to the front and try to hang on. That strategy worked to perfection twice at Arlington, in the Hanshin Cup H. (G3) on the Polytrack and the Sea O'Erin Breeders' Cup Mile H. on yielding turf. The pacesetter will find life more difficult against this group, but he could stick around long enough to round out the superfecta. ART MASTER (Royal Academy) has performed like a Grade/Group 3-level animal, and he's exiting a lackluster ninth in the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1). Moreover, he's just gotten over a quarter crack. Although we wouldn't be surprised if the Bobby Frankel charge turns in a top effort, Art Master doesn't inspire a world of confidence right now. ISTAN (Gone West) has never been better for Bill Mott, chalking up four stakes wins this season. The five-year-old has posted dominating victories in the Governor's H. and Turfway Park Fall Championship S. (G3) in his past two, but the burning question is whether he can transfer that ability to turf. While his pedigree is strongly positive, he hasn't tried the surface since his old European days, and it's probably no mere happenstance that he's raced exclusively on the main track in the United States. We'll give him a turf race at this level. INDEPENDENT GEORGE (Cozzene), Motion's other runner, has lured Corey Nakatani into the saddle. The gray convincingly captured the Presque Isle Mile S. on Tapeta last time out, but his turf form isn't earth-shattering.
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