ALL-Ways Newsletters
April 1999,
Number 13
ALL-WaysTM Newsletter
INSIDE THIS NEWSLETTER
Handicapping Tips
- Quirin Speed Points
A Good Day at Santa Anita
Did You Know?
- Special Uses for ALL-Ways Datafiles
- ALL-Ways Software and Other Windows Programs
ALL-Ways Version 7.1
The Comprehensive Ratings
- ALL-Ways Comprehensive and BRIS Prime Power Ratings
Downloadable Profiles
Announcements
ALL-Ways software version 7.1 is now available. The most notable new feature is the BRIS Prime Power Rating. Please see the article on page 4 for more information on what is included in this new release as well as how to obtain your copy.
Handicapping Tips
Quirin Speed Points
ALL-Ways software uses Quirin Impact Values to measure the power of each of it’s seventy one key handicapping factors. ALL-Ways software includes the powerful Quirin Race Shape concept which was reviewed in some depth in ALL-Ways Newsletter #4. Now, we would like to cover the third Quirin concept used in ALL-Ways software which is Quirin Speed Points.
Most pace handicapping methodologies consider the early pace of a race to be determined at the second call. This is at four furlongs in sprints and six furlongs in routes. The BRIS, Hall, Brohamer and Hambleton early pace ratings in ALL-Ways software, while developed using different methods, all measure a horse’s speed and/or velocity from the gate to the second call. Horse ESP Running Styles are also determined by the horse’s position and/or lengths behind at the second call. There is a good reason why so much emphasis is placed on the second call in pace handicapping methods. It works! Early pace ratings at the second call have absolutely passed the test of time.
This brings us to Quirin Speed Points which we will refer to as QSP. The QSP rating is determined by a horse’s propensity to be on the lead or up close at the first call. The first call is at two furlongs in sprints and four furlongs in routes. The QSP rating does not measure speed or velocity. It is a positional rating that reflects a horse’s desire ... will ... and ability to be on the lead or up close at this point in the race.
To calculate the QSP rating, up to three races are selected from the most recent five races in a horse’s past performance record. The specific races selected and the actual method of calculations are different depending on the distance of today’s race. The rating will be within a range of zero to eight (0 to 8). The higher the rating, the more likely the horse will be on the lead or up very close at the first call. Here is how to interpret these numbers.
8 points: Demonstrated desire/ability to be on the lead or 2nd or 3rd but within a neck of the lead at the first call.
7 points: Demonstrated desire/ability to be on the lead or 2nd or 3rd but within 2 lengths at the first call.
4, 5 & 6 points: Demonstrated desire/ability to stay in touch with the leaders at the first call. On occasion, will be among the first three horses at the first call, particularly in the absence of higher QSP rated horses in the race.
1, 2 & 3 points: Will generally be in the last half of the field at the first call.
0 points: Will be in the back of the field at the first call or has no qualifying races in its past performance lines.
Again, while early pace ratings and ESP running styles are measured at the second call, the QSP rating is determined at the first call. The QSP rating shows you how the race is likely to be run early on, right out of the gate. Here is a key point: A positional rating, such as QSP, is more effective and more helpful than a velocity or speed based pace rating at this point in a race. After all, most horses can run very fast for a short distance if they want to do so. The key is determining what kind of pressure a horse is going to come up against as it attempts to start the race in the manner it prefers.
Since the QSP rating is one of the ALL-Ways software seventy-one key handicapping factors, you can, of course, include it in Handicapping Profiles and you can run an Impact Value Analysis and a Top Three Analysis to gauge its power. You can also use the QSP rating as an important element in your personnel pace handicapping analysis. You should always consider a horses’s QSP rating in the context of all the other horses in a race. It is the match-up that counts. A QSP 4 horse in a race with QSP 6, 7 or 8 horses will most likely be several lengths off the pace. The same QSP 4 horse in a field of horses with QSP ratings under 4 may well get the lead at the first call. Consider a two point QSP differential to be quite significant.
Here are some observations we have developed as we have used this powerful handicapping factor.
Intensity of a Speed Duel
We know that races with “EE” and “EEE” Pace Shapes have two, three or more horses with an ESP Running Style of “E”. All these horses want to be on the lead. We know that the early speed duels that develop in such races can cause these horses to “burn themselves out”, setting the race up for horses coming from off the pace. We know if one of these “E” horses is clearly superior to the others, it has a chance of finishing in-the-money or even to win the race while the other “E” horses will most likely finish off-the-board.
