HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 27, 2006
by Dick Powell
Churchill Downs has named 23 horses to be entered in its Kentucky Derby (G1)
Future Wager – Pool 1. All the rest of this year’s sophomore crop are lumped
into the field as number “24,” which is usually overbet each year.
If you like a horse that is in the field, don’t bother betting him. The
reward of a low price is not worth the risk of the amount of time between now
and the first Saturday in May and having to win the race itself. Yes, you can
play the field because you like an individual horse and still win the bet if
another member of this pool’s field is successful. However, it’s just not worth
the risk.
Now that the field is set and you have the ability to view the Ultimate Past
Performances from BRIS, a few horses begin to stick out.
ACHILLES OF TROY (Notebook) took four starts to break his maiden, but when Lasix was added, he exploded to an easy maiden victory before posting a 14-length
win in the Count Fleet S. at Aqueduct in a blazing-fast time. In that race, he
earned a 109 BRIS Speed figure, which at the moment is the fastest two-turn
number earned so far. It looks like he hasn’t stopped developing but will need a
new trainer since Jennifer Pedersen has left the employ of Ernie Paragallo’s
Paraneck Stable.
BARBARO (Dynaformer) is undefeated in three starts — all on the turf — and
won a Grade 3 last out going 1 1/8 miles. His pedigree is strong with stamina
influence Dynaformer on the top and a number of dirt influences on the dam’s
side.
We talked about BARBICAN (A.P. Indy) last week and he’s listed at 30-1 here. His form looks much better when you extrapolate it out to 10 furlongs and
his last allowance win at Gulfstream, going a mile in a quick 1:35 4/5,
indicates that he is ready for prime time.
When your trainer (Todd Pletcher) and jockey (John Velazquez) just won
Eclipse Awards, and your sire and broodmare sires are Storm Cat (Storm Bird) and A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew), you already have a lot going for you. Winning your
last two races, a Grade 3 and 2, only adds to BLUEGRASS CAT’s (Storm Cat)
allure. He’s training at Palm Meadows for Pletcher and, since he answered so
many questions last year, he’ll probably have a truncated campaign to get him
ready for May 6.
BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold) has run in five straight two-turn races for
Bob Baffert and looked good last week winning a first-level allowance race at
Santa Anita in a very professional manner.
HALF OURS (Unbridled’s Song) is a hugely talented colt from Pletcher who won
his first two starts early last year and then went to the sidelines with an
injury. He has a lot of catching up to do, and with Pletcher’s depth it will be
interesting to see how hard he gets pushed.
In my mind, Point Given has been a disaster so far as a stallion. He’s had a
low percentage of horses to get to the track and his only hope is they will
improve with added distance. POINT DETERMINED (Point Given) was a romping maiden
winner in his two-turn debut for Bob Baffert two weeks ago at Santa Anita. Out
of a stakes-winning Broad Brush mare, it will be a challenge to overlook his
sire’s overall statistics and just focus on what he is showing on the track. If
you like Point Determined, be thankful that he made it into the body of the
first Future Wager and not the field.
As for betting Pool 1, my advice is to shop for
value but don’t get paralyzed by your selection. For instance, I will bet
Barbican and Point Determined in Pool 1 and should get 30-1 on each. Also, while
I will keep tabs on them for the next three months and track their progress, I
must make sure that having a future bet on them in my pocket doesn’t keep me
from making smart decisions in the
meantime.
My goal for future wagers is to make it to the gate at the Derby. If these
two can, my goal will be to, hopefully, construct some kind of hedge strategy
that will take advantage of having two starters in the gate at long odds.
The next goal is for the horses you bet in the Future Wager to attract a lot
of pari-mutuel attention going into the Derby. If a 30-1 future wager horse goes
to the Derby as one of the betting choices, it makes the ability to construct a
hedge strategy a whole lot easier since the other horses you will be saving with
will be going off at generous odds.
More importantly, though, once you make a choice this weekend on a Future
Wager entrant, you have to be as flexible as possible. If Barbican shows up in
the Gotham S. (G3) going a mile, I’ll root for him to run well (remember, I want
him to be a Derby starter) but I might bet against him at a distance that might
be too short for him.
At the same time, if Barbican runs poorly heading into the Derby, he won’t
even get a second look from me. I already have him at strong odds, but that’s the
end of my loyalty. Don’t get too involved as the Derby prep season goes on to
the point that you stick with horses that you would normally ignore. If you make
a mistake this weekend, put it behind you as soon as possible. The fact that I
like Barbican and Point Determined in Pool 1 doesn’t mean that I will pick
either one of them on Derby Day. For now, they just represent some decent
pari-mutuel value.
Mark down the 6TH race on December 26 at Santa Anita as a key race. Point
Determined ran third that day in his career debut and came back to win next time
out. LATENT HEAT (Maria’s Mon) battled gamely on the outside that day to run
second behind CINDAGO (Indian Charlie), who was making his second start for John
Sadler.
Latent Heat returned to the races last week at Santa Anita and was a very
impressive maiden winner going seven furlongs in a fast time. He broke well for
Pat Valenzuela and cruised to the front coming out of the chute. Despite two
challengers on his outside, he relaxed beautifully on the lead and opened up
going into the far turn.
Repelling challenges nearing the top of the stretch, Latent Heat was kept to
task through the lane and won by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:23.12 for seven furlongs.
His last furlong was :12.69 and, considering he beat Point Determined
in his career debut, he bears a lot of watching.
Like most Juddmonte Farms homebreds, Latent Heat has a deep pedigree on his
female side. His dam is a multiple Grade 2 winner and she has already produced a
multiple Group 3 winner in France. Trained by Bobby Frankel, Latent Heat will
face a challenge in stretching out since his sire, Maria’s Mon, only has a BRIS Average
Winning Distance of 6.9 furlongs, as does his broodmare sire, Capote.