HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 23, 2005
by Dick Powell
Although the winners of Hollywood Park’s Grade 1 stakes for juveniles got all
of the attention on closing weekend, the real stars of the future may have been
in action on the undercard. Those intriguing prospects might make some noise in 2006 and bear watching.
In Saturday’s 6TH race, Doug O’Neill sent out PLAGIARIST (Souvenir Copy) to
make his career debut going six furlongs against maiden special weight
competition. The gelded Cal-bred juvenile was dismissed at odds of 9-1 despite a
series of strong workouts at Hollywood Park. Against 12 rivals, Plagiarist stole
everyone’s thunder by gunning to the front and establishing command with a
brilliant first quarter of :21.59 while racing well off the rail.
At the quarter pole, he maintained his two-length margin while covering the
half in :44.88. Through the lane, Corey Nakatani kept him to task and Plagiarist
drew away to an 8 1/4-length victory despite running greenly. His last quarter
was a sensational 24 seconds and his final time of 1:08.88 belied the fact that
he was under wraps at the end.
Plagiarist’s pedigree might surprise some when he stretches out. His sire,
Souvenir Copy (Mr. Prospector), won the Norfolk S. (G2) going two turns at two
and captured the Derby Trial (G3) at three going a one-turn mile. Out of the
winless Feature Article (Seattle Slew), Plagiarist’s granddam is Golden Treat
(Theatrical [Ire]), who won the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) going nine furlongs and is
a half-sister to Bet Twice, who earned more than $3.3 million and won the
Belmont S. (G1).
The final quarter of :24 indicates that O’Neill should be able to get
Plagiarist to stretch out to at least middle distances. Because Plagiarist is a stablemate to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Stevie Wonderboy (Stephen Got
Even), O’Neill may want to take advantage of opportunities to ship him around the country including
the lucrative Sunshine Millions.
In the next race, Neil Drysdale sent out CANTEEN (Fusaichi Pegasus), a
talented three-year-old who was still eligible for a non-winners of one other
than allowance. A half-brother to Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Strodes Creek,
Canteen has been a bit of a disappointment this year after running in the
Arkansas Derby (G2) while still a maiden.
Drysdale added blinkers for the first time on Saturday and the results were
immediate. Pat Valenzuela sent the colt to the front and his mount pulled hard
against his efforts to restrain. Once Valenzuela won that battle, Canteen
settled with a :24.40 third quarter. He was challenged again on the far turn,
but Valenzuela let out a notch and Canteen repulsed it.
In the run through the homestretch, Valenzuela had him on a loose rein with
the whip turned down. A late run from longshot Le Copain (Arg) (Luhuk) fell a
length short as Canteen proved to be a handy winner. Saturday’s charts show
Canteen winning by a length in the average time of 1:43.37 for 1 1/16 miles.
However,
if you watch the race, you’ll see a green colt who might have finally figured
out what the game is all about and is ready to live up to his potential in next
year’s handicap ranks.
The 1 1/16-mile races on the main track at Hollywood Park feature a very
short run into the first turn, which can easily result in rough trip when more
than a few horses want to gain early position. In Saturday’s Hollywood Futurity
(G1), though, the rough going came about even sooner.
A field of eight lined up to face the starter and as soon as he sprung the
latches the game was on. BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) took a left hand turn out of
the gate, bumping Your Tent or Mine (Forest Camp) hard, and Old Thunder (Fusaichi
Pegasus) broke outward at the start from post 2, leaving Kobayashi (Ecton Park)
nowhere to go.
Once the field got entangled, Old Thunder held a brief lead down the
backstretch while being pushed by Brother Derek. As they headed into the far
turn, Brother Derek took control and opened up a clear lead with a :23.46 third
quarter. Your Tent or Mine gave gallant chase but could not overcome getting
clobbered at the start and finished a length behind Brother Derek.
All races have bumping and contact at the start, but Brother Derek’s bump of
Your Tent or Mine was severe enough to warrant a claim of foul by Valenzuela,
rider of Your Tent or Mine. The stewards took a look but quickly decided to let
the original order of finish stand, ruling that the contact between the pair was
not sufficient to alter the original order of finish.
Fortunately for viewers, Hollywood Park’s simulcast shows a head-on shot of
the start of 1 1/16-mile races, so everyone got a good view of what happened, and
the bettors who made Your Tent or Mine the 9-5 favorite were not happy with the
outcome. Considering that Your Tent or Mine was beaten only a length, it’s hard
to say that the bump did not alter the order of the finish.
Five lengths back behind the top pair was Bob and John (Seeking the Gold),
who was controversially disqualified after winning the Real Quiet S. by six
lengths in his previous start. In the Futurity, he ran one-paced from post 1 and
never really threatened the top two. Still, I was impressed with how he carries
himself with an efficient stride that is reminiscent of A.P. Indy. Speed was
holding all day and Bob and John could not overcome it.
The big disappointment was A. P. Warrior (A.P. Indy), who was wide on both
turns and never really made up any ground. He behaved himself in the post parade
and at the gate, but it didn’t transform itself into a better performance on the
track.
Brother Derek made a strong appearance in the paddock and post parade with a
very impressive front end. He was very square with a wide barrel and gave the
impression that longer distances will not be a problem. The Cal-bred son of
Benchmark cost $275,000 this year at the Barretts two-year-olds in training sale, and he
earlier rewarded his connections with a win in the Norfolk S. (G2) and a fourth
in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) from a bad post (13).
Benchmark did not win a graded stakes until he was six and Brother Derek’s
dam, Miss Soft Sell (Siyah Kalem), was unraced. She has produced one other
stakes winner, Don’tsellmeshort (Benchmark), but all of his wins came at two.
Your guess is as good as mine whether there is classic potential here, but
Brother Derek is a grand-looking individual who is as versatile as any juvenile
racing today. He broke his maiden from far off the pace going 4 1/2 furlongs yet
won the two-turn Norfolk going gate to wire. In the Breeders’ Cup, he made a big
middle move before weakening. The good-looking bay colt now has a Grade 1 stakes
win to his credit.
On Sunday, Tyler Baze put 39-1 shot DIPLOMAT LADY (Forestry) on the lead from
the inside and never looked back to shock her Hollywood Starlet (G1) rivals,
winning the 1 1/16-mile event in 1:43.89. By Forestry (Storm Cat) and out of a
Saratoga Six (Alydar) mare, Diplomat Lady is bred for speed top and bottom. With
What a Pleasure (Bold Ruler) and Swoon’s Son (The Doge) as her next broodmare
sires, she’ll need a similar, uncontested lead if she is ever going to beat
high-class competition going two turns.