| October 2004 | VOL. 17, NO. 10 |
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Breeders' Cup XXI enters the Lone Star StateFor the first time ever, Lone Star Park is the setting for Breeders� Cup World Thoroughbred Championships XXI on October 30, and unlike years past, handicappers have little to go on. The Grand Prairie facility is unfamiliar territory for handicappers used to tackling the Breeders' Cup with a little history on their side. The dirt and turf courses at Lone Star Park figure to have an important impact on the outcome of the races, and in search of an edge we will take a look at how this track typically plays for similar distance/age levels as the eight Breeders� Cup events. Statistics date back to the spring of 2002. The Juvenile Races
Tactical speed was a big plus as the average beaten lengths at the first two calls were 2.7 and 1.4 lengths, respectively. Few one-run closers were victorious, winning far fewer races than expected statistically. Look for runners who have good tactical speed while preferably breaking from an inside post. Distaff and Classic
The Mile
Speed can win here as 18-percent of the winners were able to lead the field gate to wire. Pressers (P) and Sustained types (S) accounted for 58-percent of the winners, so there is a slight edge to the runners from off the pace. The typical winner was 3.7 lengths from the lead at the first call and 2.3 lengths behind at the second call. Favor runners breaking from an inside or middle post who are able to keep the leaders within their sights. Separate the contenders by those that are capable of sustaining their late run versus top graded stakes company. Good ratings to utilize here are the BRIS Class Ratings and Late Pace figures. The Sprint
Winners were also evenly spread out among the post positions. The rail (one hole) did account for 13-percent winners, slightly better than any other post. Dissect the early BRIS Pace Ratings to determine if a quality speed horse to get "clear" in this field. If there is an abundance of early speed types with comparable pace ratings, look for the winner to come from off the pace. The Turf Marathons The Filly & Mare Turf is run at 1 3/8 miles as the fifth leg of the Breeders� Cup. The $2 million Turf is 1 � miles. Unfortunately there is an insufficient sample of turf marathons at Lone Star, giving us little to go on. It would be wise to put a premium on BRIS Class Ratings when handicapping these fields. The BRIS Class Ratings, which include Foreign Class Ratings on the imports, have done very well at identifying the winners in past years. Shippers
On the dirt the result was similar as shippers from Southern California were victorious 20% of the time with a �0.84 ROI for every $2 wagered. Kentucky shippers, interestingly, fared significantly better. Invaders from the Bluegrass State won 21-percent from 83 starters for a strong flat bet profit. Rarely did a shipper come down from the Big Apple. New York invaders won with one of 11 starters on the dirt with only two hitting the board. Given the small sample size, one can take that statistic with a grain of salt. Stay Informed
Stay informed of the latest Breeders� Cup happenings and you may just enter this unfamiliar territory a little better prepared than most other handicappers. Good luck! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Set Sail for Vegas
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Walker, Wagner & Wolfson | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Favorite | Long Odds | Pass or |
| In-the-Money | In-the-Money | Play |
| yes | no | pass |
| yes | yes | play |
| no | no | play |
| no | yes | crush |
When we refer to a "long odds" horse, we are referring to horses that are going off at 10 to 1 or higher, the higher the better, of course. The Trifecta is not playable if the favorite figures to finish in-the-money and no long-odds horse figures to finish in-the-money. Otherwise the Trifecta is generally playable including the probability of high payoffs when the favorite figures to finish off-the-board.�
To repeat: We will play the Superfecta ONLY if the Trifecta is playable AND the favorite is a false favorite.
Reducing the Number of Combinations�
There are good ways to reduce the number of combinations you play in your Superfecta ticket. This will reduce the cost of the ticket. You can pocket the dollars you save or you may want to reinvest them to add additional horses on the bottom of the ticket (moving combinations from top to bottom). Let�s look at techniques for reducing combinations. We will relate these back to the common Superfecta ticket presented earlier. Here is that $81 ticket for a $1 Superfecta.�
There are two key methods of reducing the number of combinations or moving combinations from top to bottom. They are: 1) Trifecta Plus and; 2) Key Horse With Required Finish.�
Trifecta Plus
In our July 1997 ALL-Ways Newsletter, in the second part of our series on playing the Trifecta, we introduced the concept of developing your Trifecta ticket by first developing an Exacta ticket. We showed how to take an Exacta ticket of AB/ABC and turn it into a Trifecta ticket of AB/ABC/ABCDE. You might want to go back and look at the newsletter. It has some very good ideas for selecting these horses. Now, what we are saying regarding the Superfecta, is to take this Trifecta ticket and turn it into a Superfecta ticket. It might look like this.
