July 2004

VOL. 17, NO. 7

Table of Contents

HR Workout Advice
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Understanding Track Biases
July 4th Wizard Sale
Calendar
At Your Service

HAVE YOUR OWN PRIVATE CLOCKER IN JULY!

In May Brisnet.com introduced the Handicapper's Report Clocker Service. A fixture in Southern California since 1975, the Handicapper�s Report is relied on daily by top Thoroughbred owners and leading handicappers. Now you can give this service a test drive in July. Brisnet.com and HR have teamed up to offer you 5 FREE Daily Clocker Reports as well as discounted meet subscription packages for Del Mar and Saratoga*. By tapping into the HR service you will feel like you have your own private clocker! Let's take an in-depth look at how this professional service can help you profit at the races. *see site for details

CASH IN BIG WITH WORKOUTS

An underappreciated aspect of handicapping horses involves the evaluation of workouts. Despite their supreme importance to the horse's overall fitness, workouts are routinely ignored or misinterpreted by handicappers. This is largely because the official workout information available to the general public can be woefully misleading.

The official time of a published workout by itself doesn't mean very much without an understanding of the various circumstances under which the workout occurred.

Was the horse all out or under wraps?
Does the trainer tend to work his horses fast or slow?
What was the trainer trying to get the horse to do in the workout?
Did the horse show quick early speed or finish strong late?

The Handicapper's Report (HR) Daily Clocker Reports provide answers to questions like these and many more. Each report provides you with access to the private clockings and personal observations of racings most respected private clockers. How can this improve your game? The information contained in the HR Daily Clocker Reports will give you a better view of the current fitness and ability of the horses you're considering to wager on or against. In a game where the handicapper must make numerous assumptions and assessments in every race, the keen insights of an experienced clocker can help the handicapper make more accurate assessments. Also, the information contained in the Clocker Reports can give you a unique perspective on a horse that can't be inferred from the past performances. And, since the information provided by HR's private clockers is not widely disseminated (available exclusively through Brisnet.com), it has tremendous wager value.

So what are some of the best uses of the workout information from Handicapper's Report?

Uncovering long-odds horses which possess tell-tale positive signs in their recent workouts.

Eliminating short-odds horses which show negative signs in their recent workouts.

Quickly noting which horses have most impressed HR's private clockers (HR Fit & Ready Lists).

Despite their tremendous value, HR's workout information is not a magic bullet.

It will not lead you to the winner of every race. But, as part of your regular handicapping arsenal, HR's workout information will improve your bottom line...more winners, less losers, and better prices. Always keep in mind that workouts are simply a part of the handicapping puzzle...albeit, a very important and underappreciated part of the handicapping puzzle. The longer you use the information, the more you'll learn how to best use the information.

Listed below are some general comments and useful tips for using the HR Clocker Reports:

Emphasis on Quality over Quantity
On average, HR's workout notes will cover 30-40% of the horses running each day. Handicapper's Report emphasizes quality and integrity in its workout notes over quantity or "invented works."

If the HR clocker caught the work, it is reported and assessed. If the HR clocker didn't catch the work, it won't be reported or assessed.

Most Meaningful Workouts
The HR Clocker Reports are particularly helpful when assessing horses with little or no recent form, horses in new surroundings, and horses making any noteworthy changes. They are a great tool for evaluating first time starters, lightly raced horses, layoff returnees, shippers, and those starting in new barns or racing with new equipment. The Clocker Reports are also excellent tools to anticipate or corroborate a change in a horse's overall form/condition...any horse which noticeably improves in a workout is a candidate to show improvement in his/her upcoming races.

Least Meaningful Workouts
When experienced horses show multiple recent starts, trainers will regularly employ a schedule of maintenance works which are merely used to hold/keep a horse racing fit. Little to no insight can be gained from these maintenance works - as the horse is not asked for a serious effort. Many of these maintenance works can be found amongst the horses racing at the lower claiming levels. Generally speaking, unless a horse shows a surprisingly good or bad effort in his/her recent works, little knowledge can be gained from horses with well established form.

