WINNING AT KEENELAND
OCTOBER 6, 2005
by Richard Nilsen
Attending the races at Keeneland can be more than just a great social gathering and a fun
time. You can win playing the horses at Keeneland and do so consistently. Here
are a few professional tips to help make this your most profitable Keeneland
meeting ever.
Is there a Track Bias?
Pay attention to the first couple of races each day to determine if any bias is
at play. On many days the track will play fair but, if you can “catch” a bias
early, the rest of your day could prove very lucrative. On a day when the track
is favoring speed, you’ll see the early pace horses hanging on well and closers
having a difficult time making up any ground.
Look to take advantage of the 1 1/16-mile races. The starting gate for this
commonly run distance is close to the first turn and the stretch run is short,
making it conducive to speed horses breaking from inside posts.
Keep in mind that when it rains, the track has a tendency to be speed
favoring.
Turf Lovers’ Galore
If you understand the predominant turf bias here and are familiar with the barns
that point to this meet, then Keeneland turf racing can be a prime reason to
play on a daily basis.
Keeneland’s grass course is one of only a few sand-based turf courses in
the United States, and it consistently benefits closers. One must be an exceptional
horse to wire a turf field here. Most front runners start to peter out at the
eighth-pole as the winner is often seen making a sweeping, strong rally on the
outside.
According to TSN’s 2005 Track Stats book for Kentucky (available online
through the Tsnhorse.com online bookstore), 13 percent of all turf routes last
year were won in front-running fashion. The year before, only 4 percent were won
wire to wire. It is wise to favor proven turf horses with a strong late run,
preferably breaking from an inside post.
Low Takeout
Kentucky racing offers one of the best takeout structures in the country. What
does that mean? More money returned to the bettors. Straight wagers (win, place,
show) are “taxed” at only 16 percent, meaning 84 percent of the handle is
returned to the betting public. All exotic wagers have a low 19-percent takeout,
well below the national average. That equates to generous payouts. Check out the
average payoffs the last two years for both trifectas and Pick 3s.
| Wager : | 2003 avg | 2004 avg | ||
| Trifecta: | $337 | $249 | ||
| Pick 3: | $346 | $259 |
Looking to hit a nice score? Allot some of your daily wagering budget to
taking a swing at the trifecta or Pick 3.
When tackling the trifecta, find a race on the card where the favorite
appears vulnerable. Maybe he’s a closer racing against a potential stiff speed
bias. Or, his jockey is 0 for 20 at the meet. The same race may be a good choice
as part of a Pick 3 sequence. If you are correct and beat the favorite, your
chance at a lucrative payoff will have increased exponentially!
Superior Information
It’s difficult to win consistently at the races with the same information that
everyone else is using. That’s where sites such as Brisnet.com come in. With
reports such as the Ultimate Past Performances, Brisnet gives users access to
Pace Ratings to determine who will get the early lead. Current Track Bias data
is also provided, letting you know just what types of runners are winning at
each distance and surface.
Jockeys and Streaks
At meets such as Keeneland, the high-profile riders win most of the races.
At last year’s Fall Meet, for instance, Rafael Bejarano and the recently retired
Pat Day accounted for 46 winners, in aggregate. That’s about three on each card.
The first few days usually set the tone for the remainder of the meet. Stay
away from jockeys who start off cold. They rarely recover and will burn a lot of
money. The “bigger” the name, the more important it is to take notice.
Quinellas
Deciding the right horse or horses to bet on at Keeneland is only solving half
the equation. The other critical element is how to wager on the race. That often
requires finding the proper bet.
There are two wagers offered at Keeneland that are misunderstood and many
times overlooked by the public. The first is the quinella. The concept behind
this strangely named wager is picking the top two finishers in either order.
Sound familiar? It’s simply a boxed exacta, and best of all, it’s offered at
half the cost. However, that’s only a fraction of the good news.
Because the quinella is overlooked and misunderstood, the payoffs can be very
generous, especially when compared to the exacta. On average the quinella should
pay half what the exacta pays, but this is most often not the case. The quinella
usually pays more and, many times, significantly more than the $1 exacta in the
same race.
Here’s just a few examples, based on $2 payoffs, from the 2005 Spring meet.*
| Exacta | Quinella | |
| $15.20 | $10.60 | |
| $9.60 | $7.20 | |
| $100.80 | $66.40 | |
| $404.20 | $279.20 | |
| $33.80 | $22.80 | |
| $138.80 | $81.20 |
* accessed from the Brisnet.com Archive Result Charts
These examples were just from the first two days of the 2005 Spring meet!
Occasionally, the exacta will pay better but, odds are, the quinella will
outperform it on a consistent basis.
Dime Super
The other value play at Keeneland is found in the 10-cent superfecta. Keeneland
lowered the superfecta minimum, formerly a $1 base wager, last spring to allow
bettors to play it for $.10 per combination. The reason was two fold —
taxes and allowing the smaller bettor to afford the wager. Let me explain.
Since the wager is based on a dime increment, rather than one dollar, it is
less likely to result in you having to pay income tax at the time the ticket is
cashed. The fractional nature of the 10-cent superfecta means that players are
less likely to reach the threshold level set by the IRS.
To properly play the superfecta, one has to cover many combinations. If
you’ve ever played the trifecta, you know how hard it can be to correctly pick
the top three finishers. Try picking the top four! Whereas there are 720
different trifecta combinations in a typical 10-horse race, there are 5,040
different superfecta combinations. Now that you can play the wager for 10-cent
increments, it becomes much more affordable to go after the “super.”
If you can beat the favorite in a superfecta, the payoffs can be huge even
for a dime increment. Successfully keying the favorite on top can also be
lucrative as long as a couple of longshots come in underneath. Also, the larger
the field and the more contentious the race, the higher the likelihood of a good
payout.
Superfecta Strategies
Presented below are some different ways of playing dime superfecta partwheels,
based on a 10-horse field size:
1 with 2-3-4 with ALL with ALL = $16.80
1 with 2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with ALL = $4.20
Key 1 over 5 horses = $6
Key 1 over 6 horses = $12
You can key one horse, along with four other contenders, in each of the four
superfecta positions for a minimal investment:
1 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 = $2.40
2-3-4-5 with 1 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 = $2.40
2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 1 with 2-3-4-5 = $2.40
2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 1 = $2.40
Find the right race and get creative with the 10-cent superfecta, and you may
just end up bragging to your friends how you cashed several hundred dollars for
a dime wager!
Best of luck.
***Rich Nilsen is a four-time Las Vegas qualifier and Marketing
Director for Brisnet.com, which offers a complete line of superior handicapping
products for all tracks including Keeneland. He won the $10,000 Grand Prize in
the 2001 Keeneland Handicapping Contest.
Click on the links to read Nilsen’s articles:
Part 1 -
Part 2