HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 12, 2005
by Dick Powell
The center of the racing world this weekend will be in Chicago as Arlington
Park hosts its International Festival of Racing highlighted by the 23rd running
of the Arlington Million (G1) for older turfers going 10 furlongs. Also on the
program are the Beverly D. S. (G1) for fillies and mares going 1 3/16 miles and
the Secretariat S. (G1) for three-year-olds going 10 furlongs.
Last year’s Secretariat winner, KITTEN’S JOY (El Prado [Ire]), will be the
favorite for the Million. He won his last start at Churchill when he flew home
in the Firecracker Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) and at scale weights of 126 pounds,
he’ll be very tough in here. If successful, owner Ken Ramsay has outlined an ambitious schedule
after the Million, with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1)
and/or Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) and then the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) all being under
consideration. With his cruising speed, ability to accelerate quickly and run
his best race over any going, Kitten’s Joy will be the horse to beat on
Saturday.
Facing him will be the horse that won the Million last year but was
disqualified and placed fourth. POWERSCOURT (GB) (Sadler’s Wells) ran well in
Scotland in his last start, adds blinkers and, more importantly, Kieren Fallon
will be in the irons instead of Jamie Spencer who gave him some curious rides
last year. The bay horse showed that he loves the course and any time Aidan
O’Brien ships in from his Ireland base you have to take notice.
With the rain that hit Arlington on Thursday, trainer Graham Motion is now
leaning toward passing up the Sword Dancer Invitational H. (G1) at Saratoga and
shipping BETTER TALK NOW (Talkin Man) in for the Million. Motion has secured the
riding services of Johnny Velazquez, replacing Ramon Dominguez. With the
softened-up nature of Arlington’s turf course and Saratoga’s still being hard as
a rock, it looks like Motion will run Better Talk Now in the Million, giving the
event the top three finishers from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
Outside of the Big Three, GOOD REWARD (Storm Cat) is an improving colt for
Shug McGaughey who seems on the verge of joining the top turf horses in America.
He should benefit from the 10-furlong distance with Jerry Bailey in the irons.
California shippers SWEET RETURN (GB) (Elmaamul), FOURTY NINERS SON
(Distorted Humor) and WHILLY (Ire) (Sri Pekan) seem to be compromised by the
recent rains and unless the course suddenly firms up they seem to be at a major
disadvantage. Sweet Return’s trainer, Ron McAnally, has won this race three
times and the chestnut colt has some form over going less than firm.
In the Secretariat, ENGLISH CHANNEL (Smart Strike) goes for his fifth
straight turf victory for Todd Pletcher. Only purchased for $50,000 as a
yearling, the three-year-old sophomore dominated the lucrative $750,000 Virginia
Derby (G3) and is in line for a $3 million bonus if he can win the Secretariat
and Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s handled any turf condition and will be tough as
nails from the rail with Velazquez.
PURIM (Dynaformer) has a win over the course and just missed last out in a
thrilling finish to the American Derby (G2). He’ll be ridden by the red-hot Mark
Guidry and has more tactical speed than most Dynaformer turfers. Bobby Frankel
sends out Chattahoochee War (War Chant), who wound up on the lead last out when
nobody wanted it but would prefer to run covered up. Pat Valenzuela is back to
ride.
The Beverly D. has attracted a contentious international field of older
female turfers. Soft-turf specialist WONDER AGAIN (Silver Hawk) should get more
than enough give in the course and needs to be respected.
Aidan O’Brien ships in MONA LISA (GB) (Giant’s Causeway), who is a
three-year-old filly that was only beaten just over two lengths going this
distance in a Group 1 by Alexander Goldrun (Gold Away [Ire]), who is an
international turf star that has won Group 1 stakes in France, England, Ireland
and Hong Kong.
Godolphin sends out SUNDROP (Jpn) (Sunday Silence), who won a Group 3 event
in her first start this year and gets Lasix for the first time. She’s done her
best running on soft going, which she should get on Saturday. The rail and Mark
Guidry, who is winning at a 37 percent clip at Arlington, should help as well.
The American contingent is headed up by MELHOR AINDA (Pulpit), who had four
straight turf wins before running second to Japanese sensation Cesario (Jpn)
(Sunday Silence) in the American Invitational Oaks (G1). This is her first start
against older fillies and mares and based on how she handled Keeneland’s turf
course earlier this year she should be able to handle the expected soft going.
MEGAHERTZ (GB) (Pivotal) will be the sentimental, if not the pari-mutuel,
favorite in the Beverly D. She’s earned over $1.8 million and comes into this
race with three straight Grade 2 victories for Frankel, who also trains Melhor
Ainda. A tiny six-year-old mare with a flashy come-from-behind running style,
she’ll be coming on late and should benefit the most from the weight-for-age
conditions. The only real question is the soft going, which she did not handle
last year in the Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), but that was at a longer
distance and off a long layoff.
The NTRA has a Pick 4 on Saturday combining the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G2)
at Saratoga (4:15 p.m. ET); the Beverly D (4:35 p.m. ET), the Sword Dancer
Invitational at Saratoga (4:55 p.m. ET) and the Arlington Million (5:35 p.m.
ET). ABC TV will provide coverage from 4-6 p.m. ET. Check your local simulcast
site to see if the NTRA Pick 4 is available.
*****
I get accused of a lot of things but being prescient is usually not one of
them. However, if you read the Handicapper’s Insight of July 22, I questioned
the backgrounds and inexperience of two of the stewards at Del Mar and one of
the stewards at Saratoga. With all the controversial calls and non-calls at both
tracks, you read it here first about why this might be an issue and how only
racing seems to be willing to put inexperienced people in charge of officiating
the game at the highest levels.
*****
Saratoga’s turf courses are baked as hard as they can be with the recent
drought. The last rain the area had was the night of August 3 and even though
the courses are watered after the races the hot sun dries them up real fast.
Inside speed on the inner turf course has been very tough to beat lately and
until the early pace gets faster these horses will continue to have a big
advantage.