PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
FEBRUARY 24, 2006
Turf maiden trainers and angles
by Tim Holland
In February 2004, at Gulfstream Park, future Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) winner
Shakespeare (Theatrical [Ire]) impressively broke his maiden in his first start,
going a route on the grass. Last Sunday at the same venue, almost exactly two
years later, his half-sister, Fantastic Shirl (Fantastic Light), emulated this
feat with an impressive win over nine rivals. This victory not only gives us an
exciting prospect to watch for, but also serves as an example of what pedigree
handicappers and followers of trainer angles should be on the lookout for.
When trainer Bill Mott sent Shakespeare out for his debut, he was no secret to
the public. Well bred, being by the top turf sire Theatrical out of Flower Bowl
H. (G1) queen Lady Shirl (That’s a Nice), Shakespeare had been training well at
the Payson Park Training Center and was dispatched as the second favorite.
Racing without the use of Lasix, as many of Mott’s debuters do, Shakespeare rated off a moderate pace before circling the field and
winning easily under a hand ride from Jerry Bailey, earning a BRIS Late Pace
figure of 101 and a BRIS Speed figure of 84 for the 1 1/16-mile trip.
While Shakespeare is by one international turf star in Theatrical, Fantastic Shirl was sired by another in Fantastic Light. Campaigned by Godolphin,
Fantastic Light racked up nearly $4 million in earnings with his biggest
successes coming in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), Hong Kong Cup (HK-G1) and the
Irish Champion S (Ire-G1). At stud, Fantastic Light got off to a slow start, with his best runners to-date being Jalisco Light, winner of nearly $700K in
Japan, and Prince of Light, a Group 3 winner in England. However, even
though he won two of his three starts as a two-year-old, Fantastic Light got
better with age and we can expect the same from his offspring.
While pedigree followers should have had little trouble spotting Fantastic
Shirl on Sunday, handicappers relying on trainer angles may have needed to dig a
little deeper. Indeed, even knowing that Shakespeare had broken his maiden at
first asking, many may have been put off by Bill Mott’s 7 percent win rate
with first-time starters, taken from a large sample of 323. However, closer
examination reveals that Mott actually owns a good win rate when he sends out
runners over a mile or more, on the turf, for their first effort. Besides
Shakespeare, this list of winners includes top turf performers King Cugat
(Kingmambo), Delta Princess (A.P. Indy), My Typhoon (Ire) (Giant’s Causeway) and
Del Mar Show (Theatrical [Ire]).
Like her brother, Fantastic Shirl was trained by Mott at Payson Park prior to
her debut and similarly showed a long string of solid, well-spaced works,
the one difference being that all of her recent works were over four furlongs as
opposed to most of Shakespeare’s, which were at five furlongs. This may have
been to compensate for the fact that Fantastic Shirl’s debut was to be run at a
flat mile, over the slightly more speed-favoring new Gulfstream turf course. If
this was the case, it worked well as the filly showed plenty of early speed to
track the early leader before drawing off under Mott’s main rider,
Cornelio Velasquez, to win by nearly four lengths, paying her supporters a
healthy $10. Like Shakespeare had done, Fantastic Shirl broke her maiden
without Lasix and earned a respectable BRIS Speed figure of 83.
Winning at a rate of 21 percent, Bill Mott’s stable has been lucrative to
follow at this current Gulfstream meet. Of his 13 wins, four have come
with maidens going long on the turf, and one winner in this category that
pedigree and trainer angle followers may have caught was Wherethewestbegins (Gone
West), who broke his maiden for the stable on February 15. Unplaced in his
debut, a dirt sprint, Wherethewestbegins was switched to the turf and stretched
out for his second start, the exact pattern that Mott has successfully followed
in recent years with the likes of Wend (Pulpit) and Silver Tree (Hennessy).
Being by the good turf sire Gone West and out of a Sky Classic mare, it could
have been expected that Wherethewestbegins would take to the grass. He did
not let his supporters down, posting a neck victory over a contentious
field and returning $15.60.
