KEENELAND DAILY NOTEBOOK
OPENING DAY PREVIEW, OCTOBER 6,
2005
by Brian P. Turner
It was on October 15, 1936, that Keeneland Race Course first opened its gates
to the hungry Thoroughbred racing fans of central Kentucky for a nine-day meet.
The old Kentucky Association Racetrack in Lexington, which at the time of its
closing was the oldest continuously operating racetrack in North America, shut
its doors forever in 1933. Afterward, a group of some of the city’s most
prominent horsemen and businessmen decided to band together in an effort to
return racing to the area because they felt it just wasn’t right for there to be
no racetrack in the heart of Thoroughbred country.
From the outset, Keeneland was a unique venture in racing as it was the brain
child of renowned horseman J. O. “Jack” Keene who began work on the track in
1916, envisioning a gathering place for himself and his friends to meet and race
their horses for the simple enjoyment of the sport.
Keene spared no expense in his grand venture as he was determined to create a
European style “race course” on the outskirts of Lexington among the horse farms
for which the region was famous. He hired stonecutters to individually cut and
fit each piece of stone into place that would adorn the structure, modeling the
appearance on the race courses he had seen on his travels through Europe. The
magnitude of the enterprise eventually depleted Keene’s resources, but it was at
this time that the aforementioned group of Lexington horsemen and businessmen
stepped in and raised the money to purchase the property from Keene. They shared
Keene’s vision of a track that put the racing above all else so from the outset,
Keeneland was set up as a non-profit organization to ensure that business
decisions never outweighed the racing. To this day, Keeneland’s profits go into
the maintenance of the track itself, the purses, to charity and back into the
city of Lexington.
A total of 25,337 people attended the first nine-day Fall Meet in 1936 and
now, 69 years later, Keeneland often exceeds that number in a single day.
On Friday, Keeneland will open its gates for a 17-day Fall Meet. Over the
course of three weeks, the venerable Kentucky track will offer 19 stakes races
and more than $10.5 million in total purses. The festivities kick off with the
FallStars Weekend, which will see eight graded stakes races contested over the
first three days of the meet, all with possible implications for the Breeders’
Cup on October 29 at Belmont Park.
Saturday will be the richest day of the meet with two Grade 1 events, the
$600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile and the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity.
There will be two other Grade 1s offered — Sunday’s $500,000 Spinster
S. and the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on October 15.
For true horseplayers, Keeneland is a dream come true as the track has one of
the lowest take-out rates in the country. The take-out for win, place, and show
wagers is only 16 percent and 17 percent for Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. All other
exotics Keeneland offers have a take-out of only 19 percent.
To gauge what the horseplayer can expect for the upcoming meet, it becomes
necessary to look at the past. Keeneland has always been perceived as being a
heavily speed biased surface in sprint races. This trend changed slightly in the
spring as horses on or near the lead did not hold quite the advantage they did
in years past. In six-furlong races, horses on or near the lead won 58 percent
of the time and captured 62 percent of the seven furlong races. The biggest bias
came in the 6 1/2-furlong races where horses on or near the pace won 70 percent
of the time.
The main track routes seemed to play pretty fair in the spring as there was
very little difference in the win percentages of horses on or near the pace and
horses coming from off the pace. As for the turf, horses coming from off the
pace always seem to hold a solid advantage.
With all the stakes action around the country and the preparations for the
Breeders’ Cup at hand, it is a bit difficult to get a handle on which of the top
jockeys we can expect to see at Keeneland on a regular basis. Gary Stevens and
Mike Smith are both Hall of Famers who have relocated to Kentucky and they will
undoubtedly be factors throughout the meet. Rafael Bejarano finished second in
the standings during the Spring Meet and won the riding title last October. He
is one of the up-and-coming jockeys in the country and is a solid threat to win
the riding title. Robby Albarado should be a staple of the fall meet. He is
always dangerous at Keeneland and consistently around the top of the standings.
