HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 1, 2005
It’s about time!
by Dick Powell
After a long drought, major league racing returns to North America and Europe
runs its biggest race this coming weekend . With four weekends to go before the
22nd running of the Breeders’ Cup, Belmont will run five Grade 1 stakes this
weekend, Oak Tree at Santa Anita has its first weekend and major races are being
run around the country. And the NTRA will have another national Pick 4 wager
with a guaranteed pool of $400,000 while Belmont will have a Pick 4 on their
last four Grade 1 stakes with a guaranteed pool of $500,000. Let’s take a look
at what’s on tap.
Belmont kicks off its Grade 1 festivities in the 6TH race. The Vosburgh (G1)
is a six furlong sprint and has attracted a field of 10. Three major contenders
ship in from California headed up by WOKE UP DREAMIN (Holy Bull) who has won his
last two graded stakes starts for Bob Baffert including a win over the track at
Saturday’s distance when he won the True North (G2) here in 1:08 1/5. Baffert
intentionally kept him out of the major sprints at Del Mar and Saratoga in order
to have a fresh horse for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
His fellow California sprinters that have made the trip East are UNFURL THE
FLAG (Bertrando), who won the Triple Bend H. (G1) two starts back in very fast
time and TASTE OF PARADISE (Conquistador Cielo), who will need a fast pace up
front to set up his closing kick.
The local contingent is headed up by POMEROY (Boundary), winner of the Alfred
G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) in his last start when he ran the fastest six furlong time
of the entire Saratoga meet. He’s done his best running at Saturday’s distance
and is training up a storm at the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga which is
at least two full seconds slower this time of year.
On paper, there’s a lot of speed. That usually means one of two things will
be sure to happen. First, the fastest of the speed horses will make the lead,
the other speed horses will get discouraged without the lead and the front
runner will hang on; or second, the fast pace will compromise the chances of all
the speed horses and set it up for a closer.
Belmont’s Fall Meet has been playing very slow so far and with sunny, dry
weather predicted for the weekend, it will be interesting to see how the main
track plays. Historically, main tracks on big days at Belmont usually turn out
to be speed-favoring but don’t go into the day’s races with that attitude. Watch
the early races and then make your judgments.
The Beldame (G1) will be run for the 67th time as race seven and this is one
of the deepest renewals ever. Six of the seven fillies and mares are Grade 1
stakes winners including the great ASHADO (Saint Ballado) who has won six Grade
1s, $3,261,440 and is last year’s champion 3yo filly. She threw in a clinker
last out in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga but she loves Belmont with
three wins in five starts. She has three nice breezes since her last race and
draws outside where Johnny Velazquez can get her to relax better for the long
run down the backside.
Allen Jerkens earned his nickname of the “Giant Killer” by knocking off heavy
favorites in big races and he’ll try to do it again with SOCIETY SELECTION
(Coronado’s Quest). She beat Ashado last year in the Alabama (G1) on a wet track
and is training very much like she did two years ago when she won Frizette (G1)
here over Ashado.
SWEET SYMPHONY (A.P. Indy) is an undefeated winner of the Alabama (G1) by a
Belmont (G1) winner out of a half sister to HOLY BULL (Great Above) who won the
Futurity (G1), Metropolitan H. (G1) and Woodward (G1) here. The only 3yo filly
in the race, she spots her rivals experience and seasoning but not talent. The
Bill Mott-trainee won her first two starts of her career here and should still
be improving.
Bill Mott sends out another undefeated star in race eight, the Joe Hirsch
Turf Classic Invitational H. (G1) going a mile and a half on the Widener Turf
Course. SHAKESPEARE (Theatrical [Ire]) won his last start, the Belmont Breeders’
Cup H. (G2), in course-record time without taking a deep breath.
Jerry Bailey was incredulous after the race.
“I really like him,” the jockey said. “He was well meant and well thought of
from the very first day he ran. He hasn’t disappointed since. I know he’s had
problems, but Bill (Mott) has done a great job with him. His record speaks for
itself. He really gives me the chills.”
Mott won the Turf Classic with SHAKESPEARE’s daddy THEATRICAL (Nureyev) and
his ability to sit off the pace and rally like he did last out makes him a major
threat as the distances get longer.
Earlier in the summer, ENGLISH CHANNEL (Smart Strike) was the rage of the
sophomore turf division. He was beaten in the Secretariat S. (G1) last out and
has dropped off the radar screen. He’s never been 12 furlongs but his broodmare
sire is Theatrical so the pedigree is strong. There’s not a lot of pace in the
field and Johnny Velazquez will be very tempted to try to steal the race on the
front end.
Aidan O’Brien ships in ACE (Danehill) from his Irish base and he will be a
major danger in here. Winless in six starts this year at four, he’s been against
some of the best 10-furlong horses in Europe and should get the extra quarter of
a mile here on turf that should be much firmer than he is used to. First time
Lasix and Pat Valenzuela will only help.
O’Brien is brilliant at shipping the right horse to the right spot and
showing up ready to go. Ace is a full sister to DANISH (Danehill) who shipped to
North America and won the QEII Challenge Cup (G1) in her first start over here.
