Florida Derby

Gulfstream Park’s centerpiece event, the $1 million Florida Derby (G1),
highlights a program that offers seven stakes on Saturday, and there’s plenty
of intrigue surrounding the 1 1/8-mile event due to BARBARO (Dynaformer).
Unbeaten in four starts, the Michael Matz-trained colt will make his first
appearance in eight weeks from a bad outside post (10) and has never raced over
a fast track, which he’ll get on Saturday. We’ll try to beat the 8-5 choice on
the morning line.

SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado) brings improving form into the Florida Derby for
trainer Todd Pletcher and will be along in time to nail the front runners. A
full brother to multiple champion Ashado, the Todd Pletcher pupil quickly
rebounded from his only poor career showing, a seventh over a sloppy track in
the Holy Bull S. (G3), to record a sharp allowance win at nine furlongs last
time. A maiden victor in his final juvenile start, Sunriver didn’t enter his
three-year-old campaign as a seasoned, stakes caliber performer — he needed a
few starts before realizing his potential. His last effort, which netted a
career-best 102 BRIS Speed and Late Pace rating, signaled his readiness to take
his game to a new level. The late-blooming colt raced close to the pace last
time due to a lack of speed in the field, but that doesn’t look like an issue
Saturday. Sunriver is ready to show more and will establish himself as a serious
Kentucky Derby (G1) contender with the win.

SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) looks difficult to beat if left unopposed on
the lead. We can’t envision a fresh Barbaro not taking a run at him at some
point before the stretch drive, but Sharp Humor is still a threat to get out
there alone and never come back to the field. The bay colt didn’t make his
three-year-old debut until the seven-furlong Swale S. (G2) last out and posted
an impressive win, dueling for the lead from the start and re-rallying along the
rail to get the neck decision in deep stretch, and he appears to be training
well for Dale Romans since then. Sharp Humor has never been two turns, but he’s
got the pedigree to excel at 1 1/8 miles and displayed plenty of quality
last time. We expect a strong showing from the front runner.

We won’t throw Barbaro out of the top three, but we can’t understand how big
gaps in his racing schedule will help the developing three-year-old. It might
not be much of an issue with an older horse, but Barbaro is still unproven on
the main track and has been stuck training while his counterparts continue to
improve through racing. He easily defeated overmatched rivals in his first three
starts on grass, but the Holy Bull doesn’t give any indication of how he’ll
perform against top three-year-olds on the dirt since it was held over a sloppy
track. The dark bay is talented — watch the video of his grass races to see how
he explodes into the stretch — but he’s got a short run to the first turn from
his outside post and figures to be caught wide if Edgar Prado doesn’t send him
right away. Considering that Barbaro has never been worse than second at any
point of call during his racing career, he doesn’t look like a candidate to
suddenly start rating off the layoff. The unbeaten colt looks vulnerable at
short odds.

FLASHY BULL (Holy Bull) deserves consideration for it all and looks like a
good use on the bottom of the exotics. Still a maiden winner, the gray colt
finished a commendable second when making his first start against winners in
November’s Remsen S. (G2) and had to overcome bad outside posts in two starts at
Gulfstream this year. The first resulted in a solid fourth in the Holy Bull, and
the Kiaran McLaughlin charge showed more last time in the Fountain of Youth
(G2), finishing only a neck back of the elevated winner, First Samurai (Giant’s
Causeway). Flashy Bull draws a much better gate (2) on Saturday and his Speed
numbers have been increasing. He’ll likely be forwardly placed under Rafael
Bejarano before offering his best run.

SAINT AUGUSTUS (Saint Ballado) steps up off an easy wire-to-wire allowance
win and is a threat to keep improving for Pletcher. The class hike may prove too
extreme, but his triple-digit Speed rating last time is encouraging and Saint
Augustus looks very comfortable at longer distances. We wouldn’t be surprised to
see him offer a good rally for part. HIGH BLUES (High Yield) has been showing
more in his recent starts while squaring off against talented allowance rivals.
The maiden winner clearly wants a route of ground, and his Speed ratings have
been improving nicely. He’s another one to consider for a minor award.

REHOBOTH (Wagon Limit) finished only two lengths back of the disqualified
Corinthian (Pulpit) in the Fountain of Youth and has offered a good turn of foot
in both starts at Gulfstream this winter. The Florida-bred still has class
concerns at this level, but his form’s improved at three (triple-digit Speed
ratings in his last two starts) and the Frank Gomez runner offers some appeal
for the gimmicks at long odds. DOC CHENEY (Saint Ballado) will make his graded
bow for Nick Zito off a second to Saint Augustus. The chestnut colt faded late
in his first start around two turns that afternoon, and he disappointed his
supporters two starts back when finishing third in the Pasco S. at Tampa Bay
Downs. Doc Cheney has never earned a triple-digit Speed rating, and we’ll just
watch to see how he fares while stepping up in class here.

HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush) wheels back two weeks later off a seventh in the
Gotham S. (G3). He experienced trouble heading into the first turn that
afternoon, but the Zito-trained colt has shown little in two straight efforts
against stakes rivals and has never earned a Speed rating better than 94. SAM’S
ACE (In Excess [Ire]), who invades South Florida from California for trainer
Doug O’Neill, would hurt the standing of the Florida-based three-year-olds with
a strong showing. CHARMING IMAGE (Halo’s Image) doesn’t look fast enough to be a
factor.