Bill Mott is not the only trainer highly capable of sending out first-time winners
going long on the grass. Todd Pletcher pulled off the same feat this meet with Mercurius
(Lemon Drop Kid), who captured a 1 1/16-mile turf affair on Gulfstream’s opening day. While most of Pletcher’s
debuters are well bet at any distance or surface, (including Babyifurgoodtogo [Elusive Quality], who was made the strong favorite in Fantastic Shirl’s race
despite owning little turf pedigree on her dam’s side), Mercurius was ignored by
the public and dispatched at odds of nearly 15-1. The number one
reason for this oversight was the fact that Pletcher’s main jockey, John
Velazquez, had seemingly opted to ride for another stable in this race, leaving
the mount on Mercurius open for Christopher DeCarlo.
This leads to a good angle
since Pletcher rarely sends out runners that are not fit or do not belong in the
race they are entered for, no matter who is riding. Indeed, apart from the
absence of Velazquez, there was really no reason to dislike Mercurius in this
spot. As a son of Lemon Drop Kid, who is fast becoming a good turf sire, and out of
a Danzig mare, he owns a good turf pedigree and showed plenty of consistent
works at Payson Park. The Pletcher/DeCarlo angle, which has been worth watching
for a couple of years, paid off again on February 16 when DeCarlo piloted
Harbor Master (Seattle Slew) to a wire-to-wire victory in a turf allowance,
paying $20.
Graham Motion has had a relatively quiet Gulfstream, winning just two races
from nearly 30 starts. However, one of his winners, the promising colt Loconia (Rahy),
was, for pedigree and trainer angle players, quite easy to find
on January 25 and offered rewarding odds of nearly 10-1. By top turf sire Rahy
and out of the
Danzig mare Freedom of Speech, Loconia is a full-brother to last year’s National
Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S.(G2) winner T.D. Vance, and Motion owns good win
rates for lay-off winners (23 percent) and first time on the turf ( 20 percent).
An interesting comparison can be made between Loconia and one of Motion’s better
charges, the top-class filly Film Maker (Dynaformer), in that they each made one promising
start in a dirt sprint the summer before and then went on to break their maidens on the turf at Gulfstream early in their three-year-old careers.
Another well-bred, exciting three-year-old to break his maiden going long on
the turf while coming off a break since last summer is Outperformance. By the
young sire Aptitude, whose runners should like the grass since he is by A.P. Indy,
and out
of a Northern Dancer mare, he is a half-brother to the top sprinter Richter
Scale from the immediate family of Best Pal. Trained by Richard Violette,
Outperformance was well bet when he made his debut in a tough Saratoga maiden
last summer, only to lose most of his chance when bumped hard after the start.
Typical for Violette, Outperformance was fit when making his reappearance in
late January, having worked steadily at the nearby Palm Meadows Training
Center, but the public surprisingly overlooked him, allowing him to
start at 10-1.
While always in good striking position, Outperformance again found trouble when steadied on the first turn and again on
the far turn, but that did not stop him from making a strong late run to win
impressively. Along with Wherethewestbegins, Loconia
and Fantastic Shirl, this colt should be watched closely this spring and
summer.
With many of the best turf trainers based in Florida for the winter, Gulfstream Park has, for many years, been a favorite location for players who
follow trainers that are good at developing young grass horses. Mott, Pletcher, Motion and Violette are four
good examples, but another
trainer who has been uncharacteristically quiet this meet is Christophe Clement, with only one win from 23 starts. However,
he’s recorded three seconds with just six starters in turf maiden races this
meet, including Doryphar (Gone West), who
finished second behind Fantastic Shirl in her debut on Sunday. Handicappers
could be well advised to pay attention to Clement’s runners in turf maidens for
the rest of this meet, maybe starting on Friday with Lil Texas (El Prado [Ire]),
who will make his first start in the final race on the card.