TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
BLUE GRASS S. (G1), 9TH-KEE, $750,000, 3YO, 1 1/8M, 5:45 P.M. EDT, 4-16 |
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PP | HORSE | TRAINER | JOCKEY | WT |
1 |
MR SWORD |
PEDERSEN JENNIFER |
BAILEY J D |
123 |
2 |
CLOSING ARGUMENT |
MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P |
VELASQUEZ CORNE |
123 |
3 |
SPANISH CHESTNUT |
BIANCONE PATRICK L |
STEVENS G L |
123 |
4 |
CONSOLIDATOR |
LUKAS D WAYNE |
BEJARANO R |
123 |
5 |
HIGH LIMIT |
FRANKEL ROBERT J |
DOMINGUEZ R A |
123 |
6 |
SUN KING |
ZITO NICHOLAS P |
PRADO E S |
123 |
7 |
BANDINI |
PLETCHER TODD A |
VELAZQUEZ J R |
123 |
Saturday’s $750,000 Blue Grass S. (G1) features four top contenders for this
year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) in SUN KING (Charismatic), HIGH LIMIT (Maria’s Mon),
CONSOLIDATOR (Storm Cat) and BANDINI (Fusaichi Pegasus), but none have really
distinguished themselves so far this season and there is some value to be had in
the seven-horse field.
CLOSING ARGUMENT (Successful Appeal) is proven at the distance, winning the 1
1/8-mile Holy Bull S. (G3) by 1 1/2 lengths in his last outing, and he more
importantly earned a 107 BRIS Speed rating for the hard-fought victory. He had
to out-battle High Fly (Atticus), who came back to win the Fountain of Youth
(G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in successive starts, to earn his first graded
score, and Closing Argument is being overlooked off this upset victory. The
Kiaran McLaughlin trainee hasn’t raced in 70 days, but he’s trained forwardly at
Keeneland and figures to receive a perfect ground-saving trip from his inside
post. Closing Argument should be stalking fast early fractions, and we’ll look
for him to strike at the top of the stretch.
Sun King can be placed anywhere by jockey Edgar Prado and has turned in two
bang-up performances this year, easily taking an allowance at Gulfstream before
winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Trainer Nick Zito, who has a stable full of
sophomore stars, has raved about this dark bay’s ability all year and Sun King
has earned triple digit Speed ratings in his last five starts. He figures to be
in perfect position to challenge for it all leaving the far turn and is a
logical win play at short odds.
Consolidator figures to sit a great trip just off the front runners and has
recorded century-topping BRIS Late Pace figures in each of his last four outings. The
D. Wayne Lukas charge comes off a stirring 6 1/2-length score in the San Felipe
S. (G2) at Santa Anita and captured the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland
last fall. Consolidator did inherit easy leads when the other speed suddenly
stopped in both those races and will probably have to work hard every step of
the way here. We respect his win chances, but a minor award appears more likely.
Bandini broke his maiden by 4 1/4 lengths in early January, captured an
allowance by nine lengths in his next start and then finished second by a
three parts of a length to High Fly in the Fountain of Youth. The Todd Pletcher trainee owns
plenty of room for improvement and gained valuable experience rating last time
after recording both wins in wire-to-wire fashion. He’ll be sitting up close
under John Velazquez and can’t be dismissed from win consideration, but Bandini
threatens to get carried wide into the first turn from the far outside post and
is still a little light on experience.
High Limit has never been headed at any point of call in his career but
probably won’t set the pace here with SPANISH CHESTNUT (Horse Chestnut [SAf])
located to his inside. The Bobby Frankel trainee may be talented enough to
adapt, but the unbeaten colt is still inexperienced and couldn’t have had an easier
trip when winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his seasonal bow. We won’t be
shocked to see High Limit battle hard the entire way and out-finish his main
rivals through the stretch, but we’re willing to go against that possibility in
what could prove to be a learning experience for the unseasoned bay.
MR SWORD (Rizzi) turned in a terrific work over the track on Tuesday (bullet five furlongs
in :57 4/5) and appears to be coming to hand for trainer Jennifer Pedersen, but
we have our doubts about this colt’s ability at nine furlongs. He tired badly
last time in the Lane’s End S. (G2) and will have to surprise us to be a factor
here. Spanish Chestnut also doesn’t want any part of 1 1/8 miles and would have
been a much better fit in next Saturday’s Lexington S. (G2) going 8 1/2
furlongs.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: | 1st-CLOSING ARGUMENT | |
2nd-SUN KING | ||
3rd-CONSOLIDATOR |