Road to the Breeders’ Cup – 10/28

ROAD TO
THE BREEDERS’ CUP

by James Scully

The fields are set for what promises to be an exciting day of
racing at Lone Star Park. A brief preview of each race follows.

Classic

Roses in May owns only one off-the-board placing from 10 starts (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com) AZERI (Jade Hunter) has dominated recent headlines and will continue to draw plenty of hype through Saturday. Her 15-1 morning line odds are too high — she could be 5-1 or lower by post time — and the more who want to wager upon her the better. She’s got as much business in the Classic (G1) as PLEASANTLY PERFECT (Pleasant Colony) would in the Sprint (G1). Ten furlongs is the wrong distance. She does drastically alter the pace scenario, especially with the inside post. ROSES IN MAY (Devil His Due) doesn’t benefit from Azeri being in the field, but he remains a strong presence on the front end and should inherit the lead when Azeri begins to backtrack. Late runners Pleasantly Perfect, DYNEVER (Dynaformer) and PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) should all get a realistic pace to run at, and GHOSTZAPPER (Awesome Again) figures to enjoy a perfect stalking trip. Ghostzapper won’t offer a lot of value, but he owns the best BRIS Speed ratings and runs well fresh. The four-year-old enters the Classic off a 49-day rest and can handle any kind of footing. He appears to be training well and looks difficult to stop.

Pleasantly Perfect was at his best stringing together
victories in last year’s Classic, January’s San Antonio H. (G2)
and the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) in March, but he regressed in
his last two starts at Del Mar, earning only a 99 BRIS Speed
figure for a runner-up finish in the San Diego (G2) and a 94 Late
Pace rating for his narrow win over PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) in
the Pacific Classic (G1).

He missed the perfect prep in the Goodwood Breeders’ Cup H. (G2)
and looks like an underlay.

FANTASTICAT (Storm Cat) is the longshot special. Three-year-olds
peaking at the end of the year are always dangerous and seven
sophomores have captured the Classic. Many brought improving form
into the race and were overlooked at the windows. Fantasticat
fits that definition, earning his first stakes win in the Super
Derby (G2) last out. He’s recorded century-topping BRIS Late Pace
ratings in his last three outings and could come finish up
strongly for part.

Top 3 – Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Fantasticat

Turf

KITTEN’S JOY (El Prado [Ire]) benefits from the departure of
OUIJA BOARD (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) to the Filly & Mare Turf
(G1) because the classy mare is proven at 12 furlongs. She would
have difficulty beating him regardless, though, because Kitten’s
Joy has developed into perhaps the best turf horse in the world
for conditioner Dale Romans.

The three-year-old proved himself at the 1 1/2-mile Turf (G1)
distance with an impressive triumph in the Joe Hirsch Turf
Invitational (G1) last out, and the possibility of a soft turf
should be no impediment as the Joe Hirsch score came over
yielding ground. The Turf has featured dominant scores from heavy
favorites like High Chaparral (2002), Daylami (Ire) and Chief Bearhart in recent years, and we could be treated to more of the
same again.

MAGISTRETTI (Diesis [GB]) is the top rival. Following solid
off-the-pace showings in his first two U.S. starts, the Arlington
Million (G1) and Man o’ War (G1), the Pat Biancone charge raced
close to the front early in the Joe Hirsch and couldn’t go on
with Kitten’s Joy through the stretch. Magistretti looks much
more dangerous reverting to rating tactics.

POWERSCOURT (GB) (Sadler’s Wells) may prefer 10 furlongs, but
he finished first in the Arlington Million and owns the class to
be a factor. The remaining opponents, for the most part, have not
distinguished themselves. MUSTANFAR (Unbridled) is a threat to
break through with a strong performance.

A Triple Crown hopeful earlier in the season, Mustanfar moved
to the grass in the summer and has found a home on the sod,
winning the Lexington S. (G3) via disqualification before
finishing second in a couple of graded events. He moved forward
last time at Keeneland, demonstrating a terrific turn of foot to
roll past his rivals through the stretch of the 1 1/2-mile
Sycamore Breeders’ Cup (G3) at Keeneland, and may continue to
show more for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He’s an attractive 20-1
on the morning line.

