| August 2000 | VOL. 13, NO. 8 |
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5 FREE Neurax PRO datafiles in August! |
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Handicapping 101 with the Quick Play PP'sHaving handicapped now for almost 20 years, I know a good tool when I see one. Like many of you, I remember when the traditional Past Performances didn't even have the conditions of the races (e.g. ALL 1x) in the PP lines of the runners. Speed figures in the PP's? Pars? Pace Ratings? Forget about it! None of that stuff was available, and still isn't in some products on the market. Well, I love the new Quick Play PP's! This new Brisnet.com product is a revolutionary tool for handicappers, mainly because, like the Ultimate PP's, it actually lives up to its name. The first day I used it, I could see how much time it saved me in the often tedious handicapping process. At a glance, you can scan the Positive and Negative Summary Boxes for each runner, and see who is a contender and who is a pretender. You can also consult the four Rankings at the top of the race header: Speed Last Race, Prime Power, Class Rating, and Best Speed At Distance. Here, you can easily see if one runner alone stands out based on value-added BRIS Ratings. A runner ranked first on three or more categories is often a difficult horse to defeat. Of course, any runner with a significant advantage on Prime Power (3 or more points) is always a major threat and probably a "key" horse to wager on. To illustrate the advantages of the Positive Comments, check out the 5th race from River Downs on July 11. FORGIVEN leaped off the pages in this lackluster field of nine maiden claimers. As the Quick Play PP's point out, Forgiven had three strong factors in his favor this day. He was taking a major drop in class, from special weight company, to a bottom claiming price, and he was cutting back to a sprint. His best BRIS Speed Rating was faster than Par for this race. These comments pointed out to me that his best career race (Feb. 17 at Turfway Park) was at today's distance of six furlongs. That effort earned him a 73 Speed Rating, faster than the Par of 71. Here was a 20-percent trainer spotting his horse in the right company and cutting him back to his preferred distance. Best of all, Forgiven didn't have much to beat as the favorite had already been defeated in a maiden $5,000 claimer and had never gone the distance. At morning line odds of 12-1, what else could you ask for? Unfortunately Forgiven was bet down but still closed at healthy odds of 6.80-1. After making a big move on the turn for home under Collins, he drew off down the stretch for a decisive 3-length score. The maiden victor paid $15.60 and keyed a $157.60 exacta over the horse ranked second on Prime Power. The opposite scenario can be just as useful. Sometimes you will see a favorite with several negative factors going against him. With the Quick Play PP's it would be hard to overlook this type of underlay because the facts will be right there in front of you in black and white.
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Another Brisnet Customer Heading to Vegas!Joe Pachecho, a customer of BRIS since 1997, recently took first place in the Lone Star Park contest at Grand Prairie. Using the new Quick Play PP's, Joe rallied from 16th place on day one to take down the grand prize of $1,000 and more importantly a qualifying berth in the 2nd DRF National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas. "I love the Quick Play PP's!" stated Joe." They help me because it makes handicapper easier with the positive and negative summary boxes. The positive summary box helped me select a 35-1 longshot at Churchill Downs. The comments told me that the dam had produced two winners from two starters, and that the rail (one hole) was winning at a high 18% clip. That was enough for me because I knew I needed a longshot winner." Incredibly, Joe had to leave shortly before the end of the contest to drive a friend to the airport. He put in his last two plays and then found out much later that he had won the contest. His impressive $277.70 ending bankroll over the two days garnered him the title. Joe is one of four participants who will represent Lone Star next January as he competes for the NTRA Handicapper of the Year title and $200,000 in cash prizes. Congratulations Joe! |
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Angles from Spa to Surf
By Richard J. Nilsen Saratoga racecourse, open from July 26 to September 4, is a picture-perfect vacation spot, especially if you have a fondness for playing the ponies. Today, we look at a few angles that tend to work well at this historic racetrack, which is nestled in the beautiful Adirondack Mountains. Horses for Courses is a potent angle each year at the Spa. Some horses, like Fourstardave, just come alive when shipped to the Adirondack region. Here's a few to keep a close eye on for the 2000 meet: Affirmed Success - he loves the one-turn sprints here, but he also took to the turf at Belmont like a duck to water, so beware on any surface. Big City Dream - this Canadian runner is two for two here and a longshot threat if his trainer ships him "down south." Delay of Game - is he the next Fourstardave? He's won 4 years in a row up here! Double Screen - loves Saratoga sprints; very tough against state-bred company. Emily's Dad - undefeated in three career starts at the Spa. Another NY-bred. Gander - NY-bred needs a drop in class from recent starts. Has won from 6f to 9f here. Gold Princess - only Spa loss came in the Honorable Miss (G3). Jim's Mistake - erratic sort is always a threat at a price. Lumberman - has won four of five starts, all in sprints. Sejm's Madness - won twice at the Spa in '99 over the Inner Turf. Tejano Couture - allowance runner owns 3 wins at 1 1/8-miles.
According to Track Stats 2000 favorites won 36 percent of the races in '99, including 40% in Maiden events. Make sure you employ BRIS Pace Ratings at Saratoga, especially at 6 furlongs, where 37 percent of the races were won wire-to-wire. At 1 1/8-miles exactly one-third of the winners won in front running style, which is a high success rate for a route distance. The top four trainers were, in order: Mott, Lukas, Hough and Pletcher. The top jockeys consisted of Bailey, Prado, Chavez and Sellers. Prado produced a healthy +0.76 ROI from his 36 wins at the meet. However, the crowd is less likely to overlook Prado mounts so easily this time around. Finally, credit should be given to the NYRA, which finally realized that Rolling Pick-3's and Trifectas in every race (with six or more entries) are a must-have at Saratoga. This will be the first meet here in which these opportunities are available.
DEL MAR
Here, the public choice has fared even better, winning at a 37-percent clip in 1999, according to Track Stats. The favorites won 42 percent of the 3yo&up Allowance events last meet. Bob Baffert, the leading trainer, probably contributed to those numbers. He was followed by Mitchell, Hess, and Frankel in the standings. The jockeys were led by David Flores, then Solis, Nakatani, and Antley. Horses for Courses is also a strong angle near the Surf, and we've got a few runners to watch at the upcoming meet: Casey Griffin - won his first two starts here, one long, one short. Cover Gal - Cal-bred loves the Del Mar dirt. �migr� - never worse than second in four tries sprinting. Joe Who - undefeated in three stakes attempts. Lexicon - ran a 115 BRIS Speed in last Del Mar effort. Enough said. National Saint - watch for the stretchout by Baffert here. Stormy Jack - would appreciate a return to the dirt at Del Mar. Sweet for a Moment - two for three in claiming company here. Theresa's Tizzy - has won for four different trainers at DMR! Your Halo - won three times sprinting for Mitchell.
Good luck, and enjoy the best racing in the country from Spa to Surf!
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