PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
DECEMBER 22, 2005
Can the ‘jinx’ be broken?
by Tim Holland
With the last major two-year-old race of 2005, the Hollywood Futurity (G1),
in the books, and a break in the action until the first important Kentucky Derby
(G1) preps begin at Santa Anita and Gulfstream, handicappers are afforded an
opportunity to ponder the merits of the next Triple Crown contenders.
While Brother Derek’s (Benchmark) gutsy win in Saturday’s Futurity proved
that his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Belmont was
no fluke, it also provided evidence that this year’s juvenile crop is better
than normal. Indeed, the first three home in the Juvenile — Stevie Wonderboy
(Stephen Got Even), Henny Hughes (Hennessy) and favored First Samurai (Giant’s
Causeway) — were all logical contenders going into the race and all, on paper,
appear likely to achieve additional success at three. Add to the list the
Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) and Futurity S. (G2) winner Private Vow (Broken Vow),
Remsen S. (G2) winner Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat) and the outstanding filly
Folklore (Tiznow), and the foal crop of 2003 looks very solid.
Much has been made of the so called Breeders’ Cup Juvenile “jinx” and it
cannot be denied that previous winners have had a poor record afterward. In the
history of the Juvenile, only one winner, Timber Country in 1994, went on to win
a Triple Crown race the following year. Additionally, it has been 10 years since
a Juvenile winner — Unbridled’s Song in the 1996 Florida Derby — even won another
Grade 1 race. As bad as that may look, all of this can be countered by the fact
that Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Easy Goer, Tabasco Cat, Editor’s Note, Point Given
and Afleet Alex all hit the board in the Juvenile and went on to win at least
one race of the Triple Crown series.
Of the last five Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners three — Wilko (Awesome Again),
Johannesburg and Macho Uno — fit into what might be termed the “Arazi” syndrome.
The breathtaking winner of the 1991 Juvenile at Churchill Downs, Arazi was
unusually mature as a two-year-old. Shrewd trainer Francois Boutin took full
advantage of this fact, racing him hard at two and winning four Group/Grade 1
events. When Arazi reappeared the following spring, it was noted, as Boutin had
expected, that the colt had barely grown an inch over the winter. He was still
good enough to win a Group 3 in France during the fall of his three-year-old
season, but Arazi’s peers had clearly caught up with him following his
sensational juvenile campaign.
Wilko, who defeated Afleet Alex in the 2004 Juvenile, was well below top
class in England, his best finish being a third place in a Group 3 at Ascot.
While he is by the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Awesome Again, which might
suggest improvement with more distance, there is little hope for stamina on
Wilko’s female side. Indeed, his dam is by the sprinter Indian Ridge, with speed
influences Ahonoora, Swing Easy, Roan Rocket and the miler Tap on Wood all
figuring prominently in his pedigree.
The 2001 champion two-year-old, Johannesburg, added the last of his four
Grade/Group 1 scores in the Juvenile, just as Arazi had done 11 years earlier.
Being by the top two-year-old Hennessy, out of the Ogygian mare Myth, and with a
second dam by Mr. Prospector, it was easy to forecast that Johannesburg’s best
form would be at two. Indeed, Myth is a half-sister to the English and Irish
champion two-year-old Minardi and leading juvenile sire Tale of the Cat.
Macho Uno beat a strong field, including Point Given and Street Cry (Ire), in
the 2000 renewal and one might have expected even more from him at three since
he is a half-brother to Awesome Again. However the big difference between the
siblings is that Macho Uno is by the mostly speed influence Holy Bull, while
Awesome Again receives his stamina from his sire, Deputy Minister.
The other two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners in the last five years were
Vindication in 2002 and Action This Day the following year. It is particularly
disappointing, given his pedigree, that Vindication suffered an injury that
prevented him from racing again. By Seattle Slew, Vindication is out of the
Grade 3 route winner Strawberry Reason, who is by the Australian champion
Strawberry Road (Aus).
Action This Day is noteworthy because he won possibly the poorest Juvenile in
the Breeders’ Cup’s 16-year history. Amazingly, the 12 starters that year have
been able to win a total of only 12 races, just two of them graded, since the
Breeders’ Cup. A maiden winner in his previous start, Action This Day came with
a big late run to pick up all the pieces but won in a slow 1:43 3/5 while the
rest of the field faltered. Despite owning a decent pedigree, the son of Kris S
proved through the rest of his career that he was just a lucky horse in the
right place at the right time.
Undoubtedly, the most formful Juvenile in the last dozen years was the 1995
running when Unbridled’s Song beat Hennessy, Editor’s Note and Honor and Glory.
While Hennessy raced only two more times without winning, Editor’s Note won the
Belmont S. (G1) and the Super Derby (G1), Honour and Glory took the Met Mile
(G1), and Unbridled’s Song was victorious in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial
(G2) before running a huge race in to be fifth in the Derby despite being
hampered by foot problems. Additionally, all four, with the possible exception
of Editor’s Note, have gone on to prove their worth in the breeding shed.
In the next few months, this year’s probable two-year-old champion, Stevie
Wonderboy, will attempt to prove himself as good or better than Unbridled’s
Song. Interestingly, the duo both won their respective Juveniles at Belmont Park
against deep competition in exactly the same time of 1:41 3/5 — a time bettered
by only Favorite Trick in 1997.
While Unbridled’s Song gets his stamina from Unbridled (through his dam’s
sire, French Derby winner Le Fabuleux) and Caro, the mixture of Stephen Got
Even, (by the stamina influence A.P. Indy), and the Summer Squall/Roberto cross
on the female side ensures Stevie Wonderboy’s staying power.
Another factor that will help Stevie Wonderboy stay the 1 1/4 mile Derby trip
is his flexible running style. He does own tactical speed, but he showed at
Belmont that he can win from way off the pace.
One cannot say the same for the runner-up, Henny Hughes, who is bred like a
pure sprinter. Henny Hughes is by the aforementioned speed-type sire Hennessy,
but more importantly he is out of a mare by the major speed influence sire
Meadowlake. Even more pace is added on his female side through Hagley and it
would certainly seem that one-turn races should be in Henny Hughes’ future
rather than a futile Triple Crown attempt. One would also have to view the
third-place finisher, First Samurai, as being suspect at the Derby distance,
although no one could fault the connections for trying. While getting some
stamina from his sire, Giant’s Causeway, he is out of the successful sprinter
Freddie Frisson (Dixieland Band), who is herself a half-sister to the speedy
Grade 3-winning Sky Blue Pink (Strawberry Road [Aus]).
So with his pedigree, running style and the fact that this year’s Juvenile
may have been one of the better renewals, there appears to be no reason why
Stevie Wonderboy cannot break the “jinx” with a victory at Churchill Downs on
the first Saturday in May. However, an enjoyable exercise at this time of year
is to try to uncover a dark horse that may prevent him — which will be the
topic for another day.