Making a score at the Breeders’ Cup

BREEDERS’ CUP
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Making a score at the Breeders’ Cup

by Richard Nilsen

What does it take to make a score at the Breeders’ Cup?
Racing’s greatest day is very attractive to horseplayers for the
possibility of nailing a blockbuster payoff or two. Best of all,
you don’t have to hit the guaranteed $3 million Pick 6 to win big
on Cup day. As we will see from this extensive exotics study,
there are plenty of scores to be had in the exacta and trifecta
pools.

Believe it or not, it was not until the 1990 Classic (G1) that
a trifecta wager was offered on a Cup race. The first six years
of the Breeders’ Cup did not have a trifecta bet on the wagering
menu. It was not until 1994 that a trifecta was offered on every
race.

The Breeders’ Cup was a little more progressive with the
exacta, offering it on the full card beginning in 1988. Several
Cup races prior to that allowed only straight wagering (win,
place, and show).

Boy, have times changed. Now the horseplayer can choose from
superfectas, rolling Pick 3s, rolling Pick 4s, a monstrous Pick 6
and even Head-to-Head wagers.

There have been some incredible values over the years,
including:

Average payoffs

Let’s start with the basics. In two decades of Breeders’ Cup
action, 134 exactas and 76 trifectas have been offered. The
average $2 exacta has returned $215. The average $1 trifecta
payoff has been $1,457, with 41 of the 76 being taxable
trifectas. Yes, Uncle Sam wants you to play the trifecta!

Winning favorites have scored at a healthy 36.5 percent clip
from the 145 races.

1995 Classic winner Cigar   (Horsephotos.com) Odds-on analysis There have been 18 exactas that involved an odds-on favorite who finished first or second (last year there were none). The average payoff in those circumstances was $34.11. Consider that an odds-on horse is more than twice as likely to win as to run second. The average $1 trifecta payoff has been $253.71 when an odds-on runner has finished in the money. The high payoff from the 10 occurrences was $644.10 in the 1996 Classic when Cigar at odds of 3-5 finished third. Field size As one might expect, field size can have a significant bearing on the exotic payoffs. Since there have been so many full fields over the past few years, I used nine horses as the cutoff for this analysis. There have been 37 Breeders’ Cup events with nine or fewer betting interests. The average exacta has returned $123. The average trifecta has returned $767. Winning favorites have scored 14 times, a 37.8 percent rate. There have been many more races (108) with at least 10 betting interests. The average exacta has returned a healthy $248, while the average trifecta has returned $1,615. Winning favorites have scored 38 times for a 35.2 percent rate, slightly less than the overall average of 36.5 percent discussed earlier.

Longshot analysis

From the 145 Breeders’ Cup run to date, how many times do you
think a longshot at odds of 20-1 or higher placed first or
second? Would you believe 44 times? That’s a lot of races. In
fact, it’s 30 percent of all the Cup races over the past 20
years.

If you were lucky enough to hit the exacta involving one of
these longshots (38 wagering opportunities), on average, you
would have received $463 for every $2 wagered.

Consider also that of the 44 races, longshots won 17 times,
and only once did longshots finish both first AND second.

Trifecta strategies

Instead of spreading your money around – $10 here, $20 there -
take a good swing at one or two races. Pinpoint the one or two
races on the card you feel most confident about. Then, identify
preferably one key horse and the must-use runners underneath.

If you’re playing the trifecta, you can key one horse over six
runners for only $30. Or, you can wheel two horses (one of which
must win) over six horses, which of course would include the top
two, for only $40.

Another variation would include going deep in the third tier.
Key one horse over the five other contenders and then use ALL in
the third slot. Based on a 14-horse field, that’s a $60 wager.
You could use the “key” horse in the second slot,
putting the five runners on top, for an additional $60. With that
strategy, a “bad beat” could still result in a major
score!

Below are the examples just discussed:

There are plenty of other ways to play the trifecta. By
concentrating on one or two good opportunities, you’ll have the
time to come up with the correct wagering strategy and increase
your chances of winning. Best of luck and hope to see you at the
IRS Window!