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Sometimes as a handicapper you don�t like a horse. When they beat you it can be annoying, but if your dislike of a horse is based in sound wagering principles, you can make money.
In the Amsterdam Stakes (Saratoga Race 8, August 2nd, 2003), Posse was coming off three straight wins, including a nose win over the highly regarded Midas Eyes at Belmont Park on June 7th. But there were several factors going against him.
(1) He was a closer in a race that didn�t have a lot of pace in it, and the track was definitely favoring early speed.
(2) He hadn�t raced in 56 days.
(3) He ran poorly at Saratoga in his one start as a two year old.
But the overwhelming factor to try to beat Posse was the odds offered by the crowd. Despite Posse�s negatives, he was the even-money favorite. My friend and I saw an opportunity.
My friend Gord liked Zavata in the win hole at odds of 3/1. Zavata had some good races as a two year old (beating Posse at Churchill), and Gord thought he might be cranked for a top effort as the best inside early speed. Jerry Bailey up was certainly a plus.
But the key to the race was the exacta. Gord and I both liked Great Notion to run a good race. Great Notion was a nose away from being undefeated in his three sprint races, but the most recent sprint race was January 4th, 2003. After that race, his connections decided to try the route game for the Triple Crown money, with mixed success. Fresh, speedy and with top jockey Pat Day up, Great Notion was a nice overlay at 21-1.
Recap: to determine their ability to run well in a graded 6 furlong sprint, Gord went beyond the last race or two in the PPs on both Zavata and Great Notion. He didn�t like Posse, especially at even-money and saw this as a potential �crush� race.
How to play the race: I bet Great Notion to win at 21-1 for a small wager. Gord bet Zavata to win at 3-1 for a sizeable wager. We bet both horses in the exacta box.
Race Result: Zavata tracked Trust n Luck from the inside, drew out in the lane and won under a hand ride by 5 � lengths. Not a bad �best bet� selection. Great Notion got off sluggishly, raced up into contention, could not go with Zavata for the win but was trying hard and outlasted Trust N Luck for second. The exacta was worth $127.00 for a $2 investment.
-- Tony Kelzenberg is a long time Brisnet.com member who relies on BRIS performance ratings in his handicapping.
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