CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
MAY 12, 2005
by Dick Powell
How do you explain the unexplainable? A 50-1 shot and a 71-1 shot run one-two
in the Kentucky Derby (G1) with record exotic payoffs all around. The only
thing more improbable than this year’s Derby result was Diego Corrales getting
up off the canvas twice in the 10th round and stopping Jose Luis Castillo 30
seconds later in their Lightweight Championship fight Saturday night. You watch
enough events and you get to see everything and Saturday’s Run for the Roses
left most shaking their heads.
Ordinarily, we would say the race fell apart, draw a line through it, and
move on. But we need to at least try to make sense of the outcome for future
purposes.
On Saturday, WILDCAT SHOES (Forest Wildcat) won the 2ND race going six
furlongs in 1:08.03. And this was after covering the first half in 43.78. You
could tell by the flags waving that there was a strong wind coming across the
track from the backside to the frontside, so horses in one-turn sprints had the
wind at their sides on the straightaways and behind them on the turn.
Obviously, based on the running times of the early races, the main track was
rock hard and sprinters never really had to contend with the strong wind. As the
day wore on, the inside paths seemed to be the deepest part of the main track.
Madcap Escapade (Hennessy) threw out the anchor at the eight pole in the Humana
Distaff H. (G1) while racing up against the rail despite setting modest
(for her) fractions.
By the time the Derby was run, the wind seemed to die down to a stiff breeze.
Still, the horses would be running into it going around the first turn and it
would be interesting to see who would benefit.
As expected, Spanish Chestnut (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) gunned to the front in his
rabbit’s role and led the field by the stands the first time. Joe Bravo had him
three paths away from the rail and he covered the first quarter in 22.28. Around
the turn into the wind while a bit wide, he hit the half in 45.38 and I maintain
that the impact of the pace was even greater considering it was into the wind.
With the exception of Closing Argument (Successful Appeal), every horse who
was near the early pace was nowhere to be found at the end. And he, luckily, had
a wide trip on what was probably the best part of the track. With the big field,
you were better off being wide and clear than down on a dead rail and in
traffic.
So we have a blistering pace with the outside seeming to provide the better
footing yet the track was very hard and carrying speed. Usually when you see a
chart like this year’s Derby, you can assume it was a tiring track. But it was a
rock-hard track that carried speed and the top two finishers had pedigrees that
made them very suspect going 10 furlongs. Sounds contradictory to me and it is.
If you told me before the race that there would be a blistering pace into a
headwind and that nearly all the front runners would wilt under it, I would have to
assume that the strong horses would have a major edge. Stout pedigrees would
seem to be the order of the day. But this year’s Derby was not a true test of
stamina for those that bided their time early and the hard track enabled the top
two to negotiate 10 furlongs despite suspect pedigrees and in the case of the
winner, GIACOMO (Holy Bull), a higher than accepted dosage index.
When looking back at this year’s Derby, forgive the horses who ran near the
pace and those that raced on the inside — High Fly (Atticus), Sun King
(Charismatic), Noble Causeway (Giant’s Causeway) and, to a lesser extent,
Andromeda’s Hero (Fusaichi Pegasus) and High Limit (Maria’s Mon).
Spanish Chestnut, Bellamy Road (Concerto), Going Wild (Golden Missile) and
Flower Alley (Distorted Humor) all raced on or near the blistering pace and paid
for it when the running got serious and they came up empty.
Giacomo was a highly-regarded juvenile last year for John Shirreffs and was
only beaten a length in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) by Declan’s Moon (Malibu
Moon). He made his seasonal debut in the Sham S. going nine furlongs and was third behind
Going Wild in a wide trip. In the San Felipe S. (G2), he was beaten by six lengths
on a wet-fast track that favored speed all day.
My problem with him was in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when he was fourth behind
speed horses and could not make up any ground. His past
performance lines show a horse that doesn’t pass other horses willingly and he
looked like a toss. However, after the Santa Anita Derby, Shirreffs put the
hammer down and he worked seven furlongs in a brilliant 1:23 4/5 and then six
furlongs in 1:11 4/5.
With all the rain in Southern California this winter, many horses had
interrupted training regimens and I could excuse his first two efforts of the
year but not his third.
Plus, his sire Holy Bull has a relatively low average winning distance of 6.9
furlongs and hasn’t produced many two-turn main track stakes winners. His dosage
index was above 4.0 and unless your name was Giacomo it was hard to come up with
him.
Closing Argument I thought was somewhat more logical than Giacomo after the race was run and my scalp was bleeding from scratching it. Two
starts back in his seasonal debut, he won the Holy Bull S. (G3) at
Gulfstream going nine furlongs and handed High Fly his first loss. BRIS gave him a very
high Speed figure of 107 for the effort. His training was interrupted afterward
and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin skipped the Florida Derby (G1) and gave him two
more weeks for the Bluegrass S. (G1).
Off a 10-week layoff, Closing Argument was third, beaten nine lengths, after
being bumped and racing extremely wide. His Speed figure was only a 99 but he
looked like he had a slight chance based on his Holy Bull win and the fact that
with only two starts this year he might still have room to improve.
My problem with Closing Argument was a pedigree that screamed speed —
Successful Appeal out of a Mr. Greeley mare. Post 18 didn’t figure to help,
especially with his pace-prompting running style, and I tossed him. Still, you
could make an argument for him based on a pattern that was similar to Thunder
Gulch (Gulch) and Monarchos (Maria’s Mon).