The QSP rating gives us some important insight about how these Fast Pace Shape races will unfold. If two or three of the “E” horses have a QSP rating of 7 or 8, there is going to be a speed duel early on and it is more likely all this early speed will fall apart. This, of course, favors horses from off the pace. If the “E” horses have QSP ratings of 5’s and 6’s, then the speed duel will not be as severe and the “E” horses are more likely to play a role late in the race. If one of the “E” horses has a QSP rating of 8 and the others are in the range of 5’s and 6’s or less, then the horse with the 8 rating will probably “bury” the other “E” horses and could well wire the field despite the Fast Race Pace Shape.
Loose on the Lead
We consider races with ESP Pace Shapes of “E”, “EP” and “EP-P” as being Lone Early Pace races. We quite properly expect the lone early runners to have a strong chance of wiring the field if they have reasonable class and speed figures and are in decent form. If such a horse has a strong QSP rating of 7 or 8 and the other horses are down in the 5 and under range, the horse can be counted on to get a very large lead that may be insurmountable for the other horses. In Honest Pace Shape races (“E-EP” and “EP-EP”), if one of the “E” or “EP” horses has a big QSP rating advantage, then it may well get loose on the lead. In Slow Pace Shape races, a “P” horse with a QSP rating advantage could be the horse that gets the unexpected early lead and goes on to wire the race. Conversely, if all horses in a Slow Pace Shape race have low QSP ratings, say 3 and under, then there is a better chance that the horse with the best Final Fraction Rating will win the race because the field will probably stay pretty much intact all around the oval.
Evaluating Horses With an “EP” Running Style
Horses with a running style of “EP” are generally considered to have the best overall statistical chance of winning races assuming, of course, they are not hampered by poor speed figures, inferior class figures, poor form, etc. This is because these horses have a built-in tactical pace advantage. They can run on the lead or they can be rated to press the leaders from a little off the pace. They will always be within striking distance. With all that said, “EP” horses do not, of course, always win their races. The QSP rating helps us a lot here. If an “EP” horse has a QSP Rating of 7 or 8 along with other “EP” and/or “E” horses in the race, it will probably get caught up in the speed dual. A rating of 5 or 6, on the other hand, probably says the horse can rate off the pace and be ready to pass the tiring front runners down the stretch. “EP” horses with a high QSP rating in the 7 or 8 range in a race where the other horses are down in the 5 points and lower range could get loose on the lead and wire the field. If an “EP” horse has a QSP rating down around 4 or less, it may well lose its built in tactical pace advantage.
Post Position Analysis
Just how advantageous or disadvantageous is a particular post position? It is not enough to just look at post position statistics for the track because the pace match-up in the race can have an impact that overrides these statistics. The QSP rating gives us some powerful information to help us evaluate a horse’s post position. Here are three scenarios that pretty well cover the possibilities.
1) A horse with an inside post position and a high QSP rating versus outside post position horses that all have lower QSP ratings: This usually results in an easy uncontested lead for the inside horse.
2) A horse with an outside post position and a high QSP rating versus inside post position horses that all have lower QSP ratings: The outside horse will probably get the lead without too much difficulty, although the outside post makes it work pretty hard to get the lead and move to the rail. Nevertheless, such a horse can often go on to win.
3) Horses with high QSP ratings in both the inside and outside post positions: Plain and simple, the outside horses with big QSP rating will want to get the lead but will have a very difficult time because of all the early speed standing between them and the inside rail. This is often why outside posts are so poor in high caliber races such as the Kentucky Derby or the Breeder’s Cup. There often will be horses with high QSP ratings with inside post positions.
We have touched on a number of different ways to use Quirin Speed Points to help you with your pace analysis of a race. No doubt there are many other scenarios as well. One key point we are trying to make here is that what happens from the gate to the first call can have a profound influence on the pace match-up in a race. Quirin Speed Points are the best way we know for evaluating this early running in the race and deciding on how it will influence the outcome. And, now it is even easier for you to use the Quirin Speed Point rating because, in version 7.1, the rating is on the Contender Summary and Paceline reports as well as the All Factors report.
A Good Day at Santa Anita
On February 21, 1999, about the time this newsletter was being written, we hit some very nice payoffs in the 7th, 8th and 9th races at Santa Anita. Based on our handicapping the night before, we were looking forward to these races all day because ALL-Ways software had identified some potentially big plays. We included this article in the newsletter because Quirin Speed Points (previous article) played an important role in determining some of the wagers. Also, ALL-Ways software’s capability to evaluate first time starters and to include them in a complete oddsline for the race played a major role in making this a great payoff day.
Here is the race-by-race scenario. We start with races 5 and 6 because they formed the early legs of some wonderful Pick 3 wagers.
Race 5 (1 mile turf Claiming for females only)
This one was easy. Rare Charmer was the clear standout horse and was the first pick of both ALL-Ways software and the crowd. She paid $4.20 to win.