The fourth major stakes on Saturday at Belmont is the $1 million Jockey Club
Gold Cup (G1) run at 10 furlongs on the main track. The race will start midway
around the clubhouse turn and post position and pace will be critical. The
horses come out of the dogleg left and then straighten out for the long run down
the backstretch. The outside horses run the risk of getting stuck wide the whole
trip and the inside horses run the risk of getting shuffled far back down on the
rail.
That said, the presence of rabbit BISHOP COURT HILL (Holy Bull) should
stretch the field out and ensure that there won’t be a bulky pack of horses
chasing a slow pace. Todd Pletcher wants Travers (G1) winner FLOWER ALLEY
(Distorted Humor) to settle early and stalk and is afraid that LAVA MAN (Slew
City Slew) or SUN KING (Charismatic) might have an advantage up front. Thus the
presence of the rabbitt who will be ridden by Chantal Sutherland.
Lava Man was vanned off in his last start, a third-place finish in the
Pacific Classic (G1) but don’t get turned off by his inability to walk back to
the barn. It was truly precautionary said his trainer Doug O’Neill.
“He tried to hold on and he just got rubber-legged,” O’Neill said. “By the
time we got to him, he had already caught his breath. The horse ambulance was
right there, so he just took a ride. The state vet said if they all looked like
he did after a race, he’d be out of a job.”
Lava Man has a win going 10 furlongs in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) in fast
time but only has two workouts at Hollywood Park since his race at Del Mar. He
is not nominated for the Breeders’ Cup and will need a $360,000 supplement in
order to run in the Classic (G1). Ordinarily I would like this type of horse
here since his training would be geared towards this race instead of the Classic
down the road. But, he’s tough to figure out with the sporadic workout pattern
and I’ll take a pass.
BORREGO (El Prado [Ire]) has been threatening to win a big race throughout
his career and it finally came together last out in the Pacific Classic when a
very fast pace worked to his advantage and he won going away. He might benefit
more from the rabbit than Flower Alley.
Flower Alley tries older rivals for the first time off two sharp wins at
Saratoga. He’s prospered since adding blinkers four starts back and is training
beautifully for Todd Pletcher who could be looking at a huge day. He gets away
from the gate in good order and has learned to conserve his speed and await
Velazquez’s orders.
Sun King is what is left of Nick Zito’s sophomore crop, but he’s been on a
roll lately with two wins and a second against graded stakes company. His win
from post 14 in the Pennsylvania Derby was very impressive and comes in off a
sensational workout at Saratoga for Nick Zito. Rafael Bejarano returns in the
irons, but he’ll have to step it up a notch to compete with these.
IMPERIALISM (Langfuhr) intrigues me off a win in the seven furlong Pat
O’Brien H. (G2) last out. He’s trained well since then and looks like he’ll sit
off a fast pace and make one, big run.
The final Grade 1 of the day might be the toughest handicapping exercise –
the Flower Bowl H. (G1) for fillies and mares going 10 furlongs on the inner
turf course. There’s speed, stalkers, closers, home field horses and shippers.
Bobby Frankel sends out MELHOR AINDA (Pulpit) off a rough-trip third in the
Beverly D. S. (G1) last out at Arlington Park on yielding turf. She’s trained
well since then and her stretch kick is devastating. But, it’s her first start
against accomplished older rivals at a distance that she has yet to win at.
WONDER AGAIN (Dynaformer) likes Belmont and likes soft turf which she probably
won’t get. She was flying in the Beverly D. down the middle of the track and
should get a covered-up trip from post 3 with Edgar Prado.
LUNE D’OR (Green Tune) might be the best of the Euro shippers. She’s winless
in three starts this year but has competed well against some of the best. She
won a Group 1 last year at today’s distance, drops nine pounds from her last
start and gets first-time Lasix. An inside post and tactical speed should enable
her to work out a good trip. SUNDROP (Jpn) (Sunday Silence) made her American
debut in the Beverly D. last out and had no chance when bottled up in traffic.
Only beaten by three lengths, she showed she can compete with our best female
turfers and has done her best running on firm turf.
RISKAVERSE (Dynaformer) won this race last year but hasn’t won since. Still,
to ignore her will be a big mistake and she loves this turf course. SAND SPRINGS
(Dynaformer) has dangerous tactical speed and should take full advantage of the
inside of the inner turf course not being used recently. She’s talented enough
to steal the race but has to tote 123 pounds.
In the NYRA Pick 4, we’ll spread out pretty good:
| Race 7: Beldame: 1, 7 |
| Race 8: Turf Classic: 1A, 7 |
| Race 9: Gold Cup: 1A, 6 |
| Race 10: Flower Bowl: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9
|
Can’t wait for next week to analyze all these races, the rest from North
America, and the Arc from Longchamp as we are finally headed full steam to this
year’s Breeders’ Cup. Also, I have upgraded to a big screen TV with high
definition and look forward to Saturday’s races on ESPN being broadcast in high
def. See you next week.