James Graham is a young jockey to keep an eye on at the meet as he finished
fourth in the rider standings during the spring against the upper echelon of
jockeys in the country. Graham won with 12 of his 84 mounts for a 14 percent win
percentage and an average win payoff of $22.20.
As for the trainers, with all of the stakes action over the three week meet,
the best will be shipping in from coast to coast. Todd Pletcher took the
training title in the Spring Meet, winning with 39 percent of his starters. His
runners will undoubtedly have an impact this fall as well. Nick Zito finished
second in the trainer standings in April, winning at 29 percent with his horses
producing an average win payoff of $10.30. The previous Fall Meet, Zito finished
in a tie with Steve Asmussen for the top spot but won at a phenomenal 41 percent
rate.
Asmussen is another threat at Keeneland. Though he won only 10 percent of his
starts in the spring, it would be wise to expect a much more solid performance
from him this fall as Asmussen generally tends to have his horses ready to roll
for Keeneland.
Keep an eye on Rebecca Maker as she always manages to get a few runners into
the winner’s circle from a limited number of starters. At the previous Fall
Meet, she sent out nine runners, three of which make had their picture taken and
they produced an average win payoff of $30.
Opening Day Outlook – Friday, October 7
A pair of graded stakes races are on tap for the opening day of the meet,
kicking off in the 7TH race with a field of eight in the Sycamore Breeders’ Cup
S. (G3) for three-year-olds and up going 12 furlongs on the lawn. The Bobby
Frankel-trained VANGELIS (Highest Honor [Fr]) could prove to be tough to handle in
this field as he is taking a bit of a drop from Grade 1 competition where he has
been putting in some solid efforts. ROCHESTER (Green Dancer) is another in the
field who stands a solid chance. The bay finished only two lengths behind
Vangelis two starts back in the Sword Dancer Invitational S. (G1) at Saratoga
and holds a lifetime record of 9-3-2-2 over the Keeneland turf course.
The other stakes event on the day comes in the 9TH as a field of 11
two-year-old fillies has been entered for the Alcibiades S. (G2). EX
CAELIS (Fusaichi Pegasus) is coming off of a nice effort in the
Arlington-Washington Breeders’ Cup Lassie S. (G3) where she was bumped soundly
at the start of the race but recovered well enough to pick up the place.
PERFORMING DIVA (Storm Cat) is an interesting possibility as she is a full
sister to Grade 2 winner Vision and Verse, who is best remembered for finishing
second in both the Belmont S. (G1) and the Travers S. (G1). Trainer Bill Mott is
not particularly well known for throwing two-year-olds into stakes competition,
so he may feel that Performing Diva is something special.
The opening day forecast calls for showers with highs in the low 60s.
Friday’s Best Plays
5TH – GRAND TRAVERSE (Pioneering) appears to be a stand out in this maiden
special event. The two-year-old colt is coming off of a second place effort in
his career debut where he rallied from off the pace to finish second, posting a
solid 97 BRIS Speed rating in the process. The bay also tops the field in BRIS
Prime Power where he holds an advantage of more than four points. Trainer Dallas
Stewart is a solid 14 percent in the “2nd Career Race” trainer category and wins
15 percent of the maiden special weight races he has runners in. Stevens has
been enlisted for the ride, only adding to the list of things to like.
10TH – ASI SIEMPRE (El Prado [Ire]) put in a nice effort in her North
American debut as she rallied from off the pace to finish second in the Garden
City Breeders’ Cup S. (G1) at Belmont. The three-year-old filly will be taking a
huge class drop today as she drops into non-winners of two “other than”
allowance company, a level she should easily handle. The gray’s lone BRIS Speed
rating towers over this field and she holds a BRIS Prime Power advantage of 25
points. Trainer Patrick Biancone wins 15 percent of his turf starts and Stevens,
a solid 20 percent turf rider, has been enlisted for this mount as well. Though
she won’t be lighting up the tote boards with her payoff, Asi Siempre should
serve as a solid key horse for those looking to play the Pick 4 or the late Pick
3.