Top 3 – Kitten’s Joy, Mustanfar, Magistretti

Sprint

The Sprint (G1) looks like a terrific betting race. Morning
line favorite SPEIGHTSTOWN (Gone West) comes off his first defeat
and doesn’t appear capable of making the early lead. MIDAS EYES (Touch
Gold) probably isn’t a six-furlong horse and CAJUN BEAT (Grand
Slam) doesn’t look nearly as sharp as when upsetting last year’s
event. Late runners CLOCK STOPPER (Gilded Time) and KELA (Numerous)
probably need a little more ground to be most effective.

Those are the only horses listed at less than 10-1 on the
morning line. I’ll try to beat all five.

CHAMPALI (Glitterman) has the Speed ratings to win and is a
confirmed six-furlong specialist. He rallied gamely to win the
Phoenix Breeders’ Cup (G3) from just off the pace last time and
proved ultra-tough with a gutsy front-end victory over a strong
field in the Smile Sprint H. (G3) three starts back. Those
performances, both at six furlongs, earned him 113 and 110 Speed
figures.

Champali, who owns three stakes victories at the distance this
year, brings the right running style to a typically speed-favoring
Lone Star strip and will have the hot-riding Rafael Bejarano in
the saddle. Very appealing.

Our New Recruit returned off a more than five-month layoff to take the Pirate’s Bounty (Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com) Another top contender at double-digit odds on the morning line is OUR NEW RECRUIT (Alphabet Soup), who came to hand this year for trainer John Sadler with a stellar two-length triumph in the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) and returned off the bench to run the fastest six furlongs at Del Mar when winning the Pirate’s Bounty in early September. Like Champali, Our New Recruit is a confirmed six-furlong horse with top Speed figures to his credit. He also has an up-and-coming rider aboard in Tyler Baze. The longshot special is BWANA CHARLIE (Indian Charlie), who is listed at 30-1. Trainer Steve Asmussen gave the three-year-old a prep over the track in the Alysheba Breeders’ Cup S. and Bwana Charlie rallied well to just miss in a runner-up performance. Winner of the six-furlong Amsterdam S. (G2) at Saratoga, Bwana Charlie owns a 5-2-2-1 mark at six furlongs and could be a serious late presence. Top 3 – Champali, Our New Recruit, Bwana Charlie Mile The Mile (G1) is one of the most contentious races on the afternoon with a wealth of viable contenders present. Trainer Julio Canani, a two-time Mile winner, holds a strong hand with SPECIAL RING (Nureyev) and BLACKDOUN (Fr) (Verglas [Ire]). The former runs on the front end while Blackdoun packs a formidable late punch.

NOTHING TO LOSE (Sky Classic) has improved many lengths for
trainer Bobby Frankel this season and enters the Mile off a very
sharp performance, easily winning the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1)
over a classy field at Keeneland last out. MR O’BRIEN (Ire) (Mukaddamah)
comes off a commendable victory in the Kelso Breeders’ Cup H. (G2)
and likes to win, taking four-of-five turf attempts at the
distance. It’s easy to make a case for either given their current
form.

Three-year-old ARTIE SCHILLER (El Prado [Ire]), an
authoritative winner of four of his last five starts, with the
only setback a runner-up to Kitten’s Joy, must also be respected,
and SIX PERFECTIONS (Fr) (Celtic Swing) appears very capable of
repeating.

A longshot who has been training forwardly recently and ran
well in his lone previous turf appearance is DOMESTIC DISPUTE (Unbridled’s
Song). He came on at the end of last year for trainer Patrick
Gallagher and ran a big race two starts back on the dirt last
month when second by a nose in the Del Mar Breeders’ Cup H. (G2).
The four-year-old is one to consider for the exotics at long odds.

Top 3 – Special Ring, Nothing to Lose, Domestic Dispute

Distaff

Azeri’s defection leaves ASHADO (Saint Ballado) as the
lukewarm 7-2 favorite on the morning line and the Kentucky Oaks (G1)
winner brings good form into the 1 1/8-mile Distaff (G1) and is
well drawn to the inside. She could give trainer Todd Pletcher
his first Breeders’ Cup winner.

ELLOLUV (Gilded Time) also drew a favorable inside post and
should carve out a nice trip on the front end under Corey
Nakatani. Last year’s Distaff runner-up is listed at 10-1 on the
morning line and isn’t getting much attention, but Elloluv turned
in a fine performance to capture the Piedra Foundation H. two
starts back and finished third by a half-length in the Lady’s
Secret Breeders’ Cup H. (G2). She’s on the upswing for trainer
Craig Dollase.

SOCIETY SELECTION (Coronado’s Quest) will attempt to come
charging late for the win, and she’s better than she showed when
finishing second in the paceless Beldame S. (G1) last time. The
sophomore filly could run back to her two stellar performances at
Saratoga this summer.

