Arkansas Derby

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

GREATER GOOD (Intidab), who is unbeaten in four two-turn stakes races, and twice over this surface, is clearly the one to beat in Saturday’s 1
1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G2). The Bob Holthus trainee has done everything right,
and probably deserves to be the favorite, but we like AFLEET ALEX (Northern
Afleet), who was widely considered one of the best two-year-olds in the country
last year.

Afleet Alex won the prestigious Hopeful S. (G1) at seven furlongs before
finishing a close second in the Champagne S. (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1). His three-quarters of a length defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
probably cost him the Eclipse Award for champion two-year-old. In the 1
1/16-mile race at Lone Star, Afleet Alex was significantly wide around both
turns before finishing a neck in front of Sun King (Charismatic), who is a
leading contender in Saturday’s Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland. That was his
first start around two turns, so it’s not like he can’t handle it, despite what
his critics may say.

Trainer Tim Ritchey surprised everyone when he entered Afleet Alex in the
six-furlong Mountain Valley S. for his three-year-old debut. The colt broke
last, then rolled to a daylight victory while galloping out seven furlongs in
1:22 3/5. He was made the 3-5 favorite for the 1 1/16-mile Rebel S. (G3)
(his second two-turn race) and then proceeded to settle into a nice striking
position before stopping badly and finishing last under new rider John
Velazquez. It was later discovered that he suffered from a lung infection.

Since then, Afleet Alex has trained forwardly, working one mile in 1:40 4/5
(running his final three furlongs in :34 4/5) on April 3, and sizzling four
furlongs in a bullet :46 1/5 (running his final quarter-mile in :21 4/5) on
Tuesday. Obviously, this is an extremely fast, talented horse. Also, some of his
critics have mentioned that he has worn front bandages in both his starts this
year. So what. Smarty Jones wore four running bandages last year and just missed
the Triple Crown, and many great horses throughout history have had them, including
Forego. They add protection and support, so what’s wrong with that?

With the lack of any real pacesetters, we think Afleet Alex will be able to
take the lead as he pleases. He is our top choice.

Greater Good won the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Cup Juvenile S. (G3) in his
two-turn debut, then finished a troubled third in the one-turn Iroquois S. (G3),
before winning the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs
last fall. The bay came from last to win the one-mile Southwest S. in his sophomore
debut and then closed determinedly to defeat Rockport Harbor (Unbridled’s Song) in the Rebel. Greater
Good is tactically drawn on the outside for a clear, outside trip. He is a
serious stretch runner who must be respected.

The Todd Pletcher-trained FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor) attended the early
pace, dropped back around the turn, then came running late with WILD DESERT
(Wild Rush) to win the muddy, nine-furlong Lane’s End S. (G2) by a half-length
at Turfway Park. The lightly raced colt trains with Fountain of Youth S. (G2)
runner-up Bandini (Fusaichi Pegasus), who is a top contender in Saturday’s Blue
Grass. Flower Alley likely will be in the mix early and would be no
surprise to hit the board.

Wild Desert is a solid closer who ran third to Greater Good in the Kentucky
Jockey Club and a close second to Flower Alley in the Lane’s End last out.
Trained by Kenny McPeek, the bay colt is a consistent sort, finishing third or
better in six of 10 career starts. Wild Desert gets top Southern California rider Pat
Valenzuela in the saddle and could factor late for a share.

CANTEEN (Fusaichi Pegasus), who is technically still a maiden, pressed the
early pace from post 11 before proving best by a nostril in a 1 1/16-mile maiden
test at Santa Anita in his last start, only to be disqualified and placed
second. Trained by Neil Drysdale, the dark bay colt has displayed excellent
early speed in all three of his career starts and is nicely drawn near the
inside. He could try to steal this on the front end under Victor Espinoza and
may add value to the exotics at 12-1 on the morning line. Kentucky Jockey Club
runner-up RUSH BAY (Cozzene), trained by the ever-dangerous Tom Amoss, finished
a disappointing eighth in the Risen Star S. (G3), then was a pretty open-length
winner going two turns against allowance foes last out. He has some upset
potential with continued improvement.

Tampa Bay Downs stakes winner ANDROMEDA’S HERO (Fusaichi Pegasus) finished an
even fifth in the Lane’s End, but is trained by Nick Zito, who seemingly trains all the top Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders. The chestnut figures
to save ground around the first turn and likes to come running from off the
pace. He should be considered, but could go forth as an underlay given his
connections. The Steve Asmussen-trained REAL DANDY (Yankee Victor) ran a good
second in the Risen Star and then a non-threatening fifth in the Louisiana Derby
(G2). He would have to improve significantly to factor.

Pete Vestal trained both the sire and dam of BATSON CHALLENGE (Ide), who
finished a better-than-expected third to Greater Good in the Rebel. The bay colt
has some tactical speed and begins on the rail. He is possible, but not
probable, for share. CAT SHAKER (Catienus) won the 1 1/16-mile Rushaway S. in
the mud on the Lane’s End undercard but would be a surprise against these.

TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS:		1st-AFLEET ALEX
		2nd-GREATER GOOD
		3rd-FLOWER ALLEY