Some positive signs/clues which may indicate a horse is ready to show improved form:

Any horse which receives a high graded or much improved workout for the first time in a long while or a series of improving works. In other words this work(s) may indicate a potential change in previous form.

Any horse whose recent improved works coincide with a recent, meaningful change (e.g., barn switch, equipment change, etc.).

Any horse which makes a favorable impression while working in company with a notably more accomplished horse.

Any unraced or inexperienced horse which has clearly outworked another (while working in company) and that outworked horse makes a favorable impression in an actual race.

Any horse whose recent workout elicits strong words of praise from the HR clocker (e.g. "ready for a smasher", "impressive", etc.).

Any horse which appears on the Weekly or Daily Fit & Ready List.

A good, long work with a strong finish is always a positive sign for a horse stretching out.

The sneaky workout, which tries to hide a horse's true form by burying excellent speed fractions (indicating a horse can run) within a pedestrian workout time overall...the HR Clocker will alert you to these.

Some negative signs which indicate that a horse may be a disappointment in an upcoming race:

Any horse whose recent workout(s) elicit strong words of dissatisfaction from the HR clocker - particularly when the horse was asked for an effort by the rider.

Any first time starter in a sprint which has failed to show some early speed or exhibited repeatedly poor gate manners in their morning drills.

Any horse which has been ridden in the morning by a good jockey and, for no apparent reason, that jockey opts to ride another rival in the horse's next race.

Table of Contents

HR Workout Advice
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Understanding Track Biases
July 4th Wizard Sale
Calendar
At Your Service

NEW! Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files

For the first time ever Brisnet.com and Fransden Publishing are offering meet packages for Del Mar and Saratoga. At prices well below Gold discounted rates, the meet packages allow you to download ALL-Ways files for every day of the meet(s). The discounted packages are ideal for players looking to tackle these premier summer tracks.

Del Mar (43 days): $225 for entire meet

Saratoga (36 days): $189 for entire meet

Visit the link on the ALL-Ways data files page to take advantage of this rare opportunity. This offer may never come around again!

AWESOME SOFTWARE

"Ok guys......I have been testing and exploring and digging deep into ALL-Ways for about a few weeks now. I took advantage of Bris' June special of downloading free ALL-Ways files. I am absolutely amazed!! Out of the box, I am showing a good profit. But then I really started to peruse the owners manual (very comprehensive by the way), and became literally transfixed. My God....the possibilities are endless!! I believe that one could not only improve on perfection with all of the options available, but I am convinced that the total width and depth of this software is truly greater than the sum of its parts.

I downloaded a bunch of Santa Anita archived *.alw files and their respective exotic results files. Then I downloaded the profile for Santa Antia from your web site. At first I was getting a lot of short prices, and yet a profit because of so many winners. Then I decided to limit my plays on the basis of overlays ONLY! What a major difference that made!! Even playing 2 and sometimes 3 horses in the same race (only those that are overlays based on ALL-Ways Odds-line), yielded some major box-car payoffs.

In the 8th race at Santa Anita March 11, the software picked a 9-1 shot.....in a maiden claiming race nonetheless!!! Just had to write and let you know what an incredible job you folks have done with this software. I plan to use it extensively just to test my own theories about certain combinations of Impact Values over 2.0.........and so on... and so on! I am having a ball and looking forward to putting some real $$ investment into ALL-Ways picks. Keep up the good work!"

Craig Marsden
New ALL-Ways User

Table of Contents

HR Workout Advice
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Understanding Track Biases
July 4th Wizard Sale
Calendar
At Your Service

Understanding Track Biases

By Richard Nilsen

Your horse appeared to have a perfect trip but when he made his wide, sweeping move to confront the leader turning for home, his rival said "adios" and spurted away. Floundering in the stretch drive, your horse fails to hold on for second, costing you the exacta as well. All bets are lost and you're still shaking your head. Been there?

