HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 25, 2006
by Dick Powell
I like turf racing and I like turf racing at Gulfstream Park. But my bankroll
hasn’t been liking turf racing at Gulfstream Park this meet and it’s been
driving me nuts.
Being naturally obsessive and compulsive, I decided that I had to go over
every imaginable detail of turf racing at Gulfstream to figure out what I’ve
been doing wrong and how I can correct it.
The biggest mistake I’ve been making at Gulfstream this year has been not
paying enough attention to where the rail is on the turf course and
understanding the resulting implications.
When Gulfstream extended their main track from one mile to the current 1 1/8
miles, they installed a new turf course that took advantage of the additional
space. The previous seven-furlong turf course is now 160 feet wide and racing
can be conducted in eight different “lanes,” each one 12 feet out incrementally
from the inside. When the rail is set at 60 feet or more (either 72 or 84 feet),
the running distance is about one mile.
Normally, with this much room, there would be two separate and distinct turf
courses – each with their own characteristics. But at Gulfstream, there is one
big, wide turf course that must be treated like two different turf courses.
When the rail is at 0 feet, the turf course behaves like the Inner Turf
Course at Saratoga. Inside posts tend to dominate and horses who get wide,
stalking trips are severely compromised.
When the rail is at least 60 feet out, the turf course behaves like the
Mellon Turf Course at Saratoga. Outside posts now have a fighting chance and
horses coming from behind can make a wide, sweeping move and get up in time.
Inside speed horses do not have the advantage that they have when the rail is
down on the inside.
The following list displays the rail position for each day of racing in the
first seven weeks:
| January 4, 7, 8 | 84 feet | |
| January 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 | 60 feet | |
| January 19, 20, 21, 22 | 36 feet | |
| January 25, 26, 27 | 0 feet | |
| January 28 | 72 feet | |
| January 29 races 5 and 9 | 0 feet | |
| January 29 race 7 | 72 feet | |
| February 1, 2, 3 | 72 feet | |
| February 4 and 5 | off the turf | |
| February 6 | 72 feet | |
| February 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 | 48 feet | |
| February 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 | 24 feet |
Save this chart and update it as the meet progresses. Charts of the
Gulfstream Park turf races usually have the rail position in them — if there is
no notation it means that the rail was set at 0 feet.
However, past performance lines do not have the rail position of
prior turf races at Gulfstream, so the above chart should be invaluable.
As you can see, the first three days of racing on the Gulfstream Park turf
course had the rail at 84 feet. Not a single horse went gate-to-wire in nine
races, and the winning post positions were 8, 7, 10, 8, 7, 12, 10, 3 and 2. The
turf was listed as “firm” each day and no matter what the pace scenario, horses
that came from far back on the outside dominated.
I think that this is when my slump began because the evidence was there that
outside closers were going to be tough at Gulfstream this year on the turf.
In week two, with the rail at 60 feet, we finally had a few horses win on or
near the front end in the 16 races conducted. MOONSHINE GAL (Forest Wildcat)
went gate-to-wire in race 8 on January 12 in what was the 13th turf race of the
meet and was one of four front-end winners on the turf that week. If you still
had week one on your mind, you probably had a bad week two.
Week three saw the temporary rail set at 36 feet and three of the nine
winners leading gate to wire. Winning running styles were varied and the course
played extremely fair.
Week four had the rail set at its innermost position of 0 feet the first
three days, at 72 feet for the three turf races on January 28 and the 7TH race
on January 29, and at 0 feet for races 5 and 9 on January 29. Of the 11 races
run on the far inside, horses forwardly placed or rallying on the inside had the
advantage. Of the four races run with the rail set at 72 feet, all were won from
off the pace.
Week five had the rail at 72 feet for the four days of racing that survived
the only real rainy spell of the meet. At this point, I should have understood
the cause-and-effect relationship of the location of the temporary rail on the
turf course and at 72 feet, I should have been looking at horses who might need
an extra sixteenth of a mile to get up in time.
But, with the rail down for most of week four, the data my brain was
processing was recent images of horses up near the lead doing well. Week five
contained 10 turf races and only JET PROPULSION (Double Honor) was able to go
gate to wire. A few pace prompters were able to win; the rest were deep closers.
There were 18 turf races run in week six when the rail was set at 48 feet. As
you would expect from the middle position, a variety of running styles were
successful.
Finally, the rail was set at 24 feet in week seven and five of the 19 turf
races were won gate to wire. Pace prompters did well and only a few horses were
able to rally from far back and get up in time.
I know this is terrible science and an example of what I accuse others of
doing, using “anecdotal evidence,” but go back to Jerry Bailey’s last ride in the
saddle. It was on Sunshine Millions day – the Cloverleaf Farms Turf S. Jerry was
aboard the 9-10 favorite, Silver Tree (Hennessy), and did everything that made
him one of the great riders of his time.
He saved ground, waited for room and exploded when the hole opened up on the
rail in the deep stretch.
Unfortunately, the “gods of racing” were against Jerry that day because the
rail was set at 72 feet. At 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream has to run this distance
with the rail farther out with the starting gate a furlong from the finish line.
If the race were run with the rail down on the inside, the starting gate would
have to be two furlongs from the finish line which would put it past the top of
the stretch on the far turn.
One-dimensional closer MIESQUE’S APPROVAL (Miesque’s Son) was able to rally
that day out in the middle of the track on the far turn and get up in time,
denying Bailey and horse racing the fairy tale ending that was hoped for. The
rail set at 72 feet didn’t beat Bailey, but it sure helped Miesque’s Approval
win.
At Saratoga, favorites win more races on the Mellon Turf Course than on the
inner turf course, even with more starters per race. Logic says this happens
because the wider turns enable horses that have had traffic trouble enough time
to overcome it. The Inner Turf Course at Saratoga has more bad trips with
traffic problems being too much to overcome.
However, at Gulfstream, the percentage of winning favorites is not much
different from the outer rail positions to the inner rail positions. Overall, 26
favorites have won the 96 turf races run at Gulfstream in the first seven weeks,
a win rate of 27 percent.
For 24 turf races where the rail was placed at either 72 or 84 feet, only
five favorites won (21 percent win). I would have guessed that favorites would
have fared better than the par average of 27 percent with the rail out and the
wider turns, but that was not the case. And the average win price was not much
different than the overall average win price of $16.63 for the 96 turf races run
under all conditions.
So what are we to learn from all this. First and foremost, if you are playing
multiple race wagers like Pick-3s and Pick-4s, you better spread out in the turf
races. With only 27 percent of the favorites winning and the average win price
being $16.63, it would be pretty hard to single a turf race and be confident
knowing the trend that you are going against.
Second, I would pay close attention to where the rail is set today and where
it was set when today’s entrants ran in prior turf races here. There was a
strong correlation between the placement of the rail affecting the success of
various running styles. If the rail is set 60 feet out or farther, I might be
willing to take a chance on a horse breaking from an extreme outside post. I
wouldn’t go against all speed horses when the rail is set far out, but there
would have to be strong factors in their favor for me to expect them to hang on.
With the rail down on the inside, I would give horses breaking from inside
posts and/or those with tactical speed an edge over the wide closers. A favorite
who only rallies from far back would be worth taking a stand against under these
circumstances. Versatile turf horses with smart riders merit the edge in this
case.