Winning at Keeneland

WINNING AT KEENELAND

OCTOBER 6, 2005

by Richard Nilsen

Attending the races at Keeneland can be more than just a great social gathering and a fun

time. You can win playing the horses at Keeneland and do so consistently. Here

are a few professional tips to help make this your most profitable Keeneland

meeting ever.

Is there a Track Bias?

Pay attention to the first couple of races each day to determine if any bias is

at play. On many days the track will play fair but, if you can "catch" a bias

early, the rest of your day could prove very lucrative. On a day when the track

is favoring speed, you'll see the early pace horses hanging on well and closers

having a difficult time making up any ground.

Look to take advantage of the 1 1/16-mile races. The starting gate for this

commonly run distance is close to the first turn and the stretch run is short,

making it conducive to speed horses breaking from inside posts.

Keep in mind that when it rains, the track has a tendency to be speed

favoring.

Turf Lovers' Galore

If you understand the predominant turf bias here and are familiar with the barns

that point to this meet, then Keeneland turf racing can be a prime reason to

play on a daily basis.

Keeneland's grass course is one of only a few sand-based turf courses in

the United States, and it consistently benefits closers. One must be an exceptional

horse to wire a turf field here. Most front runners start to peter out at the

eighth-pole as the winner is often seen making a sweeping, strong rally on the

outside.

According to TSN's 2005 Track Stats book for Kentucky (available online

through the Tsnhorse.com online bookstore), 13 percent of all turf routes last

year were won in front-running fashion. The year before, only 4 percent were won

wire to wire. It is wise to favor proven turf horses with a strong late run,

preferably breaking from an inside post.

Low Takeout

Kentucky racing offers one of the best takeout structures in the country. What

does that mean? More money returned to the bettors. Straight wagers (win, place,

show) are "taxed" at only 16 percent, meaning 84 percent of the handle is

returned to the betting public. All exotic wagers have a low 19-percent takeout,

well below the national average. That equates to generous payouts. Check out the

average payoffs the last two years for both trifectas and Pick 3s.

Wager :		2003 avg		2004 avg
Trifecta:		$337		$249
Pick 3:		$346		$259

Looking to hit a nice score? Allot some of your daily wagering budget to

taking a swing at the trifecta or Pick 3.

When tackling the trifecta, find a race on the card where the favorite

appears vulnerable. Maybe he's a closer racing against a potential stiff speed

bias. Or, his jockey is 0 for 20 at the meet. The same race may be a good choice

as part of a Pick 3 sequence. If you are correct and beat the favorite, your

chance at a lucrative payoff will have increased exponentially!

Superior Information

It's difficult to win consistently at the races with the same information that

everyone else is using. That's where sites such as Brisnet.com come in. With

reports such as the Ultimate Past Performances, Brisnet gives users access to

Pace Ratings to determine who will get the early lead. Current Track Bias data

is also provided, letting you know just what types of runners are winning at

each distance and surface.

Jockeys and Streaks
At meets such as Keeneland, the high-profile riders win most of the races.

At last year's Fall Meet, for instance, Rafael Bejarano and the recently retired

Pat Day accounted for 46 winners, in aggregate. That's about three on each card.

The first few days usually set the tone for the remainder of the meet. Stay

away from jockeys who start off cold. They rarely recover and will burn a lot of

money. The "bigger" the name, the more important it is to take notice.

Quinellas

Deciding the right horse or horses to bet on at Keeneland is only solving half

the equation. The other critical element is how to wager on the race. That often

requires finding the proper bet.

There are two wagers offered at Keeneland that are misunderstood and many

times overlooked by the public. The first is the quinella. The concept behind

this strangely named wager is picking the top two finishers in either order.

Sound familiar? It's simply a boxed exacta, and best of all, it's offered at

half the cost. However, that's only a fraction of the good news.

Because the quinella is overlooked and misunderstood, the payoffs can be very

generous, especially when compared to the exacta. On average the quinella should

pay half what the exacta pays, but this is most often not the case. The quinella

usually pays more and, many times, significantly more than the $1 exacta in the

same race.

Here's just a few examples, based on $2 payoffs, from the 2005 Spring meet.*

Exacta		Quinella
$15.20		$10.60
$9.60		$7.20
$100.80		$66.40
$404.20		$279.20
$33.80		$22.80
$138.80		$81.20

* accessed from the Brisnet.com Archive Result Charts

These examples were just from the first two days of the 2005 Spring meet!

Occasionally, the exacta will pay better but, odds are, the quinella will

outperform it on a consistent basis.

Dime Super

The other value play at Keeneland is found in the 10-cent superfecta. Keeneland

lowered the superfecta minimum, formerly a $1 base wager, last spring to allow

bettors to play it for $.10 per combination. The reason was two fold --

taxes and allowing the smaller bettor to afford the wager. Let me explain.

Since the wager is based on a dime increment, rather than one dollar, it is

less likely to result in you having to pay income tax at the time the ticket is

cashed. The fractional nature of the 10-cent superfecta means that players are

less likely to reach the threshold level set by the IRS.

To properly play the superfecta, one has to cover many combinations. If

you've ever played the trifecta, you know how hard it can be to correctly pick

the top three finishers. Try picking the top four! Whereas there are 720

different trifecta combinations in a typical 10-horse race, there are 5,040

different superfecta combinations. Now that you can play the wager for 10-cent

increments, it becomes much more affordable to go after the "super."

If you can beat the favorite in a superfecta, the payoffs can be huge even

for a dime increment. Successfully keying the favorite on top can also be

lucrative as long as a couple of longshots come in underneath. Also, the larger

the field and the more contentious the race, the higher the likelihood of a good

payout.

Superfecta Strategies

Presented below are some different ways of playing dime superfecta partwheels,

based on a 10-horse field size:

1 with 2-3-4 with ALL with ALL = $16.80

1 with 2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with ALL = $4.20

Key 1 over 5 horses = $6

Key 1 over 6 horses = $12

You can key one horse, along with four other contenders, in each of the four

superfecta positions for a minimal investment:

1 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 = $2.40

2-3-4-5 with 1 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 = $2.40

2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 1 with 2-3-4-5 = $2.40

2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 1 = $2.40

Find the right race and get creative with the 10-cent superfecta, and you may

just end up bragging to your friends how you cashed several hundred dollars for

a dime wager!

Best of luck.

***Rich Nilsen is a four-time Las Vegas qualifier and Marketing

Director for Brisnet.com, which offers a complete line of superior handicapping

products for all tracks including Keeneland. He won the $10,000 Grand Prize in

the 2001 Keeneland Handicapping Contest.

Click on the links to read Nilsen's articles:

Part 1 -

Part 2