HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 28, 2005
Breeders’ Cup Selections and Analysis
by Dick Powell
JUVENILE FILLY:
#5 KNIGHTS TEMPLAR; #1 Folklore; #9 Ex Caelis.
It might be a mistake to assume that the NY-based fillies are better than
everyone else. Adieu (El Corredor) comes off a grueling race and might be going
the wrong way so we’ll leave her out. Knight’s Templar (Exploit) romped in
Canada last out in fast time when making her debut at today’s distance. She has
tactical speed and is training well. Folklore (Tiznow) might benefit from the
added time from her last race and the fact that D. Wayne Lukas took her back to
Churchill and avoided all the bad weather in New York. Ex Caelis (Fusaichi Pegasus)
was up against a severe bias last out at Keeneland.
JUVENILE:
#9 FIRST SAMURAI; #14 Dr. Pleasure; #7 Stream Cat.
Thought that First Samurai (Giant’s Causeway) hated the track in his last start
and yet he still won. Yes, the pace scenario fell into his lap, but he draws
favorably and gets first-time Lasix indicating that he bled in his last start. Dr.
Pleasure (Thunder Gulch) romped in his career debut and then came back with a second
going shorter. He’s bred to stretch out in distance but drew the far outside
post. Stream Cat
(Black Minnaloushe) is a versatile colt who seems to be able to run over any
kind of surface and could get into the exotics at a price.
FILLY AND MARE TURF:
#11 MONA LISA; #2 Film Maker; #7 Wonder Again.
Other than a horrible post and a 1-for-14 record, I really like Mona
Lisa (GB) (Giant’s Causeway). She raced against the best in Europe before coming to
Arlington for the Beverly D. S. (G1) where she never had an inch of running room.
Aidan O’Brien took her back to Ireland and threw her into the Irish Champion
S. (Ire-G1), which attracted the best field of the year going 10 furlongs. Back
in against females last out at Longchamp, she beat the great Alexander Goldrun
(Gold Away [Ire]), who would be favored in here. Mona Lisa has shown that she can handle soft
turf and gets Kieren Fallon. Film Maker (Dynaformer) ran well in this race last
year and Graham Motion is a master of having them ready for their best efforts
when the big money is on the line. She drew inside and her only negative might
be traffic in a slow-paced race. Wonder Again (Dynaformer) is as game and
courageous as they come and gets the right course condition for her closing
tactics.
SPRINT:
#7 LOST IN THE FOG; #3 Silver Train; #5 Lion Tamer.
Lost in the Fog (Lost Soldier) takes on older sprinters but
doesn’t meet much. He’s shipped cross-country regularly and drew well here with
Russell Baze. If anyone is going to soften him up it will be around the turn.
The decision that Baze has to make is what to do if Solis sends Lifestyle (Indian
Charlie). Silver Train (Old Trieste) romped in his last start going a mile in
a fast time over a dull Belmont track and has trained well since then for Dutrow/Prado. Lion Tamer (Will’s Way) is a one-dimensional closer that ran well
in the Vosburgh (G1) last out but needs the race to set up for him.
MILE:
#10 VALIXIR; #11 Leroidesanimeaux; #5 Ad Valorem
At one point I thought I might get a price on Valixir (Ire) (Trempolino), but he could
become Saturday’s “wise guy” horse. Last year at three, he showed he can handle
soft turf when he beat Bago (Fr) (Nashwan) in the 12-furlong Prix Niel (Fr-G2) before Bago went on to win the
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). He came back this year in mile races and
dominated the Queen Anne S. (Eng-G1) against a fantastic field. His last start
at Longhchamp was troubling, but the final time of 1:36 for the mile
indicates the turf was firmer than usual. Andre Fabre is one of the world’s
great trainers and this colt’s ability to run over any surface and distance
should help him greatly here. Leroidesanimeaux (Brz) (Candy Stripes) has won eight in
a row since coming from Brazil and showed a new dimension last out when he
handled yielding turf at Woodbine. He draws outside where Johnny Velazquez can
keep him off other horses in the run down the backside and get him to relax. Ad Valorem (Danzig) was a top juvenile last year then began this year with a second
behind Shamardal (Giant’s Causeway) while beating Oratorio (Ire) (Danehill). He was
third two starts back then ran evenly at Keeneland last out off a long layoff.
O’Brien switches to stable rider Fallon and the colt looks like he’s sitting on a big
race at a long price.
DISTAFF:
#8 ISLAND FASHION; #2 Stellar Jayne; #3 Ashado.
If you throw out her starts against males and on the turf, Island Fashion (Petionville) begins to look a lot better. She ran well in this race last year
from post 10 going two turns and today’s outside post should not hurt with the
five-furlong run down the backside. Her last start at Santa Anita was good and
she gets Bejarano, who is riding in great form. Stellar Jayne (Wild Rush) looks
to be the lone speed in here if Dettori goes to the front from her inside post.
She loves this track and is fresh with only two starts this year and is training
brilliantly. Only negative is that Dettori gets aboard her for the first time.
TURF:
#2 SHIROCCO; #6 Ace; #3 Bago.
A soft turf course should benefit the Europeans, and if you want a European to
go 12 furlongs, then Fabre is your man. Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun) is a soft turf
course specialist who ran well in the Arc at the distance and should get a
covered-up trip with Christophe Soumillon. Ace (Ire) (Danehill) shipped here and was beaten less than a length
in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S. (G1) when Valenzuela had him first over and not
covered up. Switch to Fallon should help and O’Brien excels in this race. Bago won the Arc last year and was third this year in his first start off a
layoff. He was beaten by Azamour (Ire) (Night Shift) twice on much firmer ground, but
he should love it here.
CLASSIC:
#8 SUAVE; #11 Borrego; #1 Rock Hard Ten.
With two contenders having foot problems and the post position draw hurting
some, Suave (A.P. Indy) should be able to fill the bill. He stumbled at the
start in his last two starts but was a game winner at Saratoga in good time two
starts back and should be hanging around a long time at long odds. Borrego
(El Prado [Ire]) was the beneficiary of pace scenarios in his last two starts that might
not happen today. If he runs back to his last win here he’ll be tough, but that’s
asking a lot at reduced odds. Rock Hard Ten (Kris S.) is the most talented of
this bunch, but a foot problem and post 1 might keep him from running in
relaxed fashion. He’ll have to break well on the turn to keep from getting shuffled back
and then the trick will be to get him to settle with horses all around
him.