CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
MAY 26, 2005
by Dick Powell
I know this is the Churchill Downs Notebook but a few words about the
Preakness S. (G1).
With AFLEET ALEX’s (Northern Afleet) stunning victory in the Preakness last
Saturday, you can expect much of the attention between now and the Belmont S.
(G1) on June 11 to focus on the “feel-good” aspects of the horse and his
connections. The heroics of the horse, the lemonade stand and the courageous
fight of his breeder should provide more than enough storylines for the
non-racing media.
However, despite the euphoria surrounding Alex’s win and the fantastic ride
that Jeremy Rose gave him to avoid catastrophe, one little detail is being left
out — Rose was taken off the horse two months ago!
After winning his seasonal debut in the Mountain Valley S. at Oaklawn Park,
the connections of Afleet Alex — owner Cash is King LLC and/or trainer Tim
Ritchey — decided that they needed a rider with experience in major races and
replaced Rose before the Rebel S. (G3) on March 19. John Velazquez picked up the
mount, made a commitment to ride him throughout the Triple Crown and Rose was
sent to the end of the bench.
Unlike John Servis last year, who resisted all attempts by agents of big-name
jockeys to replace Stewart Elliott aboard Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex’s
connections bailed on Rose. Luckily for all but Velazquez, Afleet Alex ran
dreadfully in the Rebel. It turned out that he had a lung infection for the
Rebel but Velazquez decided to abandon him and Rose was given the mount back for
the Arkansas Derby (G2).
But that’s not the end of the story. When Alex romped to an eight-length win
in the Arkansas Derby, Ritchey told a national TV audience that “we’ll see” in
response to a question on whether Rose would ride Alex in the Kentucky Derby
(G1). Clearly, if a big-name rider was available they would consider using him
instead of Rose. And this is minutes after Rose rode the horse to his best win
yet.
At this point, with all the major Derby prep races having been run, none of
the major jockeys were available and Rose wound up keeping the mount. The rest,
as they say, is history. But let’s make sure that history contains all the
relevant facts.
The inside paths of the main track continue to yield few winners at
Churchill. Coupled with a profile of most winners coming from off the pace (see
the Bias Report) and you have a winning pattern of deep closers rallying widest
of all. Riders of horses who take the lead appear to be consciously avoiding the
inside and keeping their mounts a few paths off the rail.
For now, we are giving extra points to those that have raced on the inside up
near the lead. Horses that have wide comments in their trouble lines are not
necessarily the victims of a bad trip but might be running on the best part of
the track.
There were 50 races run last week and 18 different riders won a race. More
amazing is the fact that 14 different riders won two or more races. It’s a very
busy jockey’s room and many are quite happy.
John McKee won seven races for the week and Mike Smith won six, despite not
being at Churchill on Friday and Saturday. Orlando Mojica won five races and all
paid at least double-digit prices.
Five Star Day (Carson City) was a very fast horse and is already turning out
some very fast horses in his first crop to race. On Saturday, the public made
FIFTY SEVEN FLAT (Five Star Day) the second choice at 5-2 in a 4 1/2-furlong
race for maiden special weights despite trainer Elliott Walden only winning 8
percent with his firsters.
Under John McKee, Fifty Seven Flat broke behind the speed and rallied four
wide at the top of the stretch. In these baby races you don’t mind losing ground
as long as you don’t have to take your foot off the gas pedal and McKee kept the
pressure on through the lane to an easy 2 1/4-length win. Ready’s Rocket (More
Than Ready) was able to clear the field from post nine and then wound up on the
dreaded inside part of the track and might bear watching after running fourth.
On Sunday, juvenile fillies were in action and MORE THAN PRETTY (More Than
Ready) pressed the pace from the outside and held on gamely for a neck score
over Golden Knolls (Seeking the Gold). The first foal out of a winning Forest
Wildcat mare, she was bred to win early top and bottom but showed some gameness
through the lane.
As with all early juveniles, they will have to go through another educational
process to continue their careers. Their first lesson was to get out of the gate
and go but now they will have to learn to carry their natural speed farther by
relaxing and conserving energy. But it can be done and all you have to do is
look at Afleet Alex, who won his career debut at Delaware Park on June 26 last
year but has learned to do his running when the rider asks, not just out of the
gate.
BIAS REPORT
In one-turn races on the main track, only nine of the 37 winners (24 percent)
were either first or second after a quarter-mile was run. In two-turn races on
the main track, two of the five winners (40 percent) were either first or second
after a quarter-mile was run.
On the turf going two turns, two of the six (33 percent) winners were either
first or second after a quarter-mile was run. In two turf sprints, neither
winner was either first or second after a quarter-mile was run.
| For the first 17 days of racing: |
| In one-turn races on the main track, 36 of the 117
winners (31 percent) were either first or second after a quarter-mile was run. |
| In two-turn races on the main track, seven of the 31
winners (23 percent) were either first or second after a quarter-mile was run. |
| In two-turn races on the turf, seven of the 26 winners
(27 percent) were either first or second after a quarter-mile was run. |
| In turf sprints, two of the four winners (50 percent)
were either first or second after a quarter-mile was run. |
HORSES TO WATCH
Wednesday (5/18)
3RD – SURPRISE CALL (Announce) went after the lead and dueled into the deep
stretch before being passed by a wide closer.
7TH – UPSHOT (Lasting Approval) gunned to the front and held on gamely for
second going six furlongs in a in fast time.
8TH – SABBATH DAY POINT (West by West) was used hard from post 1 in a long
sprint before packing it in. Watch for him in claimers next time out.
10TH – FOOLISH CAT (Just a Cat) just missed in an improved effort with first
time Lasix behind a very high-class winner.
Thursday (5/19)
5TH – PICK FIVE (Artax) dueled for the lead while down on the inside going a
mile in decent time.
6TH – MYTHICAL CONQUEST (Exploit) rallied nicely for third despite breaking
from post 10 in his second start off a layoff.
8TH – DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (Presidential Order) rallied widest of all to get
third after breaking poorly from post 1 and getting shuffled back.
9TH – FIFTH EDITION (Storm Cat) chased a very slow pace from post nine and
was outkicked to the wire.
Friday (5/20)
3RD – TORNADO WARNING (Belek) doesn’t usually run on the front end but she
opened up a clear lead before being caught in the deep stretch on a very tiring
track.
5TH – FORTH AND FOREVER (Favorite Trick) put away two challenges for the lead
before succumbing late.
7TH – SOPHETTE (Acceptable) chased a very fast pace while down on the inside
going a mile in her first start off the claim.
8TH – CHIPPEWA TRAIL (General Royal) was forced to chase a fast pace and
rally widest of all after stumbling at the start.
Saturday (5/21)
1ST – LIL MAN (Romanov [Ire]) rallied widest of all to get second behind a
gate-to-wire winner.
3RD – MR. MALAPROP (Distorted Humor) broke awkwardly and closed determinedly
to get second going a mile in good time.
4TH – AERIAL COMMAND (Runaway Groom) is a one-dimensional closer that was
squeezed at the start and rallied strong to just miss second.
5TH – ULTRA CHIC (Smokester) gunned to the front and was bumped around while
the winner circled the field.
Sunday (5/22)
2ND – BRITISH ATTITUDE (Broad Brush) gunned to the front and ran the first
quarter in :21.24 before giving it up in the deep stretch.
8TH – UNBRIDLED APPEAL (Unbridled) wound up chasing a very slow pace after
being bumped at the start.