November 2000 | VOL. 13, NO. 11 |
Table of Contents
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The Breeders' Cup XVII Menu |
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Table of Contents
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The Biases of Churchill DownsBy Richard Nilsen Thanks to our comprehensive database at BRIS, we've uncovered a few stats regarding the track bias at Churchill Downs. Looking at data back to the Fall meet in 1997, I analyzed some of the different distances involved in the Breeders' Cup based on the appropriate age group. Here are the findings: SIX FURLONGS (354 races): No surprise here - the more speed you have, the better your chances at winning. The success rate gradually diminishes from Early types (E) down to Sustained closers (S). The average beaten lengths of the winner is 2.4 lengths at the 1st call and 1.9 lengths at the 2nd call. In fact, 70% of the winners are among the first three at the half mile. The rail (one hole) has been good, winning at a 14% clip. ONE MILE, TURF (84 races): Early/Pressers (E/P) and Pressers (P) have the best chance at success. Sustained types often don't get up in time, and frontrunners usually don't hang on. The typical winner is found 3.5 lengths behind at the 1st call and 2.1 lengths behind at the 2nd call. Inside posts, especially the two and three hole, have the preferred draw. 8 1/2 FURLONGS (54 Juvenile races): Only 13% of the two-year-old races run at 1 1/16 miles have been taken wire to wire. Early/Pressers (E/P) and Pressers (P) have the best chance at success. Sustained types win far fewer races than expected. The average beaten lengths of the winner is 4.1 lengths at the 1st call and 2.3 lengths at the 2nd call. Post position has not been much of a factor. That is very surprising given the short run to the first turn, and the fact that it is the first two-turn race for many youngsters. NINE FURLONGS (24 races): Finally, a distance where closers excel. Although Early types hold their own, the slight edge goes to Sustained closers. Interestingly, post position tends to matter here. The outside posts (8 and beyond) win on average only 2% of their starts. Compare that to the middle posts (4 through 7) which win on average 22% of the starts. There must be something to the bank of the racetrack and the positioning of the starting gate that seems to give a built-in advantage to certain posts. TEN FURLONGS (11 races): Early/Pressers (E/P) and Pressers (P) have dominated here based on a small sample, which includes three runnings of the KY Derby. The typical winner is found several lengths off the lead, averaging 5.3 lengths behind at the 1st call and 4.2 lengths behind at the 2nd call. You want a horse that figures to be in mid-pack but has some tactical speed. More than half the winners were on the lead by the time they hit the top of the stretch. The inside posts hold a slight advantage.
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New PP EnhancementsNew Improvements are coming to Brisnet.com Premium Plus, Quick Play and Ultimate Past Performances:
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Stable Alert
Nothing Compares to Stable Alert! Have you tried the new Stable Alert e-mail notification service? There has never such a convenient service for handicappers or horsemen. Only Stable Alert offers:
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The following events are qualifiers for the $200,000 National Handicapping Championship
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita | 626-574-7223 | Nov. 4-5 | |
Fonner Park | 308-382-4515 | Nov. 4 | |
Suffolk Downs | 617-567-3900 | Nov. 11 | |
Brisnet Online Challenge II | 800-354-9206 | Nov. 11 - Dec. 2 | |
Portland Meadows | 503-285-9144 | Nov. 17-19 | |
Laurel | 301-725-0400 | Nov. 18 | |
Suffolk Downs | 617-567-3900 | Nov. 18 | |
Thistledown | 216-662-8600 | Oct. 28 & Nov. 18 | |
Ruidoso Downs | 505-378-4431 | Nov. 18-19 | |
Hollywood Park | 310-330-7154 | Nov. 25 | |
Hawthorne | 708-780-3700 | Dec. 2 | |
Fair Grounds | 504-944-5515 | Dec. 2-3 | |
Hawthorne | 708-780-3700 | Dec. 9 | |
Turf Paradise | 602-942-1101 | Dec. 9-10 | |
Del Mar Surfside | 858-755-1167 | Dec. 17 | |
Turfway Park | 859-371-0200 | Dec. 17 |
Unless you are following every track across the United States and Canada, you may need a little assistance in deciphering the nuances of racing from Aqueduct to Santa Anita and all points in between. The Wizard has spent decades studying tracks and races across the country. His comprehensive coverage and insightful analysis is legendary in the racing industry.
You will want to check out the Wizard's Online Challenge Analysis, which offers a complete breakdown of each horse for every race, pace analysis, weather conditions for tracks, track speed biases, recommended longshots (for that elusive tiebreaker rule) and top selections. For only $10 per report, you can tap into the Wizard's expertise each week of the contest.
In past contests, the Wizard provided help to many participants with his Value Plays. Save time and let a professional help you during the $25,000 Online Challenge II. Visit http://www.brisnet.com each Friday afternoon to access the Wizard Report!
by Harry Furlong
When was the last time you took an honest appraisal of your handicapping? I was forced recently to recognize some of my own limitations after a sub-par performance in a recent handicapping tournament. While I have always considered myself a somewhat skilled handicapper (don't we all?), I am not particularly quick. To compensate for my lack of speed, I have always handicapped races well in advance. This approach had served me well until this tournament. The contest called for contestants to handicap 30 races from 5 racetracks without advance knowledge of the races. With so many races to handicap, I was unprepared when the tournament started. Not surprisingly, I enjoyed some early success in the contest. However as the day progressed, I faltered and finished out of contention. It would have been very easy at the end of the day to blame my failure on the format of the contest, saying it is unrealistic to handicap that many races at one sitting. The reality was I needed to make some fundamental changes in my handicapping. I decided to augment my traditional handicapping with MultiCaps handicapping software.
What I like about MultiCaps is that it allows me to manipulate up to 25 handicapping factors based on my personal preferences. It draws on my experiences at the track to handicap the races. Handicappers can key in on several factors such Pace, Ability, Projected Time, Feet Per Second Calculations, Prime Power, Race Ratings, total Pace Ratings and Class Ratings to name a few. After you decide which factors are most important, MultiCaps ranks the horses accordingly. The MultiCaps reports are easy to read and include a projected odds line to help you pinpoint potential longshots. Since I determine all the factors, I still feel in control but now can handicap entire race cards instantly.
Now I look forward to challenging race cards, especially the upcoming Breeders' Cup! Instead of hemming and hawing over each tough Cup race, I will be able to quickly zero in on the contenders with MultiCaps.
To download FREE MultiCaps software, visit www.brisnet.com and click FREE software at the top page.
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