USING PEDIGREE STATISTICS FOR HANDICAPPINGAN EXAMPLE OF PEDIGREE STATISTICS ON A RUNNER: RECKLESS ROSE, 21FEB85 114, $ 10,500, JKY: FP FUENTES BY THE IRISH LORD (333fls)(75%wnr)(44%2ywnr)(16%1st)(17%mud)(awd6.3)(spi1.79) - GO SOUTH (p)(4str)(3wnrs)(1sw)(25%2ywnrs)(dpi3.88)
STANDARD STARTS INDEX (SSI) For example, the average earnings per start at two for all colts foaled in 1960 was $400; and the average earnings per start at two for all fillies foaled in 1960 was $283. Thus, a colt foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $400 has an SSI of 1.00. And a filly foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $283 also has an SSI of 1.00. Both the colt and filly have the same SSI due to the higher lifetime earning expectancy of colts. A runner with an index of 1.00 is considered to be of the same caliber as all other runners with indexes of 1.00 regardless of the year foaled or sex. Thus, a colt foaled in 1930 which had an average per start of $94 and an SSI of 1.00 for his crop and sex would be considered of the same caliber as a colt foaled in 1960 with an average earnings per start of $400 and an SSI of 1.00.
DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (DPI)
SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX (SPI)
"RECKLESS ROSE" = THE RUNNER'S NAME
"21FEB85" = THE RUNNER'S FOALING DATE
By knowing the actual birthdates of two-year-olds,
handicappers have an edge at the betting windows. The
"early" foals (Jan-Mar) have a tremendous advantage over
"late" foals, due to their maturity advantage.
"114" = ASSIGNED WEIGHT FOR THE RACE ENTERED
"$10,500" = HIGHEST PUBLIC AUCTION PRICE
"JKY: FP FUENTES" = JOCKEY FOR THE RACE ENTERED
"THE IRISH LORD" = THE RUNNER'S SIRE'S NAME
(333fls) = THE NUMBER OF FOALS BY THE SIRE
Bloodstock Research recommends that handicappers demand at
least fifty (50) foals by a sire before weighting that
sire's pedigree statistics heavily. This will insure the
reliability of the information.
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
(75%wnr) = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE RACE BY
THE SIRE.
The higher the %wnr the better.
(44%2ywnr) = THE PERCENTAGE OF 2-YEAR-OLD STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST
ONE RACE
In two-year-old races, prefer runners with a high "%2ywnr".
(16%1st) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME STARTERS
Any first-time starter with a %1st greater than 15% should
be considered a threat to win at first asking. Is the
runner ready? Check the runner's workout tab and the
trainer's competence with first-time starters. In
addition, the handicapper should look for a leading jockey
or stable rider.
NOTE: AFTER A RUNNER HAS RACED, DO NOT USE THE %1ST IN YOUR HANDICAPPING.
(17%MUD) = THE WIN PERCENTAGE OF MUD STARTS BY THE SIRE
If a runner hasn't yet demonstrated a liking or disliking
for mud and today's track is muddy, use the "%mud" to
predict the runner's preference. Prefer runners with high
"%mud" percentages.
(AWD6.3) = THE AVERAGE WINNING DISTANCE (IN FURLONGS) OF THE SIRE'S
WINNERS
Among first-time starters entered in sprints, look for
runners with an AWD close to distance of the race you're
handicapping, but prefer AWDs shorter than the distance.
These first-time starters are the most likely to show the
early speed that dominates these races. If a first-time
starter's AWD is larger than desired (ie., greater than
6.5 in a 6 furlong sprint), the handicapper should become
strict on other measures of early speed - in particular,
demand a relatively high %1st and/or at least one short
work out at three or four furlongs indicating "strong
speed". Generally, workouts of about 12 seconds per
furlong is a good indication of speed. For runners
"stretching out" (sprint to route) for the first time,
prefer those runners whose sire shows an AWD of seven (7)
furlongs or more. These first time "stretch outs" are more
likely to show the stamina it takes to cover the extra
distance in these races.
(spi1.79) = The Sire's Production Index is a numerical representation
of a sire's class and consistency, based upon relative
earnings. The calculation of the SPI involves the ratio of
a sire's colts and fillies average earnings per start for a
year, respectively, and the average earnings per start for
all colts and fillies, respectively, for the same year.
The average SPI of all sires is 1.00. The SPI is useful
with first-time starters and first-time stretchouts.
While the SPI is not as powerful as some other pedigree
statistics (%1st and awd), it is quite helpful when used to
separate otherwise equal first-time starters and first-time
stretchouts.
