November 20, 2024

Pedigree Handicapping

Last updated: 1/26/06 6:53 PM


PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

JANUARY 27, 2006

Overachieving female families

by Tim Holland

Noticing that Touched By Madness (Sword Dance [Ire]) is entered for Saturday’s
Sunshine Million Turf S. at Gulfstream Park serves as a reminder to pay attention
to overachieving families. Indeed, pedigree handicappers are always on the
lookout for stallions that produce surprise winners, but one also needs to
remember that following certain broodmares can be equally lucrative.

Most horseplayers, even many that barely factor pedigrees into their
handicapping, are familiar with the 2002 Broodmare of the Year Toussaud (El Gran
Senor). A top
class, but temperamental, Grade 1 winner, Toussaud has proven her greatness in
the breeding shed by producing five graded winners all by different sires. Her
first breeding was to Mr. Prospector, which resulted in Chester House, whose
career highlight was winning the Arlington Million (G1) in 2000. The following
year, Toussaud was matched with Seattle Slew from which came the top class filly
Honest Lady, a Grade 1 route winner who also finished second in the
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). Grade 2 winner Decarchy (Distant View) was next and was soon
followed by Chiselling (Woodman), who won the Secretariat S. (G1). Toussaud’s
sixth foal, and leading money earner, is the Belmont S. (G1) winner and Kentucky
Derby (G1) second Empire Maker (Unbridled).

Just as impressive as Toussaud’s achievements are those of Personal Ensign
(Private Account),
who was Broodmare of the Year in 1996. A champion herself on the racetrack, Personal Ensign was unbeaten in
13 races and ended her career with a
dramatic win over Winning Colors in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Her first
three matings were to Mr. Prospector, which produced Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)
winner Miner’s Mark, and the Grade 1-placed, and later a successful sire, Our
Emblem. A few less productive years followed before a breeding to Easy Goer
resulted in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner My Flag, who in turn would
be the dam of champion Storm Flag Flying. Two-year-olds of 2006 from this
immediate family that are worth keeping an eye out for include Fastbridled (Unbridled’s
Song), Rejoicing (Forestry), and My Flag’s daughter, Viva La Flag (Rahy).

While Toussaud and Personal Ensign are undoubtedly great producers, they are of
little use to the value-seeking horseplayers who need to find successful
families that the general public does not recognize. One good example is the
family started by Vincesca, a foal of 1982 by the decent broodmare sire Darby
Creek Road (Roberto). Owned through her breeding career by Gilbert G. Campbell, Vincesca has produced
11 foals, nine of which have raced a total of 231
times, winning 57 — a win rate of nearly 25 percent, which would have produced a
healthy return on investment (ROI) of $2.56 for every $2 wagered.

Bred in Florida by John M. Edwards, Vincesca was sold in Ocala as a weanling
for $3,000, brought $14,000 as a yearling, and was claimed for $22,000 by
Campbell in her fourth start. Racing only as a two-year-old, she won one of seven
starts and was second twice before being bred at three to Shananie, a son of In
Reality. This breeding resulted in a very tough and consistent performer named
Garemma, who won 16 of his 43 starts, including the 1989 Sport Page
H (G3) at Aqueduct at odds of nearly 9-1.

Being by a son of In Reality, it is not a surprise that Garemma was only tried
on the turf once — without success, but he did sport a good record over off tracks,
which is a trait many of his siblings owned. Indeed, collectively, Vincesca’s
offspring own an impressive 31-9-8-2 record over tracks labeled muddy or sloppy, including a 21-1 shocker by her foal of 2002, Favalora (Untuttable), in the
Comet S. at The Meadowlands. In comparison, her offspring on the turf have
compiled a record of 33-5-5-4 — although 13 of those starts and four wins
are accounted for by Vinnie’s Boy (Sejm), whose liking for the grass is
influenced by his grandsire, Danzig.

Garemma is the only graded winner out of Vincesca, but the mare is also
responsible for four other stakes winners, including Shananie’s Wish as well as
the above mentioned Favalora and Vinnie’s Boy. However, it is her second foal,
Marilyn’s Madness, also by Shananie, who is duplicating Vincesca’s achievements
as a broodmare, having produced four stakes winners to date from eight horses to
race. Overall her runners have won 50 races.

Trained by Edward Allard for Campbell through her entire racing career,
Marilyn’s Madness showed plenty of speed while winning seven of her 29
starts and earned her black-type in the Atlantic City Oaks over a sloppy track.
Her first two breedings were to the very fast Mr. Prospector sire Unreal Zeal, which produced a stakes-placed filly, and Unreal Madness, winner of four stakes
and a close fourth in the Grade 1 Carter H. after setting the early fractions.
Switched to the more turf-oriented stallion Sejm the following year (the same
season that Vincesca was bred to him), Marilyn’s Madness produced a turf-favoring sprint/miler similar to Vinnie’s Boy named Sejm’s Madness.

While this family has enjoyed much success being crossed with a variety of
sires, it is the addition of the turf stamina influence of Sword Dance (Ire) (Nijinsky)
that is of the most recent interest, especially for horseplayers who follow
pedigrees. The first of six visits to Sword Dance for Marilyn’s Magic resulted
in Magical Madness, who won the Crank It Up S. at Monmouth in his second venture
on the turf and who later won a grass stakes at Mountaineer Park at odds of more
than
37-1. An unraced filly named Millenium Madness was the second Sword Dance
foal, while the third was Coco’s Madness, who won his turf debut and paid his
followers more than $30 before finishing third in the Kent Breeders’ Cup S. (G3) on the
grass at Delaware. Rapier Dance, who won on his second turf try and was later
stakes-placed, was next and followed by Touch of Madness, who only recorded one
lifetime start.

Touched By Madness, the last foal by Sword Dance out of Marilyn’s
Magic, has been a model of consistency, winning three of his 13 lifetime starts, including a wire-to-wire victory in the Jersey Derby at Monmouth Park in his
second grass race at odds of more than 10-1. His turf record of 5-1-2-0
is more impressive when one takes into account the fact that he was first past
the post in the Kent Breeders’ Cup only to be disqualified and placed fourth for
interference in the stretch.

With plenty of other early speed to contend with, and meeting older horses for
the first time, Saturday’s Sunshine Millions Turf S. will not be an easy spot for
Touched By Madness. However, his morning line odds of 30-1 are mouth watering. Win or lose, one can guarantee that there will be other opportunities to make
money at the windows on the descendants of Vincesca.