HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 5, 2005
by Dick Powell
Pat Day retired on Thursday with 8,803 career victories and a record
$297,912,019 in career earnings. I don’t know what it was about Pat, but we
never seemed to click. When I picked him he lost and when I went against him he
usually beat me. And despite being New York-centric, I was not one of his
critics for his rides on Easy Goer. I picked Sunday Silence to win both the
Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in 1989 because I thought
he was the better horse and gave his rider more options.
Day was always an enigma for me, but there’s no denying his greatness. There
was nobody better than nursing a horse on the lead and rationing out his energy.
Unlike many of his brethren, Day used his legs better than anyone I have ever
seen. When he squeezed, his mounts replied and propelled forward. Yeah,
sometimes he got too cute in the stretch and lost photos by being too patient,
but Day won far more of those races than he lost.
Race riding is one of the most unusual occupations. Those that have the gift
can’t even get rid of it if they try. Pat Day himself had his own demons of
alcohol and substance abuse. He conquered it and went on to a Hall of Fame
career.
Pat Valenzuela, on the other hand, has done almost everything he can to
destroy his own career and yet he’s back dominating Southern California racing
again. Through Wednesday, Valenzuela is the leading rider at Del Mar. Neither
demons nor injuries can stop him. This is a guy who was living in the backseat
of a car a few years ago and had a long suspension handed to him last year for
refusing to take a drug test after shaving his entire body. Yet, he’s back on
top.
As good as Pat Day looked on the back of the horse, Valenzuela looks like the
complete opposite with his back arched and weight back in the saddle. Yet, when
the starting gate is sprung, nobody breaks his horses better. His horses break
better than anyone so he can either try to dominate the race up in the front or
settle some and gain early position due to his alert getaway. Long or short,
Valenzuela usually has his horses involved in the game early.
Mark Guidry is another one. He had a fantastic Churchill Downs spring/summer
meet winning an amazing 25 percent with his mounts. After Churchill closed in
July, he moved his tack to Arlington Park and set up shop after giving everyone
else a head start. With over 83 mounts, Guidry already has 30 wins and a gaudy
36 percent win rate.
*****
The added depth to the cushion on the main track at Saratoga has resulted in
slower running times – about a full second. The new turf course at Del Mar has
yielded very fast running times, at least a full second. Saratoga dirt slow; Del
Mar turf fast. Pretty easy to follow.
*****
The center of the racing world will be at Monmouth Park on Sunday when the
Jersey track hosts the $1 million Haskell Invitational (G1). With the Jim Dandy
(G2) not really providing the Travers S. (G1) with too many stars for August 27,
it’s up to the Haskell to come through and try to rescue a three-year-old
division that seems to have fallen apart.
Bob Baffert will send out Dwyer S. (G2) winner ROMAN RULER (Fusaichi Pegasus)
going nine furlongs. His main competition will be from SUN KING (Charismatic),
winner of the Leonard Richards S. (G3) for Nick Zito.
*****
On Saturday, Saratoga will host two Grade 1 stakes with the Test S. and
Whitney H. The Test attracted a field of 10 with eight betting interests. SENSE
OF STYLE (Thunder Gulch) looked great here last year winning two races,
including the Spinaway S. (G2). She’s come back this year with two modest
efforts but should be able to regain her form on her favorite track and distance
for Edgar Prado and Pat Biancone.
In the Whitney, COMMENTATOR (Distorted Humor) tries two turns for only the
second time. He draws well, is favorably weighted and should be razor sharp
after a near track-record performance last out going seven furlongs. Competition
should come from Saint Liam (Saint Ballado) and Limehouse (Grand Slam).
At Del Mar, we have juvenile fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track
in the Sorrento S. (G3) Saturday, and Sunday’s feature is the Clement L. Hirsch
H. (G2), a turf event for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Both looked like
evenly-matched races and should be very competitive.
*****
After years and years of complaining, NYRA will write its first turf sprint
race here on Friday in the 6TH race. Advocated by everyone, including me when I
worked for NYRA from 1992 to 1996, there was some sort of institutional aversion
to carding them both here and downstate.
The best reason for turf sprinting is if the race is switched to the main
track, you should still have a race since there will be far fewer scratches. At
many circuits around the country, turf sprints usually go to horses coming from
off the pace.
*****
Favorites are winning at a 36 percent clip at Saratoga. Slightly above
average, but better than the first few days here when chalk dominated.