HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 3, 2006
by Dick Powell
I watch international racing as much as possible and I am always struck by
the lack of handicapping information that is provided. Past performances usually
consist of only an extended result line, and the form of horses is generally evaluated by
who beat whom and on what kind of ground they did it.
However, one area that we are way behind our foreign counterparts is the “stewards’ reports,” a detailed compilation of what happened out of the
ordinary before, during and after a race. If you pay any attention to the Dubai
International Racing Carnival and use their web site — www.emiratesracing.com
— you can get information that we in America would love to have.
In their Stewards’ Report, the following items appeared for the Carnival
races on January 19 and 26:
“IMPERIAL ICE (SAf) (S Randolph) veered inwards at the start crowding FAIR
ROSAMOND (Ire) (R Mullen) in onto DON’T DILI DALI (GB) (J Egan) which struck the
hindquarters of DONIA DUBAI (Ire) (P Dillon).”
Our detailed charts indicate if a horse breaks poorly but doesn’t give much,
if any, information on how the horse behaved in the loading process. Not in
Dubai: “WIN RIVER WIN (USA) (J Spencer) proved difficult to load delaying the
start. Trainer Mr. C Kurt was advised that WIN RIVER WIN (USA) was placed on the
starters list and would require a stalls test before being entered to race.”
Over here, the starter and stewards might require further schooling of reluctant
loaders, but the public knows nothing about it. And, there is a difference
between a horse who doesn’t behave at the gate and one that has to go back to
school in order to race again.
If your horse runs an inexplicably poor race, maybe there’s a reason after
all. “CONROY (USA) returned having lost its near fore plate.” Or, try this one:
“When questioned regarding the disappointing performance of CLASP (GB), jockey T Durcan
explained that after traveling well in running, upon entering the straight the
colt had appeared uncomfortable when held tight by runners and when urged along
was reluctant to stride out.”
And these: “SAFSOOF (USA) (R Mullen) returned with a cut to its mouth.” “COMMANDOCOURAGEOUS (SAF) (J Bekker) returned with a small cut to its near fore
fetlock.” “SLEIPNER (BRZ) (R Cleary) injured its off fore fetlock and was
pulled up at the 300m. Trainer Mr. A Selvaratnam later advised that SLEIPNER
(BRZ) would be retired from racing.”
Horse have a bad trip? Our charts do a good job in providing a narrative on
how the race was run, but the Dubai Stewards’ Report goes further with greater
detail. “PARASOL (Ire) (K Manning) shifted inwards passing the 200m and bumped
heavily with SAPUCAI (Arg) (R Moore), then crowded that gelding causing it to be
restrained. PARASOL (Ire) continued to shift inwards and near the 100m carried ELMUSTANSER
(GB) (R Hills) inwards.”
“At the 375m MILLBAG (IRE) rolled inwards crowding PRINCE CHARMING (GB). When
attempting a marginal run near the 300m T-BIRD (SAf) (T O’Shea) brushed the
hindquarters of the tiring HINTERLAND (SAf) (R Moore), became unbalanced and
struck the running rail.”
The Dubai Stewards’ Report also tells you the adjudication of the foul in
terms of punishment for the rider or the trainer. “JET EXPRESS (SAf) (S
Randolph) shifted out passing the 75m causing SAFE SRUCTURE (SAf) to be
restrained. Jockey S Randolph was found guilty to a charge of careless riding
under ERA 69 (i) and was subsequently suspended from riding in races for 2 days
(Abu Dhabi on 5 February 2006, and Nad Al Sheba on 9 February 2006).”
When we look at our charts, we never know how severe infractions were in
terms of suspending the rider since our charts are available fewer than 20 minutes
after the race is run and well before the stewards here decide to take action.
Over there, they only race a few days a week and justice is very swift. The
stewards in Dubai, like most racing jurisdictions around the world, but not in
North America, rule with an iron hand and we get their rulings right in their
report on the races.
I have argued here that additional information is not always helpful in
aiding our handicapping, but some of the gems in the Dubai Stewards’ Report are
priceless. They do not necessarily have to be attached to race charts but as
long as they’re housed somewhere on a track’s web site that we can have access
to, that will be fine.
A word of caution and disclosure. I work the Dubai International
Racing Carnival on behalf of its North American host – Churchill Downs Inc. The
morning line that you see in the past performances is done by me and if you ever
want to generate an immediate migraine headache, try doing it.
I use the pdf form guide that is available two days before the races are
run. It gives the running lines for four races and some detailed comments on the right
side about the horse’s trip. I convert kilograms into pounds while generating
the one-page recap sheet that you might be using.
What makes the morning line for Dubai racing so difficult is not only the
fact that horses from all over the world are competing there, but the betting
pools are commingled from the United States, the United Kingdom and South
Africa. There is no betting allowed in Dubai so the pools are hosted in South
Africa.
I learned very quickly last year that when Michael de Kock has a runner in a
race, he will probably be bet very strongly in South Africa. There are lots of
nuances to doing it and it can be very humbling when you look at an odds board
of the races at Nad Al Sheba and it looks nothing like what you thought it would
be.
BRIS has Dubai past performances in their “pdf past performances” sections and
are available early enough to handicap the races before they are run late in the
morning and early afternoon. There are big fields and lots of wagering
opportunities if you pay attention. Program numbers are assigned as they are
throughout the world and have no relation to post positions. The recap sheet and
past performances have the post position next to the program numbers and with
bulky fields, trip handicapping can be very beneficial.
For the races that have been run in Dubai, utilize the Stewards’ Report on
the Emirates Racing Association’s web site. The main track is usually listed as
“fast” and the turf is usually listed as “good to firm.” Horses shifting from
turf to dirt are especially challenging to handicap and some are coming off long
layoffs.
What has gotten better is the popularity of the Carnival with international
horsemen, which means they are shipping better horses that are much
fitter to race for the big money. Horses tend to race back on
short rest and many of the competitors have already been racing since the Nad Al Sheba meet began in November.
That leaves a lot of form to look at.