Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

NOVEMBER 24, 2005

by Tim Holland

With the current Churchill Downs meet winding down, it is time for Kentucky

handicappers to turn their attention to Turfway Park where racing will be

conducted on the Polytrack through the winter. This will be the acid test for

the new surface which has never been used in the adverse weather conditions that

Kentucky experiences.

During each of the past few winters, Turfway lost many cards due to the track

being frozen and then suddenly thawing, leading to uneven patches and extremely

dangerous racing conditions. While the Polytrack has been used with great

success in the wet winters of England for several years, it will have to

overcome the effects of rapid temperature changes in Kentucky.

So far, the new surface has received an almost unanimous thumbs up from the

horsemen. Even before the September meet started, trainers had noted how much

easier the surface was on their charges. Exercise riders compared the experience

of galloping horses over the Polytrack to riding gazelles; even from on top of

the horse riders could feel the "spring" that the surface produced.

Indeed, the number of injuries and soundness problems were noticeably reduced

during the September meet. The only negativity concerned the dusty kickback that

some trainers said was affecting the horses' respiratory systems after the

races. This had not been seen to be a problem in England, possibly due to the

damper climate.

The September meet featured perfect weather conditions and the new surface

received a good test with 221 races run. Of these, 72, or 33 percent, were won

by favorites, comparable to the 32 percent win rate achieved at the equivalent

meet in 2004.

As well as providing a safe, consistent surface, another advantage Polytrack

claims is to lessen the impact of track biases. After studying 100 sprints

between six and 6 1/2 furlongs, it appears that this may well hold true. In

2004, 56 percent of the races at this distance were won by horses that were

either on the lead or contesting throughout. This was reduced by 14 percent in

2005, which meant that horses pressing or stalking the pace now had as good a

shot at the win as those out in front early in the race.

2004		Win %			2005		Win %
Speed		56%			Speed		42%
Pressers		33%			Pressers		41%
Closers		11%			Closers		17%

Meanwhile post position stats for sprints were pretty much unchanged, still

showing a slight advantage to those drawn toward the outside.

2004		Post %			2005		Post %
Rail		8%			Rail		11%
*1-4		11%			1-4		9%
*5-8		11%			5-8		12%
*9+		13%			9+		15%

* Post position stats represent win percentage from all starters for each

post grouping

At longer distances (one mile and over) and short sprints (5 to 5 1/2 f), the

sample sizes were too small to draw any logical conclusions.

With less emphasis on speed, it followed that the stamina of the runners

would be of more relevance than before and a quick study indeed proved this

correct. This year, using all sires of winners who had at least three crops of

racing age, the average winning distance (AWD) of their offspring was 6.99

furlongs. This was up from 6.59 furlongs in 2004, a substantial rise.

When English tracks first started using the Polytrack in place of the

American style "Equitrack," sharp bettors were quick to notice that there was a

slight difference, pedigree wise, in horses who performed well over each

surface. Likewise at Turfway, handicappers noted that turf-bred types were

finishing better than would be expected on the regular dirt track. Some of the

nation's leading turf sires did well as Red Ransom, Rahy, Lear Fan, Spinning

World, Chester House, Royal Academy and El Prado (Ire) all produced winners.

The leading sires for the meet, ranked by wins, were Tale of the Cat, Boston

Harbor, Favorite Trick, Grand Slam, Sefapiano and Slew City Slew, respectively.

None of these stallions are well known as turf sires, but all receive

respectable ratings as found in the TSN Sire Stat book.

Sires		Turf rating
Tale of the Cat		C
Boston Harbor		A
Favorite Trick		B
Grand Slam		B
Sefapiano		C
Slew City Slew		B

Tale of the Cat has achieved success siring runners such as Lion Heart, who

was potentially a great sprinter but had enough class to run second in the

Kentucky Derby (G1). Not able to reach the top himself as a runner, Tale of the

Cat did prove himself to be very adaptable by handling many different

conditions. After winning his debut at a mile, he made his third lifetime start

in the Haskel Invitational (G2) and ran a creditable race to be fourth behind

Touch Gold, Anet and Free House. Switched to sprinting, the three-year-old took

the King's Bishop (G2) over an off track.

The following year, Tale of the Cat chased eventual Breeders Cup Classic (G1)

winner Awesome Again home in the Whitney H. (G1) at Saratoga before continuing

to prove his adaptability with a smart score in a one-mile turf allowance at

Saratoga. In his final start, the son of Storm Cat returned to a sprint with a

respectable third in the Vosburgh (G1).

By siring the winners of five races and six more in the money finishes, Tale

of the Cat has made a strong early impression over the Polytrack. His best

performers in September were Artemus Sunrise, who took the Turfway Park Fall

Championship S. (G3), and Whoopi Cat, third in the Turfway Breeders' Cup (G3).

Grand Slam also displayed great flexibility on the track. He showed precocity

with a pair of Grade 1 victories at two, stamina by winning the Peter Pan (G2)

and great acceleration with a tremendous closing kick for second in the 1998

Breeders Cup Sprint (G1) Additionally, the son of Gone West finished second in a

turf stakes and won the Champagne S. (G1) over an off track. He had four winners

over the Polytrack in September, and Grand Slam is also the sire of Ball Four,

runner-up in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at 45-1.

Another with a wide-ranging racing resume is the slightly disappointing sire

Favorite Trick. Horse of the Year at two and winner of the Jim Dandy (G2) at

three, the colt proved himself over a muddy track when winning the Saratoga

Special (G2) and captured the Keeneland Breeders' Cup Mile (G2) on the turf.

While his offspring were not competing at the top level, Favorite Trick still

compiled an enviable Polytrack record of 4-3-0 from seven starts.

Other sires worth keeping an eye out for who produced winners in September

and fit this "adaptable" pattern are Beau Genius, Best of Luck, Cherokee Run,

Distorted Humor, Dixieland Heat, Fit to Fight, Gulch, Mr Greeley, Not For Love,

Petionville, Richter Scale, Smoke Glacken and Stormin Fever.

In past years, one of my favorite, and often most profitable, wintertime

projects had been to closely follow Turfway's ever changing, and extreme, track

bias. I will still look for some trends, but with the likelihood of that being a

dead end, I will be spending more time and effort searching for runners whose

pedigrees spell "Polytrack."