| May 2000 | VOL. 13, NO. 5 |
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Make the Derby a Memorable Day! |
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More Angles Than A Geometry Book - WINNER'S CHOICE! |
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PROFESSIONAL PROFILES - ONE IN A SERIES OF THREEThe Kentucky Handicapper By James Scully (reprinted from the FREE Handicapper's Edge daily newsletter) Everybody remembers their first trip to the track. Steve Moody, AKA The Kentucky Handicapper, always watched the Kentucky Derby (G1) while growing up in Louisville, but he never attended the races until going to Churchill Downs as an 18-year-old in 1976. He cashed his first bet, left the track a winner and developed a lifelong interest in the game. Mathematics was always a favorite subject for Steve, and horse racing immediately appealed to him. Being able to analyze numbers goes hand-in-hand with handicapping. "I think I gravitated toward the game," Steve said. Steve began doing the Kentucky Handicapper's Sheet for BRIS in 1991, before BRIS Pace Ratings were provided, and a horse's current form and BRIS Speed Ratings were the major focus of his handicapping. Nowadays, he considers himself to be a more astute bettor because he is more of a pace handicapper than he was in 1991. "Pace analysis is such an important aspect of the game, especially when you're dealing with a prevailing bias," Steve explained. "You've got to be able to figure out who can get to the front, if they're going to get the lead by themselves or whether they're going to face pressure. "That's where the BRIS Pace Ratings figure in so prominently. BRIS Pace Ratings give players a huge edge that you didn't have before. They're indispensable, and I couldn't imagine handicapping without them." Pedigree analysis is another strength for Steve. His knowledge of bloodlines, whether a horse will be a sprinter or a router and if he's bred to be precocious, is an advantage. And Steve said he's always done well with maiden heats. "A lot of people shy away from maiden races, especially bottom-level claiming events," he said. "But I've always enjoyed playing all types of maiden tests -- even two-year-old races where everybody is a first-time starter. You can figure out who's bred to win early from the pedigrees, and when you combine that with trainer stats and workouts, maidens can be great opportunities." Steve tapes the races every day and watches the replays. He told me he makes notes on horses -- whether they had bad or golden trips, for example. And Steve compiles a horses-to-watch list for horses who figure to improve the next time out. The Kentucky Handicapper's Sheet features a comment on each horse in every race. Steve said that as he's taking a long look at each horse for the comments, analyzing how the contender will run, he begins to visualize the manner in which the race will develop. When he's through writing the comments, Steve goes back and looks at each horse again. He explained that he tries to figure out who will make the lead and whether the speed will be alone or facing pressure. He mentally pictures which horses will be pressing, and whether the race sets up for a closer. Steve also takes into account value. "If you have two horses who are difficult to separate, and one horse is 7-5 and the other is 5-1, you have to take the horse who's 5-1," he said. The BRIS Pacegraph is an invaluable report for Steve. It puts a horse's pace and speed ratings in a graphical format, making it easy to see whether a horse's form is improving, declining or consistent. I asked Steve for an example of a negative sign regarding a horse's form that the public generally tends to overlook. He was happy to oblige with a favorite scenario. "Whenever a horse puts a string of wins together entering today's race, but his most recent speed rating is two or three points lower than his previous effort's, that's a negative," he said. "There are exceptions, like a horse going from a route to a sprint or switching surfaces in his last start. However, when they've strung wins together in similar situations, and their speed ratings decreased last out, those horses come back and everybody bets on them more often than not because they've won two or more in a row. I avoid these horses in most instances." Steve said he'll always take a horse with something going for it when stepping up in class over a horse dropping in class, noting that he's always leery of droppers. Track announcer and handicapper Mike Battaglia is a good friend of Steve's, and the two talk about horses on the Kentucky scene regularly. Steve covers Turfway Park, Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs as the Kentucky Handicapper, and he said he's encouraged with the current state of Kentucky racing. Steve told me the new owners of Turfway are trying to develop more promotions and contests, trying to spark more interest in the area. I asked Steve about the recent Turfway meet. "In the first three weeks of December, the track played fairly honest for early speed and closers, but the main thing was that the rail was bad more days than not," he explained. "Horses that were stuck down on the rail were at a definite disadvantage sometimes, and you were able to find horses who were stuck down on the rail on bad days who really improved with a favorable draw the next time out. "Toward the end of December, speed began to hold better. For most of January, it was a case where whatever horse got to the front won. That bias has also been prevalent in February. The rail still isn't the best place to be, but it's better than it had been in December." This was one of Steve's better meets at Turfway Park. He picked 34% winners on top for a positive ROI of 2.05. Steve is clearly a leading authority on Kentucky racing. Check out the KY Handicapper's Sheet this spring for Churchill Downs.
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Win BIG on Maiden & Turf Races!Dear Horseplayer, Do you find it frustrating to constantly pass or lose on maiden and turf races, when other players are nailing these races thanks to their pedigree knowledge? Well, how would you like to become a pedigree expert overnight? It can happen when you own Maiden Stats 2000. With statistics on 31,000 two-year-olds of 2000, MAIDEN STATS is the ultimate guide for analyzing runners' pedigrees, and it's that knowledge which lead to BLOCKBUSTER PRICES. Everything one needs to know about a horse's breeding is in this jam-packed guide, including sire and dam statistics, dosage index, sales history, and top sibling information. If there is mud, turf or distance capability on either side of the family, MAIDEN STATS 2000 will tell you. You also will know right away if a debut runner is bred to win first time out. MAIDEN STATS goes beyond just two-year-old maiden events. If a runner attempts a route for the first time, the stats are there. If a runner attempts the grass, the reader will know if the horse is bred to love it. MAIDEN STATS 2000 is useful for as many years as there are horses (in the book) who attempt new circumstances, e.g. first time turf. MAIDEN STATS is a true bargain at only $99.95 plus $6.00 shipping and handling (Kentucky residents add 6 percent sales tax). "Handicapper's with a copy ... will have a serious information edge." That's what Dave Litfin of the Daily Racing Form had to say about this popular product. Order today by calling BRIS at 1-800-354-9206 ext. 254, or if you prefer, you can order through the online bookstore at www.brisnet.com . |
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May 2000 Racing Calendar
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