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
( %tfwins) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S STARTERS ON THE TURF
%tfwins is best used to evaluate first-time turf starters.
%tfwins combined with %1sttf is a reliable indicator of a
runner's probable liking/disliking to the turf. Obviously,
the handicapper prefers the higher percentages.
( %1sttf) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME TURF STARTERS
Any first-time turf starter with a %1sttf greater than 15%
should be considered a threat - regardless of recent form
on the dirt.
Dam statistics, in general, should be weighted considerably less than sire statistics. The lighter weighting of dams is justified simply on the basis of numbers. Since a stallion may sire hundreds of foals, his statistics are far more reliable than that of a dam who produces just a few. Still, dam statistics can be helpful (ie., to separate otherwise equal first-time starters).
"GO SOUTH" = THE DAM'S NAME
(p) = THE DAM'S RACE PERFORMANCE. The best race performance of
GO SOUTH was "placed". Prefer in descending order:
sw - stakes winner
sp - stakes placed
w - winner
p - placed
up - unplaced
ur - unraced
(4str) = THE NUMBER OF FOALS WHICH STARTED AT LEAST ONE RACE
Demand at least 4 starters out of the Dam to assure
reliability of the information.
(3wnrs) = THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A RACE
Obviously, the more winners the better.
(1sw) = THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A STAKES RACE
Again, the more stakes winners the better.
(25%2ywnrs) = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS THAT WON A ONE RACE AS A
TWO-YEAR-OLD.
In two-year-old races, runners with a high "%2ywnrs" are
preferred.
(dpi3.88) = DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (SEE SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX FOR
EXPLANATION)
Like the SPI, the DPI is useful for separating young
runners with little or no racing record. The handicapper
prefers runners with the higher DPI.
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
****************************************************************************** * * * DANCING LINDSAY, 86 117, TR: GOSDEN JOHN H M, JKY: CA BLACK * * * * BY LILOY (FR) (193fls)(51%wnr)(14%2ywnr)(2%1st)(13%mud)(awd7.7)(spi2.15) * * - BOLD BRAT (sw)(4str)(1wnrs)(1sw)(0%2ywnrs)(dpi2.01) * * 25Jy88HOL06 6f FT 03 5 1/4 Gosden J Md Sp Wt 111.5 111.9 57 26000 * * 10Jy88HOL04 6f FT 09 19 Gosden J Md Sp Wt 111.7 107.8 44 26000 * * * ******************************************************************************In two-year-old maiden races at a mile (or more), handicappers should concentrate their analysis of the race on those runners which figure to benefit at the distance. With most two-year-old-races carded at sprint distances, many two-year-olds bred for the longer distances must enter sprints until a race at a favorable distance is carded. The sixth race at Del Mar on September 7, 1988 was at one mile for two-year-old maidens. Handicapper's with Bloodstock Research's pedigree information could have easily spotted a tremendous overlay. In a race filled with runners stretching out for the first time in their young careers, Dancing Lindsay figured to benefit the most from the added distance - as evidenced by an AWD of 7.7. This lightly raced filly was exiting a good effort at six furlongs in only her second career start. Placed at a more comfortable distance, she figured to show more improvement. With the generous odds of 12.5 to 1, Dancing Lindsay was a license to steal. She won easily paying $27.00. ******************************************************************************* * * * DECOY, 86 118, JKY: A CORDERO JR * * * *BY CLEVER TRICK (241fls)(72%wnr)(50%2ywnr)(21%1st)(16%mud)(awd6.5)(spi2.28) * * - BRIDGE TABLE (ur)(3str)(3wnrs)(0sw)(33%2ywnrs)(dpi3.13) * * No Previous North American Starts * * * *******************************************************************************Two-year-old maiden races are dominated by runners with early speed. Runners expected to be up front early combined with moderate to high odds present handicappers with solid investment opportunities. The fourth race at Belmont on September 7, 1988 was a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for maiden two-year-olds. This race powerfully demonstrates the value of Bloodstock Research's pedigree information. Decoy, a first-time starter, was obviously well bred - as indicated by a SPI of 2.28 and a DPI of 3.13 . And more importantly his pedigree statistics indicated an ability to win at first asking - as indicated by a %1st of 21%! The AWD of 6.5 is acceptable - especially, considering the high %1st and a 3f workout in :36 flat from the gate (printed in the Daily Racing Form). At odds of nearly 8 to 1, Decoy was a solid investment and proved to be a profitable one. He went wire to wire, while never being threatened paying $17.80. The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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