Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 25, 2006

by Dick Powell

I like turf racing and I like turf racing at Gulfstream Park. But my bankroll

hasn't been liking turf racing at Gulfstream Park this meet and it's been

driving me nuts.

Being naturally obsessive and compulsive, I decided that I had to go over

every imaginable detail of turf racing at Gulfstream to figure out what I've

been doing wrong and how I can correct it.

The biggest mistake I've been making at Gulfstream this year has been not

paying enough attention to where the rail is on the turf course and

understanding the resulting implications.

When Gulfstream extended their main track from one mile to the current 1 1/8

miles, they installed a new turf course that took advantage of the additional

space. The previous seven-furlong turf course is now 160 feet wide and racing

can be conducted in eight different "lanes," each one 12 feet out incrementally

from the inside. When the rail is set at 60 feet or more (either 72 or 84 feet),

the running distance is about one mile.

Normally, with this much room, there would be two separate and distinct turf

courses - each with their own characteristics. But at Gulfstream, there is one

big, wide turf course that must be treated like two different turf courses.

When the rail is at 0 feet, the turf course behaves like the Inner Turf

Course at Saratoga. Inside posts tend to dominate and horses who get wide,

stalking trips are severely compromised.

When the rail is at least 60 feet out, the turf course behaves like the

Mellon Turf Course at Saratoga. Outside posts now have a fighting chance and

horses coming from behind can make a wide, sweeping move and get up in time.

Inside speed horses do not have the advantage that they have when the rail is

down on the inside.

The following list displays the rail position for each day of racing in the

first seven weeks:

January 4, 7, 8		84 feet
January 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16		60 feet
January 19, 20, 21, 22		36 feet
January 25, 26, 27		0 feet
January 28		72 feet
January 29 races 5 and 9		0 feet
January 29 race 7		72 feet
February 1, 2, 3		72 feet
February 4 and 5		off the turf
February 6		72 feet
February 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13		48 feet
February 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20		24 feet

Save this chart and update it as the meet progresses. Charts of the

Gulfstream Park turf races usually have the rail position in them -- if there is

no notation it means that the rail was set at 0 feet.

However, past performance lines do not have the rail position of

prior turf races at Gulfstream, so the above chart should be invaluable.

As you can see, the first three days of racing on the Gulfstream Park turf

course had the rail at 84 feet. Not a single horse went gate-to-wire in nine

races, and the winning post positions were 8, 7, 10, 8, 7, 12, 10, 3 and 2. The

turf was listed as "firm" each day and no matter what the pace scenario, horses

that came from far back on the outside dominated.

I think that this is when my slump began because the evidence was there that

outside closers were going to be tough at Gulfstream this year on the turf.

In week two, with the rail at 60 feet, we finally had a few horses win on or

near the front end in the 16 races conducted. MOONSHINE GAL (Forest Wildcat)

went gate-to-wire in race 8 on January 12 in what was the 13th turf race of the

meet and was one of four front-end winners on the turf that week. If you still

had week one on your mind, you probably had a bad week two.

Week three saw the temporary rail set at 36 feet and three of the nine

winners leading gate to wire. Winning running styles were varied and the course

played extremely fair.

Week four had the rail set at its innermost position of 0 feet the first

three days, at 72 feet for the three turf races on January 28 and the 7TH race

on January 29, and at 0 feet for races 5 and 9 on January 29. Of the 11 races

run on the far inside, horses forwardly placed or rallying on the inside had the

advantage. Of the four races run with the rail set at 72 feet, all were won from

off the pace.

Week five had the rail at 72 feet for the four days of racing that survived

the only real rainy spell of the meet. At this point, I should have understood

the cause-and-effect relationship of the location of the temporary rail on the

turf course and at 72 feet, I should have been looking at horses who might need

an extra sixteenth of a mile to get up in time.

But, with the rail down for most of week four, the data my brain was

processing was recent images of horses up near the lead doing well. Week five

contained 10 turf races and only JET PROPULSION (Double Honor) was able to go

gate to wire. A few pace prompters were able to win; the rest were deep closers.

There were 18 turf races run in week six when the rail was set at 48 feet. As

you would expect from the middle position, a variety of running styles were

successful.

Finally, the rail was set at 24 feet in week seven and five of the 19 turf

races were won gate to wire. Pace prompters did well and only a few horses were

able to rally from far back and get up in time.

I know this is terrible science and an example of what I accuse others of

doing, using "anecdotal evidence," but go back to Jerry Bailey's last ride in the

saddle. It was on Sunshine Millions day - the Cloverleaf Farms Turf S. Jerry was

aboard the 9-10 favorite, Silver Tree (Hennessy), and did everything that made

him one of the great riders of his time.

He saved ground, waited for room and exploded when the hole opened up on the

rail in the deep stretch.

Unfortunately, the "gods of racing" were against Jerry that day because the

rail was set at 72 feet. At 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream has to run this distance

with the rail farther out with the starting gate a furlong from the finish line.

If the race were run with the rail down on the inside, the starting gate would

have to be two furlongs from the finish line which would put it past the top of

the stretch on the far turn.

One-dimensional closer MIESQUE'S APPROVAL (Miesque's Son) was able to rally

that day out in the middle of the track on the far turn and get up in time,

denying Bailey and horse racing the fairy tale ending that was hoped for. The

rail set at 72 feet didn't beat Bailey, but it sure helped Miesque's Approval

win.

At Saratoga, favorites win more races on the Mellon Turf Course than on the

inner turf course, even with more starters per race. Logic says this happens

because the wider turns enable horses that have had traffic trouble enough time

to overcome it. The Inner Turf Course at Saratoga has more bad trips with

traffic problems being too much to overcome.

However, at Gulfstream, the percentage of winning favorites is not much

different from the outer rail positions to the inner rail positions. Overall, 26

favorites have won the 96 turf races run at Gulfstream in the first seven weeks,

a win rate of 27 percent.

For 24 turf races where the rail was placed at either 72 or 84 feet, only

five favorites won (21 percent win). I would have guessed that favorites would

have fared better than the par average of 27 percent with the rail out and the

wider turns, but that was not the case. And the average win price was not much

different than the overall average win price of $16.63 for the 96 turf races run

under all conditions.

So what are we to learn from all this. First and foremost, if you are playing

multiple race wagers like Pick-3s and Pick-4s, you better spread out in the turf

races. With only 27 percent of the favorites winning and the average win price

being $16.63, it would be pretty hard to single a turf race and be confident

knowing the trend that you are going against.

Second, I would pay close attention to where the rail is set today and where

it was set when today's entrants ran in prior turf races here. There was a

strong correlation between the placement of the rail affecting the success of

various running styles. If the rail is set 60 feet out or farther, I might be

willing to take a chance on a horse breaking from an extreme outside post. I

wouldn't go against all speed horses when the rail is set far out, but there

would have to be strong factors in their favor for me to expect them to hang on.

With the rail down on the inside, I would give horses breaking from inside

posts and/or those with tactical speed an edge over the wide closers. A favorite

who only rallies from far back would be worth taking a stand against under these

circumstances. Versatile turf horses with smart riders merit the edge in this

case.