ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
APRIL 20, 2005
by James Scully
AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) and BANDINI (Fusaichi Pegasus)
turned what appeared to be competitive editions of the Arkansas Derby (G2) and
Blue Grass S. (G1) last Saturday into runaway victories. Both greatly improved
their stock for the Kentucky Derby (G1) three weeks later.
Afleet Alex’s stretch run was breathtaking. The Tim Ritchey
charge earned a 107 BRIS Speed rating for the eight-length triumph, but the bay
colt’s 121 Late Pace rating tells the story. He quickly advanced four wide on
the far turn and appeared to be shot out of a cannon when straightening for
home, blistering to the wire with a final eighth in :11 4/5. A repeat
performance in the stretch at Churchill Downs will have Afleet Alex wearing the
Roses.
Things haven’t gone smoothly this year for the bay colt.
Ritchey, who has never had a Kentucky Derby starter, originally planned to run
Afleet Alex only twice before this year’s Kentucky Derby but had a change of
heart after talking to Billy Turner, who guided the only undefeated Triple Crown
winner, Seattle Slew. Afleet Alex made an unexpected seasonal bow in the
six-furlong Mountain Valley S. on March 5, winning easily by 2 3/4 lengths, and
then went to the Rebel S. (G3) two weeks later. He faded badly on the far turn
that afternoon to finish last in the six-horse field.
Jockey John Velazquez, who committed to ride Afleet Alex in the
Kentucky Derby over the winter, jumped ship following the Rebel and many felt
the bubble had burst on Afleet Alex’s Kentucky Derby hopes. But a lung infection
was to blame for the colt’s poor performance, and Afleet Alex quickly recovered
from the illness and trained forwardly for the Arkansas Derby.
“What a difference without a lung infection,” Ritchey said.
“Alex ran the race I knew he could. And I guess he silenced the skeptics who
said he couldn’t get two turns.”
Oaklawn’s leading rider, Jeremy Rose, regained the mount on
Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby and has earned the mount for the Kentucky
Derby, even though Afleet Alex’s connections haven’t confirmed anything yet.
Many feel BELLAMY ROAD’s (Concerto) Wood Memorial (G1) was the
best performance by any Kentucky Derby contender this year, but he had
everything his own way on a speed-favoring Aqueduct strip that afternoon and
will face completely different circumstances in Louisville, Kentucky. Afleet
Alex turned in the most encouraging performance by any Kentucky Derby contender
I’ve seen this year, and Bandini’s Blue Grass ranks a close second.
Mostly unknown entering 2005, Bandini captured his first two
starts at Gulfstream Park (maiden and allowance events) in wire-to-wire fashion,
but he was forced to rate when making his stakes bow in the Fountain of Youth S.
(G2) and his inexperience showed as the colt lost his focus leaving the far
turn. He still closed well late for second, and Bandini proved to be a much more
seasoned individual at Keeneland, relaxing beautifully in the early going and
moving on cue when asked by Velazquez on the final bend, effortlessly taking the
lead at the top of the stretch and racing to the finish line in a professional
manner. He earned a 109 Speed rating for the six-length win.
“He ran much better today than he did in the Fountain of Youth,”
Velazquez explained. “He learns from every race and this experience will teach
him even more. He is much more focused now.”
Bandini gives trainer Todd Pletcher a legitimate chance at his
first Kentucky Derby victory.
Going back to the Arkansas Derby, FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor)
finished a fine second in his second stakes start after taking the Lane’s End S.
(G2) at Turfway Park. The chestnut colt may be too lightly raced (only four
career starts) and his Speed ratings are still a little low (only one
triple-digit figure to his credit), but Flower Alley owns plenty of room for
improvement and could be much more of a factor in this division later in the summer.
ANDROMEDA’S HERO (Fusaichi Pegasus) barely got up in deep
stretch for third and could give trainer Nick Zito a fifth Derby starter, but
the stakes-winning colt hasn’t finished well in his last two outings and will
need to improve significantly to challenge against Grade 1 company. Rebel winner
GREATER GOOD (Intidab) broke from post 10 and never got involved in the running,
breaking a three-race winning streak for trainer Bob Holthus with a fifth-place
finish. This looks like a good race to throw out for the classy ridgling, but
Greater Good doesn’t have the pedigree for 10 furlongs and his Speed ratings
don’t compare favorably to other top contenders.
In the Blue Grass, HIGH LIMIT (Maria’s Mon) suffered his first
career defeat but still offered a commendable run for second. After never being
headed at any point of call in his first three starts, the Bobby Frankel-trained
colt sat off the speed in the Blue Grass and moved well between calls on the far
turn to take a brief lead before being passed by Bandini. High Limit stayed on
to be a clear second in what figures to be a great learning experience. His
first race of the year, the Louisiana Derby (G2), was a lot like the Wood in
that High Limit got to the lead and was never challenged in posting an easy win.
The bay colt got much more of a taste of the adversity he’ll face in the
Kentucky Derby and should build upon the Blue Grass.
The Blue Grass was also the first real race of the year for SUN
KING (Charismatic), who failed the test with a fourth-place effort. However, Keeneland remains
a very quirky and different racing surface from Churchill Downs, and Sun King,
who was always wide and one-paced on Saturday, remains a threat to bounce back
with a much improved showing next time. The Zito trainee showed his class at two
and owns Speed figures of 107 and 106, but his second start this year in the
Tampa Bay Derby (G3), which was basically a public workout in wire-to-wire
manner, didn’t do him any favors. Sun King needed a difficult race to toughen
him up for the Kentucky Derby, and he could be a live play at nice odds on Derby
Day.
CONSOLIDATOR (Storm Cat) did little to to dispute the negative
image of California-based three-year-olds this year with a fifth in the Blue
Grass. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee changed tactics, rating farther off the pace
than usual, with disastrous results, but we must remember that the Lukas-trained
Thunder Gulch ran terrible when rating in the 1995 Blue Grass and then bounced
to win the Kentucky Derby. However, history doesn’t appear likely to repeat
itself. Consolidator will probably face serious pace pressure at Churchill, and
there are still legitimate questions surrounding his ability.
Saturday’s Lexington S. (G2), which will feature ROCKPORT HARBOR
(Unbridled’s Song), is the final serious prep for the Derby. We’ll have
the opportunity to begin dissecting the big event next week.