�
This reduces the wager from $81 to only $36 and we have added Horse F into the wager, now covering a total of six horses in the race. You have a choice at this point. You can pocket the savings in the cost of the wager or you can add additional combinations to the bottom of the ticket. For example, the ticket below adds horses �G�, �H� and �I� to the fourth slot. �
This ticket costs $72 but now covers nine horses in the race.�
Again, we suggest you read the July 1997 Newsletter. It will be very helpful constructing a Trifecta Plus ticket. You can view/print the newsletter from the All-Ways data files page at Brisnet.com which has a link to the newsletter archive.�
Key Horse with Required Finish
Very simply, this requires that we select one of the top horses as our Key Horse. This is a horse that we feel confident will finish in the Top 3. What we are really hoping for in the Superfecta is for the crowd favorite to finish off-the-board. So, the crowd favorite must never be our Key Horse. Here is what the ticket above would look like if we select horse �A� as our Key Horse. Actually, it is three tickets, one for each of the possible finishing positions of the Key Horse. �
| Ticket | $1 Cost� |
| A / BC / BCDE / BCDEFGHI | $36 |
| B / A / CDE / CDEFGHI | $18 |
| B / C / A / DEFGHI | $ 6 |
By using a key horse, we reduce the total cost to just $60. We can either "pocket" this savings or we can invest it to put more horses in the 3rd and/or 4th spot. For example, we could add 2 more horses to the 4th slot as shown below.�
| A / BC / BCDE / BCDEFGHIJK | $48 |
| B / A / CDE / CDEFGHIJK | $24 |
| B / C / A / DEFGHIJK | $ 8� |
This gets us back to an $80 ticket, but the ticket covers eleven horses in the field. Stop and think now how far we have come. We started with an $81 ticket that covered six horses. We now have an $80 ticket that covers eleven horses. We did this by moving combinations from the top half of the ticket (which is easier to handicap) to the bottom half of the ticket (which is difficult to handicap) and by requiring that we select one horse in the race (not the favorite) to finish either first, second or third.�
We are not suggesting that all your Superfecta tickets include eleven horses. Indeed, the $6239 Superfecta in the fifth at TPX had only eight horses in the race. What we are suggesting is that you construct your wager such that you have fewer combinations in the Win and Place slots in favor of more combinations in the 3rd and 4th slots.
Handicapping for 3rd and 4th Place�
It is very difficult to handicap for the third place finisher and even more difficult for the fourth place finisher. That is why we have spent so much time figuring out how to get more horses into our wager at the bottom of the ticket. There are, however, some very good handicapping factors in ALL-Ways software that have proven to be effective for selecting these horses.
�
Final Fraction Pace Figures�
Combined Pace Rating�
The Combined Pace Rating in ALL-Ways software is the sum of a horse�s Early Pace Rating and its Final Fraction Rating. Include all horses in the top part of the field for the BRIS or Hall Combined Pace Rating. In this case, we usually restrict this to the Best 2 of 3 figures.
Dangerous Non-Contenders�
After ALL-Ways software automatically selects contenders in a race, it looks at each remaining horse to see if it can spot anything that may make it �dangerous� in today�s race. If it finds something, it designates the horse as a Dangerous Non-Contender. We suggest you include such horses in the bottom part of your Superfecta ticket. �
The ALL-Ways Paceline Report is great for handicapping Superfecta plays. In addition to fundamental class, speed and comprehensive figures, it includes all the pace figures and track bias statistics. Contenders and Dangerous Non Contenders are highlighted as well. �
A Word about Class and Layoffs�
Low class horses and long layoff horses do indeed often finish 3rd or 4th. So, we do not eliminate such horses. If we just have too many horses for our ticket and feel we must eliminate one or two of these kinds of horses, be sure NOT to eliminate horses with good Back Speed or good Back Class. �
Summary�
A few years back, a new ALL-Ways handicapper with a young family and modest means telephoned to thank us for a wonderful Christmas present. He had bet a straight $2 Superfecta ticket using ALL-Way software�s first four picks in exact order. He won the Superfecta with a $10,000 payoff. Like the television commercial says: �I love my job!� Obviously, Superfectas usually require that we bet a number of combinations. We hope this article helps you to decide which Superfectas to play and which to pass and how best to craft your tickets.�
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Wagering from the comfort of his own office, which he has converted into a personal simulcast facility, Michael Kipness has put serious money through the parimutuel pools for years. At the same time he runs one of racing�s most successful selection sheet operations. The handicapper who goes by the moniker "The Wizard" shared his insights into how he attacks the Breeders' Cup.
