Road to BC – 9/30

ROAD TO
THE BREEDERS’ CUP

SEPTEMBER 30

by James Scully

Most of the final prep races for the Breeders’ Cup World
Thoroughbred Championships will be held over the next two
weekends. Five Grade 1s and a total of 13 graded stakes will be
run Saturday. Oak Tree will host another three graded events on
Sunday and there are four Group 1 races, including the Prix de
l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), in France at Longchamp. Thirteen more
graded stakes are scheduled the following weekend.

This provides an opportunity to take a brief look and rank the
top 5 contenders for each Breeders’ Cup race.

CLASSIC

PLEASANTLY PERFECT (Pleasant Colony) will go after his second
consecutive Classic (G1) victory off five wins from his last six
starts. However, he’s taking a different course this time after
prepping for last year’s Classic win in the Goodwood Breeders’
Cup H. (G2) in early October.

The 69-day layoff will be easy to second-guess because no
Classic winner has come off more than a 50-day break and
Pleasantly Perfect’s last loss, to former claimer Choctaw Nation
(Louis Quatorze), came following a lengthy layoff this summer. He
might need a prep race to run his best at Lone Star.

Another factor is his recent BRIS Speed figures. The
six-year-old horse earned a 99 for the San Diego H. (G2) and 105
for the Pacific Classic (G1), numbers well below par for him.
Pleasantly Perfect recorded a 117 for last year’s Classic and
followed it with a 109 in January’s San Antonio H. (G2). He won
spectacularly in March’s Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1), but did the
six-year-old leave something on the table there?

The 1-2 finishers from the September 11 Woodward S. (G1),
GHOSTZAPPER (Awesome Again) and SAINT LIAM (Saint Ballado), are
both top Classic contenders. Ghostzapper, who is undefeated in
2004, can be placed anywhere and has developed into the best
handicap performer this year, earning Speed ratings of 114 and
117 in his two starts at a route. He’s by a Classic-winning sire
but has never been 10 furlongs.

Saint Liam, who ran well in Louisiana earlier this year before
finishing a close third in the Oaklawn H. (G2), returned off a
five-month freshening better than ever for trainer Richard Dutrow
Jr. in the Woodward, determinedly battling Ghostzapper through
the stretch before finishing a close second. Saint Liam owns the
Speed figures (114, 105, 106 and 111 from his last four starts)
to be a major player and the improving four-year-old figures to
offer good value on October 30.

ROSES IN MAY (Dynaformer) can lead or rate and earned Speed
figures of 111 and 110 from his recent starts. Undefeated from
five attempts this year, the speedy four-year-old delivered an
extremely gutsy performance to win the Whitney H. (G1) two starts
back and tuned up for the Breeders’ Cup with a nice score at
Turfway Park. The hot-riding John Velazquez picks up the mount
and could guide Roses in May all the way on the front end.

Three-year-olds have won seven of 20 Classics and this year’s
divisional contenders are headed by BIRDSTONE (Grindstone) and
THE CLIFF’S EDGE (Gulch). Birdstone will train up to the race
following an impressive 2 1/2-length score in the Travers S.
(G1), and Nick Zito brought the smallish colt into that race off
a similar layoff. What Birdstone lacks in size he makes up for in
heart, but he’s unplaced in his last two starts outside of New
York.

The Cliff’s Edge will prep for the Classic in Saturday’s $1
million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). A non-threatening second in
each of his last three attempts, the Zito trainee battled some
foot problems in late spring/early summer following a resounding
victory in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and may continue to hit his
best stride this fall. A strong performance Saturday sets him up
well for the Classic.

Three-time French Group 1 winner BAGO (Nashwan) is expected to
run in Sunday’s Arc before an attempt at the Classic and Euro
shippers for America’s richest race can be dangerous. Giant’s
Causeway and Sakhee both recorded narrow runner-up finishes when
making their dirt debut in the Classic, and the French shipper
Arcangues orchestrated the greatest upset in Breeders’ Cup
history in the 1993 running.

