HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
APRIL 7, 2006
by Dick Powell
Finally, an answer. Maybe not “the” answer, but an answer nonetheless.
BARBARO’s (Dynaformer) gutsy win in the Florida Derby (G1) last Saturday
answered a lot of questions and stamped him as a legitimate contender for the
Kentucky Derby (G1) in four weeks. Usually horses that come into a race
undefeated in four starts don’t have as many questions as Barbaro had, but an
unusual set of circumstances left him with a lot to prove.
As one would expect with a son of Dynaformer, trainer Michael Matz
started him out on the turf last year and he romped by more than eight lengths
at Delaware Park going two turns. He came back in the Laurel Futurity on the
lawn six weeks later and romped again. On New Year’s Day, he celebrated his
third birthday with an easy win in the Tropical Park Derby (G3) at Calder going
nine furlongs in a very fast time despite a modest pace.
A month later, Barbaro made his main track debut for Matz in the Holy Bull S.
(G3). Over an extremely sloppy track, he stalked a fast pace, took over and then
held off a late challenge by Great Point (Point Given). His final time of
1:49.31 earned a BRIS Speed figure of 104.
As good as he looked, he still had not competed on a dry main track. Matz
waited patiently and pointed for the Florida Derby. Even though Barbaro won his
career debut, he now had to make his Grade 1 debut off an eight-week layoff and
prove that he could fire his best shot fresh, something he is going to have to
do off a five-week layoff now.
To throw in a final challenge, Barbaro drew post 10 for the nine-furlong
event. In nine-furlong races on the main track at Gulfstream, there is a very
short run into the first turn. Break a step slow and you’ll be back in the pack
fighting for position. The BRIS Post Bias report for this distance shows a
severe inside bias for these races and the bettors made Barbaro an uncertain 8-5
favorite.
As expected, Swale S. (G2) winner Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) gunned to the
front and made the lead with Mark Guidry. Edgar Prado aboard Barbaro had to put the pedal down going into the first turn to fight off an outside
challenge from Sam’s Ace (In Excess [Ire]).
Barbaro might be sired by distance influence Dynaformer, but his dam is by
Carson City, and Prado needed every fast-twitch muscle from the
bottom side of the pedigree to outsprint Sam’s Ace. The colt was able to do it
beautifully and took up his customary first-over position outside Sharp Humor.
What was very impressive was that he righted himself quickly after an awkward
break, something that he may need to do on the
first Saturday in May, and showed good speed going into the first turn, but once
he gained position he was able to relax like an old pro. Another horse might
have gotten all keyed up and rank from the exertion of early energy, but Barbaro
settled beautifully.
Sharp Humor cruised along through modest fractions of :47.35 and 1:11.37 over
a main track that favored front runners all day. He showed tremendous heart in
his Swale victory and by the way he was going it was obvious that his two-turn
debut might be a good one. Prado turned up the pressure around the far turn and
the leading pair continued to separate themselves from the rest of the field.
Just when it looked like Barbaro might draw away in the stretch, Sharp Humor
battled back on the rail and it was “game on.” Prado kept after Barbaro, who
began to edge clear in the final yards before scoring by a half-length. His
final time of 1:49.01 was a tenth of a second faster than BANDINI (Fusaichi
Pegasus) ran in the Skip Away H. (G3) a race earlier. He earned the same BRIS Speed figure of 104 that he ran in the Holy Bull.
A cursory review of Saturday’s races at Gulfstream Park shows that speed did
very well on the main track. And in the Florida Derby, the two horses that
battled for the lead every step finished first and second. So you could say that
Barbaro was the beneficiary of the speedy track with no closers making a dent in
the late running and he only had a sprinter trying to long for the first time to
beat.
Or, you could appreciate that the multiple talents that he displayed early in
the race and his proven versatility so far in his young career merit a more
favorable review. And, even though the track may have carried Sharp Humor, it
was his two-turn debut and only second start of the year so his race was just as
impressive.
The only horse to make up any ground from off the pace was Sunriver (Saint
Ballado), who finished third after a rough start and subsequent wide trip. The
full brother to champion Ashado was up against everything
including the prevailing bias and still finished well to be third, 3 1/2 lengths
behind Barbaro.
The three top finishers will all be seriously considered when they show up in
Kentucky. It’s been 50 years since anyone won the Derby off a five-week layoff
but in today’s world of trainers wanting more time between races, 35 days might
be just about right.
A horse that might enter the Derby off a 42-day layoff is the brilliant
DISCREET CAT (Forestry), winner of the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) at Nad al Sheba. An easy
winner of his career debut at Saratoga last year for Stanley Hough going six
furlongs and earning a huge BRIS Speed figure of 109, he was purchased by
Godolphin and unseen for six months.
Discreet Cat surfaced on March 9 in an allowance race in Dubai which he won
easily in fast time. Rushed back 16 days later for the UAE Derby going 1800
meters (just under nine furlongs), he faced a very tough field of South American
three-year-olds that are about six months older than their North American
counterparts.
Stable rider Frankie Dettori settled Discreet Cat in fourth place off a
modest pace early while keeping him wide and clear. At the top of Nad al Sheba’s
long stretch, Dettori set him loose and he opened up a huge lead. When he hit
the wire six lengths in front, track announcer Terry Spargo said, “Is Louisville
next?” According to Simon Crisford, racing manager of Godolphin, a decision
regarding Discreet Cat’s next start will be made by April 15.
Discreet Cat covered the 1800 meters in 1:48.59, covering his last 600 meters
(about three furlongs) in :36.42. He beat a strong field and despite being sired
by the speedy Forestry, he has plenty of pedigree on his dam’s side.
Pretty Discreet (Private Account) won the Alabama S. (G1) going 1 1/4 miles, and she
is from the female family of Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Buryyourbelief (Believe
It). He’s already proven that he can run in America and represents the best
chance that Godolphin has ever had in winning the Derby.