European NEBRASKA TORNADO (Storm Cat) is a very intriguing
candidate making her first dirt start, and ISLAND FASHION (Petionville)
is another legitimate danger. The Lone Star track is favorably
compared to Santa Anita, and Island Fashion has run her best
races there.

Top 3 – Elloluv, Society Selection, Ashado

Filly & Mare Turf

Ouija Board will be a heavy favorite in the Filly & Mare
Turf, but the sophomore filly will have to deal with the tight
turns three times at Lone Star and may be better suited to the 1
1/2-mile Turf distance. She still appears to own a significant
class edge over her 11 rivals, but she’s a little reminiscent of
another 12-furlong-loving three-year-old filly, Petrushka (Ire),
who finished a close fifth at 7-5 in the three-turn Filly &
Mare Turf at Churchill Downs in 2000.

LIGHT JIG (GB) (Danehill) wouldn’t want any part of Ouija
Board in Europe, but she might beat her on Saturday. The four-year-old
miss really came on for Frankel this year, recording a sharp
score in the Beverly Hill H. (G2) in late June and romping by
four lengths in the Yellow Ribbon (G1) most recently. She should
be flying late under Rene Douglas.

MEGAHERTZ (GB) (Pivotal) could run a big race off the shelf
for Frankel at much higher odds (10-1 morning line), and trainer
James Cassidy has a longshot candidate in MOSCOW BURNING (Moscow
Ballet), who missed by only three parts of a length in the Flower
Bowl Invitational H. (G1) last time and has been very honest in
her recent starts against top company. The four-year-old miss
will be up close from the start and could spark some worthwhile
exotics.

SUPER BRAND (SAf) enters the Breeders’ Cup off two fine
showings in the United States, including a fast-closing second in
Keeneland’s Galaxy S. (G2), and is another longshot to
consider for the bottom gimmicks.

Top 3 – Light Jig, Ouija Board, Moscow Burning

Juvenile

ROMAN RULER (Fusaichi Pegasus) is listed at 8-5 on the morning
line for the Juvenile (G1), but the Bob Baffert-trained colt
didn’t finish well winning the Norfolk S. (G2) last out and
appears vulnerable.

PROUD ACCOLADE (Yes It’s True) is going in the right direction.
The improving colt crushed overmatched maiden and allowance
rivals in her first two career starts at the Spa before winning
the Champagne S. (G1) last out, and the Pletcher trainee earned a
whopping BRIS 108 Speed rating there while traveling wide the
entire way. He should keep showing more.

SUN KING (Charismatic) finished third in the Champagne and
also owns a terrific upside. He just broke his maiden two starts
back and didn’t receive the best trip racing close to the lead
from the start in the Champagne. The dark bay colt gained
valuable experience from those two starts and could put it all
together in the Juvenile.

Afleet Alex will attempt to wrap up juvenile championship honors with a win in the Juvenile (Jim Tyrrell/Horsephotos.com) Hopeful (G1) hero AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) likes to win, taking his first four starts before suffering a narrow setback in the Champagne. He’s tough to overlook. Top 3 – Proud Accolade, Sun King, Afleet Alex Juvenile Fillies The Alcibiades (G2) featured five contestants in the Juvenile Fillies (G1), including the formerly unbeaten Grade 1 queen SENSE OF STYLE (Thunder Gulch). However, the final Alcibiades outcome, with less than two lengths separating the top five finishers at the wire, doesn’t flatter those runners. SWEET CATOMINE (Storm Cat) is the morning-line choice at 5-2, and the late-running filly comes off a sharp four-length tally in the Oak Leaf S. (G2) that netted a 101 Speed rating. She looks talented enough to reel off her third straight stakes win here, but she’s caught some soft fields and her one-run closing style isn’t attractive at short odds with the lack of early speed in this field. BALLETTO (UAE) (Timber Country) closed superbly off a stiff early pace to win the Frizette S. (G1) last time, but the chestnut also owns plenty of tactical speed and is drawn favorably toward the inside. She’s won three of four career starts, finishing second by a length in the Matron S. (G1) in her lone setback, and should get the jump on her main rival on Saturday.

CULINARY (El Amante) offers much better value. An easy winner
of the Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3) last out, the unbeaten
gray earned an excellent 107 Late Pace figure last time and has
trained forwardly since then for Michael Stidham.

Top 3 – Balletto, Sweet Catomine, Culinary