ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
FEBRUARY 1, 2006
by James Scully
Southern California-based three-year-olds A.P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) and WANNA
RUNNER (El Corredor) shipped north for Sunday’s El Camino Real Derby (G3), but
both got thumped by the local star, CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria’s Mon). Trained by
Jerry Hollendorfer, Cause to Believe rallied strongly up the rail leaving the
far turn to overhaul OBJECTIVE (El Corredor) and captured the 1 1/16-mile event
by three parts of a length.
Now two for two around two turns, the gray colt is Hollendorfer’s best three-year-old since Event of the Year, who captured the 1998 El
Camino Real Derby and Jim Beam S. (G2) but missed the Kentucky Derby (G1) due to
injury. Cause to Believe was a model of consistency last season, compiling a
4-2-0 mark from six starts, but competed mostly at lower levels, including a
victory in the Cavonnier S. at Santa Rosa. That fact will lead to negative
sentiments about his quality, but Smarty Jones raced exclusively at Philadelphia
Park and Real Quiet lost twice at Santa Fe Downs when they were juveniles.
Cause to Believe has developed into a legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect. His
99 BRIS Speed rating isn’t overwhelming, but it’s January and those numbers can
rise substantially. The Kentucky-bred displayed a strong turn of foot, earning a
107 Late Pace number Saturday, and owns the pedigree (by a sire with a Kentucky
Derby winner and out of a Storm Cat mare) for 10 furlongs. There’s a
lot to like about the improving colt.
Objective, who is based in Northern California with trainer Tom Roberts,
broke his maiden on the grass at Golden Gate Fields and finished a
non-threatening fourth when making his stakes bow in November’s Real Quiet S. at
Hollywood Park. He opened 2006 with an easy score over a sloppy track in the
off-the-turf Hill Rise S. at Santa Anita and took another step forward in the El
Camino Real Derby, gamely digging in when passed by Cause to Believe in midstretch and battling to the wire. Objective is on the upswing presently, but
he didn’t face any pressure on the lead Saturday and probably won’t be able to dictate
the pace in future engagements.
Following A.P. Warrior’s flop in the Hollywood Futurity (G1), a change in
tactics made sense for the El Camino Real Derby. The $1.3 million colt was
focused when up on the pace during impressive maiden and allowance victories,
but he was hard held early in the Hollywood Futurity and never got into the
race. Guess what happened Saturday. As soon as the gates opened, Alex Solis
pulled immediately on A.P. Warrior. The unhappy horse was rank and climbing at
the back of the field as he entered the first turn.
Trainer Eoin Harty said the next step is to add blinkers. There was no
mention of giving the colt his head and allowing him to settle himself into a
comfortable running position, leaving us to wonder whether A.P. Warrior will
continue to be force-fed a lesson that isn’t working.
In other recent events, R LOYAL MAN (More Than Ready) posted his third
consecutive victory and handed DOC CHENEY (Saint Ballado) his first defeat in
Saturday’s seven-furlong Pasco S. at Tampa Bay Downs. The winner appears
destined for the sprint ranks, but Doc Cheney, who entered his seasonal bow with a
two-for-two mark and finished third, has classic aspirations with his pedigree
and connections (Nick Zito trained). He’ll need to show much more next time.
TRAILING TWELVE (Five Star Day) captured a 1 1/16-mile event at Aqueduct
Thursday, earning a career-best 100 Speed rating and flattering Count Fleet S.
winner Achilles of Troy (Notebook) in the process. Fourth behind Achilles of
Troy as the favorite in the Count Fleet, Trailing Twelve rebounded with a strong
showing from just off the pace and defeated Count Fleet runner-up EXTRA BEND
(Twining) in the allowance/optional claiming affair.
BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold) ran well in his 2006 bow, taking a 1
1/16-mile allowance at Santa Anita on January 20. The Bob Baffert runner drew
off smartly in upper stretch, winning by three lengths and earning a 100 Speed
rating, and may continue to develop into one of the better three-year-olds.
Another sophomore of interest is LATENT HEAT (Maria’s Mon), who broke his maiden
in a seven-furlong heat at Santa Anita on January 21.
Trained by Bobby Frankel, the bay colt finished an excellent second behind
the well-regarded Cindago (Indian Charlie) when making his first start in a
December 26 maiden special weight at Santa Anita. The third-place finisher that
afternoon, Point Determined (Point Given), demolished maiden special weight
rivals in his next outing, and Latent Heat made short work of his opponents last
out in near wire-to-wire fashion, receiving a 102 Speed rating.
Kentucky Derby hopefuls will be racing this Saturday at Gulfstream in the 1
1/8-mile Holy Bull S. (G2) and 7 1/2-furlong Hutcheson S. (G2), and Santa Anita
will host the nine-furlong Sham S. (G3).