TURF

Three-year-olds should be a major presence in the 1 1/2-mile
Turf (G1). European sophomores NORTH LIGHT (Danehill), AZAMOUR
(Night Shift), GREY SWALLOW (Daylami [Ire]), RULE OF LAW
(Kingmambo), BAGO (Nashwan) and VALIXIR (Trempolino) have turned
in outstanding performances this season and will all be serious
contenders if they make the trip to Texas. And probably the best
turf horse in America is the three-year-old KITTEN’S JOY (El
Prado [Ire]).

Kitten’s Joy, who ran 10 furlongs 2/5 of a second faster than
older rivals in the Arlington Million (G1) while winning the
Secretariat S. (G1) on the same program under wraps, is 7-1-0
from eight turf starts and comes off monstrous performances in
his last two outings. The real question facing him is 1 1/2
miles.

We’ll learn more Saturday in the 12-furlong Joe Hirsch Turf
Classic Invitational (G1).

Top older horses still based overseas include SULAMANI (Ire)
(Hernando [Fr]), who is already a two-time Grade 1 winner in
North America, and NORSE DANCER (Halling), who has recorded
commendable runner-up finishes in the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1)
and Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) over the last couple of
months.

POWERSCOURT (GB) (Sadler’s Wells) is expected to return to the
United States for the Turf. The four-year-old offered a powerful
late run to capture the Arlington Million and missed by only
three parts of a length when third to Azamour in the Irish
Champion last out. WARRSAN (Caerleon) is a confirmed distance
lover with Group 1 wins this season in England and Germany.

MAGISTRETTI (Diesis [GB]), who made his U.S. bow in the
Arlington Million and was transferred afterward to trainer
Patrick Biancone, looked terrific when thrashing his opponents in
convincing fashion last time in the 1 3/8-mile Man o’ War S.
(G1). He could be rolling late at Lone Star under big-money rider
Edgar Prado.

DISTAFF

AZERI (Jade Hunter) is the leading contender for the Distaff
(G1) but may be cross-entered to the Classic. The thought of the
six-year-old mare getting crushed by males at 1 1/4 miles is
disturbing.

Azeri comes off a grueling runner-up effort in the Personal
Ensign H. (G1), and we’ll see how she bounces back in the October
10 Spinster (G1) at Keeneland. If she has two races left in her
tank, the classy chestnut will be tough to catch at Lone Star.

Grade 1 winners SIGHTSEEK (Distant View), ISLAND FASHION
(Petionville), STORM FLAG FLYING (Storm Cat), SUMMER WIND DANCER
(Siberian Summer), ASHADO (Saint Ballado), STELLAR JAYNE (Wild
Rush), ELLOLUV (Gilded Time) and SOCIETY SELECTION remain
promising candidates for this year’s Distaff (G1).

Stellar Jayne, a stablemate to Azeri, is an intriguing
prospect. Lukas saddled the three-year-old Spain to a 55-1 upset
over her more highly regarded stablemate Surfside in the 2000
Distaff and other sophomores in his care like Life’s Magic and
Lady’s Secret have really blossomed in the fall for the Hall of
Fame conditioner.

A half-sister to multiple Grade 1 heroine Starrer, Stellar
Jayne has recorded a 2-2-1 mark, with victories in the Mother
Goose (G1) and Gazelle (G1), from her last five starts and will
likely receive one more prep before the Distaff. She’s a
dangerous darkhorse.

SPRINT

Saturday features a showdown between leading Sprint (G1)
contenders SPEIGHTSTOWN (Gone West) and PICO CENTRAL (Brz) (Spend
a Buck) in the Vosburgh S. (G1). The former comes off victories
at the distance in the True North Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) and
Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G2), earning BRIS Speed figures of 111
and 113. Speightstown is four-for-four this year for trainer Todd
Pletcher.