The culprit was track bias. Every racetrack has some type of bias that prevails over the course of an entire meet, while at the same time, also having biases that seriously affect the outcomes on a single day's races.

"One of the most difficult handicapping angles to properly assess is a track bias," asserts Michael Kipness, producer and founder of the Wizard selection sheets. "You can't make an early determination. It takes at least three or four races to come up with anything definitive. But most importantly in order to detect a bias on a given day, you have to handicap the races beforehand so you know how the race sets up for particular horses."

If you have not handicapped the races beforehand, then it becomes very difficult to determine a track bias on a given day. However, for long term biases, the task is easier thanks to the information in Brisnet.com�s Ultimate Past Performances.

Two Types of Bias
We have single-day or 'short term' track biases as well as predominant 'long term' biases.

To differentiate the two, here�s an example. A track may only have one strong bias, such as favoring inside posts in two-turn races. That would be deemed a 'long term' bias. However, during a three-day stretch in the middle of the meet, for example, this same track strongly favored closers in dirt sprints. That bias, which had nothing to do with the prevailing bias in route races, would be considered a 'short term' bias. Clues pointing to a short term bias can often be found in the "Week Totals" of the Ultimate PP Track Bias Summary.

Every track has its own peculiar characteristics, e.g. banking of the turns that help create prevailing biases that favor or disfavor certain running styles and post positions. This type of 'long term' bias can last an entire meet, and often, run across multiple seasons. The chance of this increases when the weather stays consistent, and the track superintendent does not alter the course in any significant way. In a nutshell a long term bias should influence your handicapping of this track on a daily basis. This can often be found in the "Meet Totals" of the Ultimate PP Track Bias Summary.

For more information on the Track Bias stats found in the Ultimate PPs, view the PDF explanation available at Brisnet.com.

When a predominant bias is influencing the outcome of the races, it is critical for the serious horseplayer to be cognizant of this fact. Such a bias could also cause a handicapper to direct his efforts towards a new track. With the proliferation of online and at-home wagering coupled with accurate track bias information, the opportunity is there for bettors to take advantage of biases anywhere throughout the country.

Table of Contents

HR Workout Advice
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Understanding Track Biases
July 4th Wizard Sale
Calendar
At Your Service

Fireworks Sale!
All Wizard Reports July 4th only $1 each

Put the Wizard to work for you this holiday. All Wizard files dated July 4th are only $1 each this year. It's the perfect opportunity to find the Wizard product that's right for you:

Daily Selections - full card analysis with top picks for all major tracks. Currently covering Churchill, Calder, Hollywood, Belmont and Lone Star. Del Mar and Saratoga sheets to debut later this month.

Pick of the Day - the Wizard scours the nation to find his one best value play. This popular report includes a pace analysis, detailed commentary, and professional wagering strategies. Available 7 days/week.

Simulcast Best Bets - all the Wizard's Crystal Ball plays from his daily sheets along with wagering strategies. The Pick of the Day is included at no extra charge. Perfect for the simulcast player!

Pick-3/Pick-6/Trifecta Plays - the Wizard extracts the best opportunities from all the major tracks to arrive at his preferred wagers. Let the Wizard help you nail a big score.

NTRA SUPER SATURDAY COVERAGE
Major Race Selections ($10) - the Wizard provides special combo packages with analysis and wagering strategies of several major races in one sheet. He'll be covering the following NTRA Pick4 races on Saturday, July 3: United Nations H., Suburban H., Firecracker Breeders' Cup, and American Oaks. Note that this special combo sheet is not part of the July 4th sale.

Other upcoming NTRA Super Saturdays are August 14, September 19, and October 2. Look for the announcements of "major race" selections on Brisnet.com.

$1 sale is Internet only, no fax orders.

Table of Contents

HR Workout Advice
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Understanding Track Biases
July 4th Wizard Sale
Calendar
At Your Service