Race 6 (6 furlong dirt Maiden Claiming for 3 year old females)
After a late scratch of Inexcessive, who was the crowd favorite and ALL-Ways software’s original first pick, ALL-Ways software selected On Frozen Pond, a first timer, as its 5 to 2 second pick. This was a classic chaos race in that no horse had demonstrated any ability to run to today’s par time. The highest Hall Speed rating was 10 points below the Race Rating (which is also the par rating) for this race. On Frozen Pond went off at 29-1 and paid $60.20 when she won.
Race 7 (6 furlong dirt Allowance for 3 year old males and females)
This race had a Race Pace Shape of “EEE”. Actually, there were 4 “E” horses and 2 “EP” horses in the eleven horse field. One “E” horse had a Quirin Speed Point rating of 8. The other two “E’s” had Quirin Speed Point ratings of 7. Obviously, this was going to be a grueling speed duel. ALL-Ways software’s first pick, Starship, was an “E” horse with a Quirin Speed Points rating of 7. It also had a very significant Early Pace figure advantage (at least five points) over all other horses in the race. ALL-Ways software’s third pick was Generally, an “EP” horse with a Quirin Speed Point rating of 5. This horse was going to stay in touch with the leaders but not get caught up in the speed duel. We used Generally as our Key Horse in the Trifecta with Starship and with three “P” and “S” horses including What You Say, an ALL-Ways software’s Dangerous Non-Contender horse. What You Say had good Hall figures and was going off at 57 to 1. Generally won the race paying $11.40 to win. What You Say came in second paying $19.20 to place. Starship did hang on for third paying only $2.80 to show. Here are the other $2 payoffs.
Exacta $249.20
Trifecta $966.20
Pick 3 $985.60
Race 8 (6 furlong dirt Grade 3 Stakes for 3 year old females)
ALL-Ways software’s first pick was Enjoy the Moment, the lone early speed as an “E” horse. Enjoy the Moment’s speed figures were not particularly good. But, the horse had a Quirin Speed Point Rating of 8. All the other horses in the race had Quirin Speed Point ratings of 3 and under. This horse was clearly going to get away from the rest of the field and had a major opportunity for a gate-to-wire win. ALL-Ways software had this horse favored at 1 to 2. But the public let it go off as its third favorite at 11 to 5, a nice overlay indeed. Enjoy the Moment paid $6.40 to win. More importantly, the $2 Pick 3 paid a nice $3,260. This was the second Pick 3 score for us in this series and we were alive for the Pick 3 in the 9th race. We passed on the Exacta and Trifecta this race.
Race 9 (6 1/2 furlong dirt Maiden Claiming for 3 year and up females)
There were three first timers in the 9th race which ALL-Ways software had as its 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks. ALL-Ways software’s 1st and 5th picks were two experienced horses both with legitimate shots at winning the race. They demonstrated their ability to run to today’s par. ALL-Ways software’s 3rd pick was the first time starter named Dome Thrice. The horse had a decent pedigree, pretty good connections and nice workouts. It was not a standout horse, but clearly a contender for an in-the-money finish. ALL-Ways software had Dome Thrice as its 5-1 third choice. The crowd was ignoring the horse. She went to post at 76-1. We used Heidijims N’ Grant, ALL-Ways software’s fifth pick, but second favorite experienced horse, going off at 14 to 1, as our Key Horse in the Trifecta. We keyed her with the ALL-Ways software’s 1st pick and the three first timers. Domed Thrice won the race by a nose. The two experienced horses (ALL-Ways software’s first and fifth picks overall) finished in the money. Here are the $2 payoffs.
Win $154.60
Exacta $1,401.60
Trifecta $7,233.00
Double $386.60
Pick 3 $3,260.00
In hindsight, we wish we had been a bit more aggressive in our wagering (We played $1 Trifectas and Pick 3’s). But, as it was, we collected just short of $8,000 over the course of the last three races. We owe this day’s success to Quirin Speed Points in ALL-Ways software and to ALL-Ways software’s ability to handicap first time starters.
Did You Know?
Special Uses for ALL-Ways Datafiles
ALL-Ways Datafiles, with more than 1,500 fields of information, provide the data necessary to drive all the powerful analysis and handicapping capabilities in ALL-Ways software. Did you know these very same ALL-Ways Datafiles also provide all the data necessary to drive all versions of the BRIS Past Performance Generator software too? So, if you are currently using the BRIS PP Generator but not ALL-Ways software, you may want to consider getting the ALL-Ways Datafile so you can give ALL-Ways software a try as well. By the way, the ALL-Ways Datafiles also provide all of the input required for Capsheet software.
ALL-Ways Software and Other Windows Programs
Did you know you can easily switch back and forth between ALL-Ways software and other Windows programs when you use Windows 95, Windows 98 or Windows NT. Simply press the Control and Escape keys (Ctrl-Esc) to display the Window’s Task Bar and Start Button. This is a particularly useful feature for ALL-Ways software handicappers that want to handicap with ALL-Ways software while also working with the BRIS Super Tote Board.