Pico Central, who will have to be supplemented to the Sprint,
captured the Met Mile (G1) and Carter H. (G1), but the
five-year-old horse remains untested at the Sprint distance in
America. He was a 6 3/4-length stakes winner in Brazil at six
furlongs, but Pico Central still needs to prove it here. Many top
sprinters have come up empty in the Breeders’ Cup because they
were more effective at 6 1/2 or seven furlongs.

KELA (Numerous) has really come to hand for trainer Mike
Mitchell this season, throwing tremendous winning performances in
the six-furlong Bing Crosby Breeders’ Cup H. (G1) and
seven-furlong Pat O’Brien Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) in his last two
attempts. He earned Speed ratings of 112 and 113, respectively,
for those and will be trained up to the Sprint. The late-running
six-year-old has won at Lone Star before and will be a threat to
run past all his rivals on October 30.

Forego H. (G1) winner MIDAS EYES (Touch Gold) may also make
the Vosburgh and represents trainer Bobby Frankel, who is also
now preparing CAJUN BEAT (Grand Slam) for a title defense at Lone
Star. OUR NEW RECRUIT (Alphabet Soup), winner of the $2 million
Golden Shaheen S. (UAE-G1) in March and an impressive two-length
winner of Del Mar’s Pirate’s Bounty S. in his return, is another
top candidate.

The three-year-old FIRE SLAM (Grand Slam) and the late-running
CLOCK STOPPER (Gilded Time) also merit mention for this year’s
Sprint.

MILE

Europeans have captured the last two editions and can be
expected to deliver some top contenders this year. It’s too early
to identify exactly who will come, but English Two Thousand
Guineas (Eng-G1) hero HAAFHD (Alhaarth), French Group 1 winner
WHIPPER (Miesque’s Son), St. James’s Palace S. (Eng-G1) victor
AZAMOUR (Night Shift) and the Aidan O’Brien-trained ANTONIUS PIUS
(Danzig) are all talented three-year-olds considered possible for
this year’s Mile (G1).

A three-year-old filly won last year’s Mile at Santa Anita,
SIX PERFECTIONS (Fr) (Celtic Swing), and she’s expected to make a
title defense in Texas. However, Six Perfections is winless from
three starts in 2004. A couple of sophomore fillies from Europe
to watch for this year are Group 1 winners ATTRACTION (Efisio)
and GREY LILAS (Danehill).

REFUSE TO BEND (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells) recorded important wins
at the distance in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) and Queen Anne
(Eng-G1) this season, and the four-year-old is expected to make
the journey for Godolphin. NAYYIR (Indian Ridge), RAKTI (Polish
Precedent) and LUCKY STORY (Kris S.) would also be dangerous male
shippers from overseas, and older females NEBRASKA TORNADO (Storm
Cat) and CHIC (Machiavellian) can hold their own against anybody.

A pair of Julio Canani trainees, BLACKDOUN (Fr) (Verglas
[Ire]) and SPECIAL RING (Nureyev), head the American contingent.
The former swept the three-year-old turf stakes series at Del Mar
in impressive fashion and owns a powerful late kick. The
seven-year-old Special Ring, winner of the Eddie Read H. (G1) in
his lone 2004 appearance, can run his rivals into the ground on
the front end.

Atto Mile (Can-G1) winner SOARING FREE (Smart Strike), ARTIE
SCHILLER (El Prado [Ire]), NOTHING TO LOSE (Sky Classic), SILVER
TREE (Hennessy) and INTERCONTINENTAL (GB) (Danehill) are other
top North American-based Mile candidates.

FILLY & MARE TURF

The Filly & Mare Turf (G1) will be held at 1 3/8 miles
this year and run around three turns at Lone Star. The top three
finishers last year all shipped from Europe and this year’s
affair figures to have a strong international flavor again.