The third-place finisher, Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) ran a remarkable race
and got a remarkable ride by Jeremy Rose. He weaved in between horses and every
time Rose sent him through a hole he got there before it closed. In deep
stretch he looked like a winner but veered to the dreaded inside at the
sixteenth pole and began to spin his wheels. Considering his debacle in the Rebel
S. (G3)
and redemption in the Arkansas Derby (G2), it was a terrific training job by
Tim Ritchie. All the rumors about his physical condition proved to be unfounded
but I didn’t like his pedigree either for 10 furlongs and was negative about
his chances.
The Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday attracted a record crowd of over 111,000 fans
and many of them may have learned a handicapping lesson that
could have been applied in the Derby the next day.
Sis City (Slew City Slew) was the 3-5 favorite based on huge wins in the
Davona Dale S. (G2) and Ashland S. (G1) in her last two starts. But blowout wins
raise questions about who they beat, can they run that well again and how
competitive they will be when challenged.
In the Ashland, Sis City took the lead on the first turn and tightened up on
SUMMERLY (Summer Squall), who had to take back some and was forced to chase. In
the Oaks, Jerry Bailey was back aboard and he employed the exact same tactics on
Sis City. The two betting choices gunned to the first turn and Bailey came over
ever so slightly on Edgar Prado aboard Sis City around the first turn.
It was not major traffic where Sis City had to be checked or taken up but
Prado definitely had to take his foot off the gas pedal momentarily and Bailey
had a clear lead down the backstretch. Prado swung Sis City to the outside and
took up the chase but you could see on the far turn that he was asking her to
run and she wasn’t in the cruise control that she was in during her last two
starts.
Sis City hooked Summerly at the top of the stretch and it looked like an epic
stretch duel was in store but suddenly Sis City began to stride awkwardly and
Bailey guided Summerly to a cagey two-length win. It was an exact duplicate of
Bailey’s ride aboard Peace Rules (Jules) in last year’s New Orleans H.
(G2) when he did the same thing to Prado aboard Saint Liam (Saint Ballado).
Horses that raced at the Fair Grounds had a terrific weekend. Besides
Summerly’s win in the Oaks, AMERICA ALIVE (American Chance) won the Woodford
Reserve Turf Classic (G1) for Neil Howard and Robby Albarado on Saturday. SHADOW
CAST (Smart Strike) was a handy winner in the Louisville Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) and Rush Bay (Cozzene) lost a photo in the Crown Royal
American Turf S. (G3) when making his turf debut.
BATTLE WON’s (Honour and Glory) easy 3 1/2-length win in the Churchill Downs H. (G2) over a
very deep field should answer any questions regarding how good SILENT WITNESS
(El Moxie) is. Winner of a record 17 straight turf sprint wins in Honk Kong, he
handled Battle Won with ease last December in a major turf sprint stakes at Sha
Tin.
This coming Sunday, Silent Witness’ winning streak is in major jeopardy as he
stretches out to a mile for the first time and has to face multiple Group 1
winner ATTRACTION (Efisio). If he can handle her and get the mile, his
sporting owner Archie DaSilva might bring him to Belmont this October for the
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).
BIAS REPORT
In one-turn races on the main track, only 13 of the 33 winners (39 percent) were
either first or second after a quarter of a mile was run. In two-turn races on
the main track, only three of the 11 winners (27 percent) were either first or second
after a quarter of a mile was run.
On Saturday, the inside paths on the main track seemed to be the deepest and
horses who raced down on it tired the most.
On the turf going two turns, only one of the seven (14 percent) winners were either
first or second after a quarter mile was run. There were two turf sprints run
and both winners were either first or second after a quarter mile was run.
HORSES TO WATCH
Tuesday (5/3)
2ND – ESCAPIST (Thunder Gulch) dropped down to maiden claimers for the
first time with blinkers added but wound up being wide behind a gate-to-wire
winner.
4TH – ESTEDAD (Favorite Trick) was bumped at the start, raced in traffic
before swinging nine wide at the top of the stretch and showed some stretch
kick.
9TH – CARMANDIA (Wild Rush) rallied wide behind dueling leaders to get
third in only her second start since September.
Wednesday (5/4)
2ND – ROUGH DRAFT (Notebook) chased a runaway winner going a mile in
a very fast time.
8TH – WAR TEMPO (Quiet American) was bumped at the start and then
forced to chase the pace while extremely wide against an impressive winner.
Thursday (5/5)
6TH – GRADES GOLD (Honor Grades) gunned to the front and pressed a very
fast pace while wide going a mile in stakes-quality time.
7TH – SINGIT (Sultry Song) rallied from far back to get third in a turf
sprint on a very firm turf course that carried speed well in the sprints.
9TH – HOT STORM (Stormy Atlantic) held on grimly when dueling for the
lead in a very rough trip.
Friday (5/6)
1ST – SEDUCTIVELY SMOOTH (Cape Canaveral) chased a very fast pace, took
over at the top of the stretch and then weakened in her well-bet career debut
for Steve Asmussen.
4TH – ELUSIVE JAZZ (Elusive Quality) weakened late after making a strong
middle move to the lead in his first start going a mile.
9TH – GUILLAUME TELL (Ire) (Rossini) is a one-dimensional turf horse that
rallied for third in a wide trip behind a relatively slow pace.
Saturday (5/7)
3RD – ELIJAH’S SONG (Unbridled’s Song) was a good third as the beaten
favorite despite being bumped at the start and running into traffic.
5TH – TRICKEY TREVOR (Demaloot Demashoot) set a blazing-fast pace while
stuck down on the inside before tiring.