ALL-Ways Software Version 7.1
ALL-Ways software version 7.1 is now available as a free upgrade for all Standard Edition users and all registered users of version 7.0 of the Professional Edition. While this is not a major upgrade (that will be coming in version 8.0 later this year), it is an important upgrade. A list of what is new is shown below. "Prime Power" refers to the BRIS Prime Power Rating.
• Prime Power on the Contender Summary report, Oddsline report Paceline report, and Past Performance report
• Prime Power Export to Spreadsheet and Database Programs *
• Comprehensive Rating on the Past Performance report
• Quirin Speed Points on the Contender Summary report and Paceline report
• Program (saddlecloth) Numbers on the Dangerous Non-Contender List
* Professional Edition Only
ALL-Ways Standard Edition handicappers can obtain version 7.1 from either the BRIS Dial-up Service or from the BRIS Internet site at www.brisnet.com. The software is available in a full installation version and as a simple patch. The Professional Edition will automatically be sent by Frandsen Publishing to registered users of ALL-Ways software Professional Edition 7.0.
The Comprehensive Ratings
ALL-Ways software version 7.1 now has two different ratings that evaluate each horse from a very comprehensive perspective. One is the familiar ALL-Ways Comprehensive Rating. The other is the BRIS Prime Power Rating which is new to ALL-Ways software. To provide some insight into these two ratings, we examined more than 30 full race cards run in February 1999 at Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita. The cards were selected at random. The only screening we did was to remove 16 races won by first time starters. This gave us a 310 race sample. We used the Export Function in the ALL-Ways software Professional Edition to put the races being examined into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.
The results show that these two ratings are indeed powerful and virtually identical in their statistical performance, even though they do not always agree on the top horse. They agreed on the top selection 167 time (54%). They selected different horses 143 times (46%). Here are some performance figures.
Wins by the Top Pick
The top Comprehensive horse won 98 times (31.6%). The top Prime Power horse won 93 times (30.0%). The top 167 horses that both ratings agreed upon won 58 times (34.7%). Wagering on these horses overcame most of the track takeout coming within just a few percentage points of being profitable. Had you bet both horses in the 147 races where the two ratings selected different horses, you would have won 75 races (52.4%) and you would have essentially broken even. These really are impressive results when you consider that just these comprehensive ratings can get you to break-even play.
We also evaluated how these top picks did for different race types and found remarkable consistency. The Comprehensive Rating did a bit better in Claiming and Stakes races. The Prime Power Rating did a bit better in Maiden races. Both did a bit better in routes than sprints. But overall, everything we examined turned up results within a couple percentage points of 30% wins.
Top Picks In-the-Money
The top Comprehensive horse finished in-the-money 205 time (66.1%). The top Prime Power horse finished in-the-money 187 times (60.3%). This would seem to indicate that you best consider these top horses for inclusion in your Exacta and Trifecta plays.
Wins by Top Three Picks
One of the top 3 Comprehensive Rating horses in each race won their race 211 times (68.1%). One of the top 3 Prime Power horses in each race won 205 times (66.2%). Now here is a really interesting finding. You could have wagered on both the second and third Comprehensive Rating horses in every race and turned a flat bet profit in the range of 6%. You could have done the same thing with the Prime Power horses and earned a flat bet profit in the range of 3%.
We think there are strong messages here. Pay attention to both of these comprehensive ratings. The horses identified by these ratings figure prominently in some way in most races. Using both the ALL-Ways Comprehensive Rating and the BRIS Prime Power Rating together is even more powerful than using them independently.
Downloadable Profiles
In October of 1998, we opened the User’s Corner of our Web site (www.frandsen.com). This is where we post ALL-Ways software Handicapping Profiles that have been created by other ALL-Ways software handicappers. You can download these profiles and use them in ALL-Ways software while you are building up your own Race Database for a track. At the time this newsletter went to press, we had 60 sets of profiles posted for 35 different tracks. This feature has proven to be very popular with ALL-Ways software handicappers. There have been literally thousands of sets of profiles downloaded during the past few months.
We thank all ALL-Ways software handicappers who have provided their profiles for sharing with others. We hope you will continue to help us keep this part of our Web site as current as possible. We also ask for other ALL-Ways software handicappers to consider sending us your profiles as well. It is very easy to do and will only take a few minutes of your time. Simple printed instructions are available on our Web site.
� Copyright 1999
Frandsen Publishing Corporation
PO Box 1439
Minnetonka, MN 55345
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How to reach
Frandsen Publishing
Phone: 612.937.9180
E-Mail: frandsen@mn.uswest.net
Web Site: www.frandsen.com