Powerful All Weather Surface Handicapping Tools Opportunities Abound! Handicapping races run on the new all weather surface (“synthetic”) tracks has become more complex and, at times, even confusing. Some handicappers complain about the difficulty and stop playing those tracks. Other handicappers continue to play the tracks, but without adjusting their handicapping methods, thus finding it difficult to achieve profitable play. But, some handicappers recognize this added complexity “opens the door” to a rare opportunity for potential financial gain. These players are typically investigative and analytical and they recognize that, if they can “crack the code” of all weather surface racing, they will have a significant “edge” over other horseplayers who play these races using past “real dirt” considerations. The question then is, how to go about “cracking the code” of handicapping all weather surface races? And, the answer is ALL-Ways handicapping software, which is available free of charge from BRIS. Read on to learn more about the unique capabilities in ALL-Ways that have proven to be of significant help for handicapping all weather surface races. This includes: 1) extensive analysis capabilities; 2) unique handicapping information and; 3) special handicapping tools. About All Weather Surface Racing: Currently, eight major tracks in North America have changed from “real dirt” to an all weather surface. They are Arlington Park, Del Mar, Golden Gate Fields, Hollywood Park, Keeneland, Santa Anita, Turfway Park and Woodbine. There are currently three different synthetic track brand names, specifically Polytrack, Cushion Track and Tapeta. Conventional wisdom says that all weather surfaces tracks exhibit biases that are much kinder to horses lacking early speed, that diminish post position bias and diminish the influence of changing weather conditions. Much of this conventional wisdom is well founded, but way too much of a generalization to follow for profitable play. The three different types of synthetic surfaces have their own unique influences. Even the Polytrack surfaces at Keenelend and at Del Mar have their own unique composition. And, both pace bias and post position bias are generally quite different depending on the specific track and/or the specific distance of the race. All weather surface racing makes it even more important today to handicap on a race type specific and race track specific basis, including being very specific when it comes to race distances. About ALL-Ways Software Analysis Capabilities: As you use ALL-Ways, you will, “behind the scenes”, automatically build a race database for each track you play. There are two specific analysis functions in ALL-Ways that use this database and that have been particularly helpful for analyzing all weather surface races. They are the ALL-Ways Impact Value Analysis and the ALL-Ways Gap Analysis. To run these automatic analyses, you simply instruct ALL-Ways as to the specific track and the specific kind(s) of races to analyze and then click the “GO” button. ALL-Ways Impact Value Analysis:  The Impact Value Analysis determines the power (Impact Value) and flat bet win profitability of 87 key handicapping factors covering each horse’s suitability to the distance and surface, current form, class level and ability to handle the probable pace and speed demands of the race. Jockey, trainer and pedigree factors are also included. Here are some of the Impact Value Analysis results at Keeneland comparing the effect of moving from “real dirt” races to all weather surface races. Keeneland Sprints "Real" Dirt All Weather Surface   IV   $2 Win IV $2 Win Bris Early Pace 1.89 $2.32 1.09 $1.56 Hall Final Fraction 1.06 $1.45 1.74 $2.53 This shows that horse’s ranked first for BRIS Early Pace won 1.89 times their fair share of “real” dirt sprint races at Keeneland and yielded a $2 flat bet payoff of $2.32, which is a 32 cents profit and a return on investment of 16%. However, when we look at all weather surface races, the Impact Value drops dramatically to only 1.09 and the profits disappear with a 44 cent loss for every $2 wagered. Now look at the Hall Final Fraction rating. It goes from only a 1.06 Impact Value and 55 cent loss for “real” dirt races to where the top rated Hall Final Fraction horses have a 1.74 Impact Value and a 53 cent profit in all weather surface races. We see similar figures for dirt sprints at Hollywood Park. Again, however, it would be way too much of a generalization to say that every all weather surface track favors closers, because there are significant differences based on the specific synthetic surface used and the specific distance of the race. When we look at Turfway Park, this shift from early pace to late pace does not take hold until the longer sprint distances run on the all weather surface. But then, closers have a huge advantage for all weather surface routes, much more so than for “real” dirt routes. At Arlington Park, the pace differences going from real dirt to all weather surface racing are not nearly as dramatic. And, Arlington Park all weather surface races tend to favor the inside posts whereas most other all weather surface tracks show a significant bias towards the middle and outside posts. So, all tracks with races run on an all weather surface are not the same!. Again, a single ALL-Ways Impact Value Analysis Report covers 87 key handicapping factors and does so on a track specific and race type specific basis, including specific distances. ALL-Ways Gap Analysis:  The Gap Analysis shows the win percentage, the in-the-money percentage and the win return-on-investment percentage for each handicapping factor based on the size (“Gap”) of the horse’s advantage for the factor. Here is an example of the win ROI for the Brohamer Total Ranking in ALL-Ways software, an overall ranking of each horse’s pace profile, for past all weather surface sprints at Keeneland.   Win Return on Investment Keeneland AWS Sprints Gap Gap  Gap Gap   +1 +2 +3 +4 Brohamer Total Ranking 38% 40% 67% 74% This shows that horses with a one point advantage for the Brohamer Total Ranking yield a flat win bet profit of 38%. This profitability typically increases as the horse’s Gap advantage increases.  About ALL-Ways Unique All Weather Surface Handicapping Information: ALL-Ways software includes the all weather surface handicapping information you would expect including extensive track bias statistics, each horse’s all weather surface performance statistics, both lifetime performances and more specifically at today’s all weather surface track. And, ALL-Ways includes each horse’s AWS BRIS Speed 2/3, Best AWS BRIS Speed and Best AWS BRIS Speed at Today’s Track. But, there is a whole lot more all weather surface handicapping help in ALL-Ways.  