Q. One of your most popular sheets each year is your in-depth analysis of the Breeders' Cup with wagering strategies. What goes into your preparation before handicapping the big day of racing?
A. Watching the races all year is the greatest preparation I can do for the Breeders' Cup. When I do the major stakes packages for BRIS throughout the year, I'm able to keep a close eye on the stakes.
It's a little different than getting the PPs a few weeks out and just handicapping the races. Watching all these major races I have a good visual when I look back at the PPs of the horses entered for the Breeders' Cup. I can visually remember all the races, which makes the PPs, in many ways, three-dimensional.
If I have to refer to anything I have all the major stakes PPs in a three-ring binder. That way it's very easy to go back and look at a race for reference.
I try to see which horses are going to peak on that day. Many horses are "over the top" come Breeders' Cup day. It's really important to identify which runners have been properly prepared.
The other thing is that good trainers win these races. The trainers that have been there before, and won these races, are the ones that typically shine on the "big" day.
What is also important is the configuration of the track. Take an unbelievable filly like Sightseek who is unbeatable at Belmont Park. When she goes to Santa Anita she is just an ordinary horse. Lone Star is similar to Santa Anita with the tight turns, so that is a dilemma facing trainer Bobby Frankel.
I'm a visual handicapper not a numbers guy. That's what led me to pick Sunday Silence over Easy Goer in the Breeders' Cup. Because of the tighter turns and speed-conducive Gulfstream track, the edge had to go to Sunday Silence who was more of an athlete than Easy Goer. That led me to make Sunday Silence a best bet on the Breeders' Cup card. I knew that trainer Charlie Whittingham had worked Sunday Silence on the far turn of the track days before the race, so he was asking for speed for the colt at the stretch turn of the race. Sunday Silence would have the jump on Easy Goer at a critical stage in the race. I witnessed that work and it clinched the selection for me.
That's where a workout or race and the style of the horse can be crucial. I'm looking for those kinds of things. Speed figures are not meaningless to me but I approach the races from a different perspective. My "feel" for the races gives me an edge.
It's not like tackling a meet where you can get into a rhythm and feel for the races. I got into a rhythm for the recent Saratoga meet, but with the Breeders' Cup you are dealt 8 races on one given day. With the Breeders' Cup you have to create your "rhythm."
Q. How do you analyze the European imports?
A. With the European invaders, I will watch as many of their races as possible. I don't read a lot about those races because I want to see the races for myself. I will read some material to see what the trainers' intent are, but I don't want to be influenced by what some European handicapper writes. Again, watching the races is key.
Q. What wagering strategies do you use on Cup day, and what advice would you give to bettors?
A. I prefer Pick-3s because I love them when the pools are big. This is the same reason I love the Pick-3s and Trifectas at Saratoga. The pools are big and enhanced by some uninformed money. It's critical to beat a favorite in one of those legs. If you can beat two favorites, you're in a great shape. Of course, you don't want to hook up three favorites.
It's not bad to do an "all" if you have a strong opinion on one leg of the Pick-3. Some of these races are so competitive, so it can be best to identify your key wagering opportunities, where you do an opinion. If you have five to six horses in a race, it can best to do an "all." Otherwise, it can come back to bite you! An example was one of the recent NTRA Pick-4s. I didn't have the winner in the first leg but I used "all" in my wagering strategies. A 10-1 shot won the first leg and helped me land a profitable wager.
I would never suggest making a win bet on any horse that is going to be selected by many people. I'm looking to make bets where the public is going to make a mistake. You really don't want to take a win bet on an obvious horse. It's best to take a strong opinion on an obvious horse and play with him in the exotics.
When I say that Pick-3s are "the play" on Breeders' Cup day, you still live by the sword and die by the sword. If you don't have the winners, it doesn't matter what wager you make.
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"I use a lot of BRIS for my pedigree research and for selecting races. For purchasing runners I can get the numbers quicker than other guys. I will get the BRIS numbers the day after the race is run, and since they come out quicker than the other services, it gives me an edge over the competition. It gives me a two day jump.
I trust Brisnet because they are done by computer... it lets me know if I have them in the right spot." -- trainer Bob Baffert, HorsePlayer Magazine July/Aug. 2004
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