OUIJA BOARD (Cape Cross [Ire]), an authoritative winner of the
English Oaks (Eng-G1) and Irish Oaks (Ire-G1) in her last two
starts, is the top contender for the Filly & Mare Turf.
Another three-year-old filly who figures prominently if she makes
the trip is QUIFF (Sadler’s Wells), who recorded an 11-length win
in the Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-G1) before missing by a head against
Rule of Law in the St Leger (Eng-G1) last out. LATICE (Inchinor
[GB]) is another Group 1 winning three-year-old filly of
interest.

Older European-based candidates include classy runners like
FAVOURABLE TERMS (Selkirk), MILLIONAIA (Peintre Celebre), SWEET
STREAM (Shantou) and VALLEE ENCHANTEE (Peintre Celebre).

CRIMSON PALACE (SAf) (Elliodor) was a Group 3 Irish winner
earlier this year and shipped over to win the Beverly D. S. (G1)
at Arlington Park last out for Godolphin. American-based
contenders include John C. Mabee H. (G1) winner MUSICAL CHIMES
(In Excess [Ire]), multiple Grade 1 victress WONDER AGAIN (Silver
Hawk), American Invitational Oaks (G1) heroine TICKER TAPE (GB)
(Royal Applause [GB]) and the Bobby Frankel-trained Grade 1
winners LIGHT JIG (GB) (Danehill) and MEGAHERTZ (GB) (Pivotal).

JUVENILE

The final round of prep races will help sort out both
two-year-old divisions, but the leading Juvenile (G1) candidate
is easy to identify a month prior to the race. ROMAN RULER
(Fusaichi Pegasus) opened his career with an easy four-length
victory and then turned in a smashing performance to win the Best
Pal S. (G2) by seven lengths. The Bob Baffert-trained colt
suffered his first career defeat when finishing a close second in
the fastest seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G2) ever last time,
but he should keep improving off that stellar effort and relish
added ground and two turns with his regal pedigree. Sunday’s
Norfolk (G2) is next.

Del Mar Futurity winner DECLAN’S MOON (Malibu Moon) is on the
fence for the Juvenile and must be supplemented to run. The Ron
Ellis-trained colt is undefeated from two career starts.

Another undefeated two-year-old is Hopeful (G1) winner AFLEET
ALEX (Northern Afleet). His connections have mentioned the
possibility of skipping the Juvenile with the Florida-bred, but
the late-running colt would seem to deserve a shot at the Eclipse
Award. He’s headed to the October 9 Champagne S. (G1).

BELLAMY ROAD (Concerto) opened his career with a 7 1/2-length
maiden win at Delaware Park and then captured the Cradle S. (G3)
at River Downs by 2 3/4 lengths for trainer Michael Dickinson.
The dark bay colt will need to earn better BRIS Speed figures to
challenge at Lone Star (92 and 94).

PROUD ACCOLADE (Yes It’s True), an impressive winner in both
career starts at Saratoga, appears to be the best from a deep
roster of Todd Pletcher-trained youngsters. He’ll be tested for
class in the Champagne.

The Champagne is also expected to have PARK AVENUE BALL
(Citidancer), a three-length winner of the Futurity S. (G2) last
out for conditioner Jim Ryerson.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Much like the Juvenile with Roman Ruler, the Juvenile Fillies
(G1) features a possible stand out in SENSE OF STYLE (Thunder
Gulch). The unbeaten bay lass won the Spinaway S. (G2) by 6 3/4
lengths in her second start and then recorded an excellent
triumph in the Matron S. (G1) last out. Trainer Patrick Biancone
plans to give her a two-turn prep in the October 8 Alciabides S.
(G2), and another impressive tally could send Sense of Style off
as the heaviest favorite on Breeders’ Cup day.

Top rivals right now include BALLETTO (UAE) (Timber Country),
CULINARY (El Amante), IM A DIXIE GIRL (Dixie Union), MISS MATCHED
(Formal Gold), PLAY WITH FIRE (Boundary), PUNCH APPEAL
(Successful Appeal) and SWEET CATOMINE (Storm Cat).