Hall Pace and Speed Figures:  In addition to BRIS pace and speed figures, ALL-Ways includes the unique Hall pace and speed figures as well. When you use ALL-Ways, “behind the scenes”, ALL-Ways automatically updates and maintains pace and speed par times for every track in North America. ALL-Ways takes a horse’s actual times at a track and adjust for the Daily Track Variant and, if appropriate, makes a track-to-track adjustment as well. Virtually all good pace and speed figures do the same, including the BRIS figures. But, the Hall figures go a step further. They make use of the concept of “conservation of energy”, and adjust each of the horse’s past performance races to estimate how the horse’s performances would have been at today’s specific distance on today’s specific surface at today’s specific track. In other words, the Hall numbers reflect an estimate of how the horse’s past performances would have been in today’s specific race. This “normalization” approach has proven to be particularly strong for the new all weather surface tracks. Here are the win return-on-investment figures generated by the Gap Analysis for the Hall Pace Line Speed factor in sprint races run on the all weather surface at Woodbine.   Win Return on Investment Woodbine Sprints Gap Gap  Gap Gap   +1 +2 +3 +4 Hall Pace Line Speed 24% 47% 49% 54% ALL-Ways Automatic Pace Line Selection: ALL-Ways automatically selects pace line races for evaluating horses pace and speed figures  with special considerations given to past races run at today’s all weather surface track or, in the absence of such a race, for all weather surface races run at another track.   BRIS and Hall Compound Pace and Speed Figures:  These ratings are: Combined Rating (Early Pace plus Final Fraction), Total Rating (Early Pace plus Speed) and Late Rating (Final Fraction plus Speed). The Gap analyses for these Compound Ratings, at virtually every all weather surface track in North America, frequently point to solid profitable return-on-investment plays. Here are the Gap Analysis return-on-investment figures for the Hall Pace Line Combined Rating in all weather surface dirt routes at Golden Gate Fields.   Win Return on Investment Golden Gate AWS Routes Gap Gap  Gap Gap   +1 +2 +3 +4 Hall Pace Line Combined 42% 43% 54% 58% Best Early and Best Late Handicapping:  ALL-Ways newsletters introduced the concept of Best Early and Best Late handicapping. The BRIS and Hall Total ratings are a good way to identify the “best early” horses and the BRIS and Hall Late ratings are a good way to identify the best late horses. These figures are particularly valuable for use in wagers where two or more horses are used such as 2-horse win wagers and exotics (Exactas, Pick 3’s, etc.).  Note that all ALL-Ways Newsletters are available free on-line at both www.brisnet.com and www.frandsen.com. These newsletters contain very helpful handicapping and wagering ideas and are useful for ALL-Ways users and non-ALL-Ways users alike. About ALL-Ways Special Handicapping Tools: Two of the most popular handicapping tools in ALL-Ways continue to yield solid results for handicapping all weather surface races. First, ALL-Ways automatically creates special handicapping profiles that the software uses to make its selections and to establish the ALL-Ways odds-line. One set of these profiles that have proven to be particularly strong for all weather surface races are called Race Card Multiple Regression (RCMR) profiles. All you do is click a single button and ALL-Ways automatically looks at each individual race on the card, finds all similar races in the race database for the track and uses advanced multiple regression techniques to find the set of handicapping factors that work best in combination with each other for the specific race. ALL-Ways then automatically creates a handicapping profile made up of these factors and weights the factors by there impact values. This is all automatic! You end up with an individual handicapping profile for each individual race on the card. The second special handicapping tool is the ability to create your own personal handicapping angles called Custom Search Definitions. You can create and test your own angles from scratch and/or you can use the ALL-Ways Angle Assistant feature to automatically create them.  Strong Handicapping Reports for All Weather Surface Handicapping:  The ALL-Ways Pace Line Report includes BRIS and Hall pace line pace and speed figures as well as many other comprehensive factors and can be used as a standalone handicapping report. The ALL-Ways Top 10/Ranking Report shows every horse’s ranking for nineteen different handicapping factors, including BRIS Class, Speed and Pace figures and Hall pace and speed figures. The BRIS and Hall Compound Pace and Speed Ratings discussed earlier are also included. Plus, you can customize this report to include the handicapping factors of your choice. The ALL-Ways Search Handicapping Report:  This special handicapping report is particularly powerful for playing all weather surface races. It includes extensive track bias information, it identifies horses with strong Gap advantage(s), it identifies good Key-Horse candidates, it uses the Compound Ratings, discussed above, to identify the best early running and the best late running horses (particularly powerful for multi-horse wagers) and it shows the selections made by ALL-Ways Handicapping Profiles. It also identifies horses qualifying for your own personal handicapping angles (Custom Search Definitions). Take Action: ALL-Ways software is free. You can call BRIS at 1 800 354 9206 and have the software and User Manual, pre-printed in a 3-ring binder, mailed to you for a nominal S&H charge. You can also download ALL-Ways software and the ALL-Ways User Manual from the BRIS Web site. You can also learn more about ALL-Ways software by visiting the ALL-Ways Free Software Page on the BRIS Web site. This includes more information about how ALL-Ways works and about how best to get started with ALL-Ways to get on your way towards “cracking the code” of all weather surface handicapping. You just might become an expert at it! [ Sign-up ] [ Products & Prices ] [ Bookstore ] [ Track Info ] [ Library ] [ Tech Support ] [ F.A.Q. ] [ Member Services ] [ Contact Us ]