PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
APRIL 7, 2006
Winning on the Green at Keeneland
by Tim Holland
A sure sign that winter is over in Kentucky occurs annually when Keeneland
Racetrack opens the gates for its Spring Meet, which will run this year from
April 7 through April 28. During 15 racing days, Keeneland will host a total of
19 stakes races worth $4,225,000.
One of Keeneland’s many assets is the turf course. Installed in 1985, the
course is sand-based which promotes efficient drainage, and consequently it is
very rare that the management is forced to move a scheduled grass race to the
main track in the event of rain. Another by-product of being sand-based is that
the course favors traditional turf horses — ones that not only possess stamina
but also can win by utilizing a strong late run.
While many other courses in North America often play to front runners, it is
a hard task for a horse to “wire” a field over the Keeneland turf. Owners and
trainers know this and, combined with the lure of lucrative purses, bring their
best turf prospects to race. Indeed, future Breeders’ Cup winners
Intercontinental (GB) and Artie Schiller (El Prado [Ire]) both made winning
seasonal debuts in stakes during the 2005 Spring Meet, while Relaxed Gesture
(Ire) (Indian Ridge), English Channel (Smart Strike), Gun Salute (Military) and
Angara (GB) (Alzao) all used Keeneland as a stepping-stone to Grade 1 successes
later in the year.
At this meet, 30 races will be run on the turf, nine of which are stakes, and
following a few guidelines can help make wagering on grass races profitable.
Pedigree
Although taking note of bloodlines is an integral part of handicapping any
turf race, it is especially important at Keeneland where the course favors true
grass runners. A look at the leading turf sires (by races won) at this venue,
for the last three years, gives horseplayers some important names to watch for:
| Sire | Wins | Sire line | ||
| Dynaformer | 8 | Roberto | ||
| El Prado (Ire) | 7 | Sadler’s Wells (Northern
Dancer) |
||
| Kris S | 7 | Roberto | ||
| Rahy | 5 | Blushing Groom | ||
| Danehill | 5 | Danzig (Northern Dancer) | ||
| Belong to Me | 5 | Danzig (Northern Dancer) |
Even from this relatively small sample, handicappers can see the influence of
Northern Dancer and Roberto, while the list (below) of leading broodmare sires,
also for the past three years, reinforces this data and also illustrates the
importance of Mr. Prospector on the female side in successful turf performers’
families:
| Broodmare Sire | Wins | Sire line | ||
| Kahyasi (Ire) | 5 | Ile de Bourbon (Northern
Dancer) |
||
| Woodman | 5 | Mr. Prospector | ||
| Danzig | 4 | Northern Dancer | ||
| Dynaformer | 4 | Roberto | ||
| Mr. Prospector | 4 | Raise A Native | ||
| Rubiano | 4 | Fappiano (Mr. Prospector) | ||
| Seattle Slew | 4 | Bold Reasoning | ||
| Seeking The Gold | 4 | Mr. Prospector |
Players should pay particular attention to turf runners whenever these sires
appear in the first two generations and some other names to watch for are
Affirmed, Cozzene, Alleged, Deputy Minister and Lord At War (Arg).
Bias and Pace
As one can see from the chart below (found in the TSN 2006 Track Stats book
for Kentucky), only 7 percent of all turf routes at Keeneland last year were won
in wire-to-wire fashion. One will also note that the inside posts were the most
productive, especially in turf routes of up to 1 1/16 mile.
| #Races | %Wire | Preferred Run Style* | Post | |||||
| Turf Routes | 72 | 7% | S | Rail | ||||
| 1m | 20 | 15% | S | Rail/Ins | ||||
| 1 1/16m | 19 | 11% | P | Rail | ||||
| 1 1/8m | 18 | 0% | S | Mid/Out | ||||
| >1 1/8m | 15 | 0% | P | Rail/Ins |
*( “S”- A winner exhibiting a typical “Sustained” run style
would show the horse running in the back-of-the-pack early before making his
late winning move. “P”- A winner exhibiting a typical “Presser” run style would
show the horse running mid-pack early before closing for the win.)
Many of the turf races at this meet will include horses who have been
competing on the more early speed favoring turf course at Gulfstream Park. Sharp
handicappers may notice horses that had, in the past, shown good late speed but
were not suited to the Gulfstream surface and, now running at Keeneland, may be
mistakenly overlooked by the public.
One of the best methods to gauge a horse’s late speed is through using the
BRIS Late Pace figures which can be found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past
Performances.
Horses for Courses
With the uniqueness of Keeneland’s turf, it is to the advantage of
handicappers to pay attention to horses that have performed well over this
surface before. Included in the TSN 2005 Track Stats book for Kentucky is a list
of horses with more than one win here, including the following horses who should
be watched closely if they show up in the entries during this meet.
| Horse | Win% | Sts | ||
| Angara | 100% | 2 | ||
| Asi Siempre | 100% | 2 | ||
| Everything To Gain | 50% | 4 | ||
| Good Reward | 67% | 3 | ||
| Honor In War | 33% | 6 | ||
| Joyful Chaos | 100% | 2 | ||
| Mr. Krisley | 50% | 6 | ||
| Paddy’s Daisy | 67% | 3 | ||
| Rapid Proof | 40% | 5 | ||
| Watershed Event | 100% | 2 |
Conversely, not all horses are suited to the Keeneland turf and players
should avoid horses that have performed poorly with no apparent excuse in past
races here, as a dislike for the footing may be the explanation.
Trainers
Handicappers should be aware that many trainers focus on Keeneland’s Spring
Meet as the start of their turf horses’ year-long campaigns. Roger Attfield and
Jonathon Sheppard are examples of trainers who rarely have strong meets in
Florida but routinely win at a high rate after moving the stable north.
Eleven trainers who should saddle runners at this meet and have maintained a
strike-rate of more than 20 percent for the last three years of turf racing at
Keeneland are:
| Trainer | Win% | |
| H. Graham Motion | 30%$* | |
| John Kimmel | 22%$ | |
| Patrick Biancone | 29% | |
| Todd Pletcher | 21%$ | |
| Christophe Clement | 27%$ | |
| Jonathon Sheppard | 21% | |
| Roger Attfield | 26%$ | |
| Shug McGaughey | 20%$ | |
| Tom Amoss | 25%$ | |
| Charles Simon | 20% | |
| Anthony Reinstedler | 22%$ |
*($–signifies a flat bet profit on each of the trainer’s runners).
In addition to the above, the stables of Dale Romans, Bill Mott and Angel
Penna should also find success at this meet, while value seeking horseplayers
should keep an eye out for runners from less famous barns such as Helen Pitts,
Charles Lopresti, Joan Scott and Vickie Foley.
Jockeys
The results of many turf races can depend on tactics employed by good jockeys
and, even though three of Keeneland’s leading turf riders — Pat Day, Jerry Bailey
and Gary Stevens –have recently retired, the wealth of talent is still deep.
Players should pay particular attention to any turf mount accepted by Rafael Bejarano who, along with Robby Albarado, John Velazquez, Brice Blanc, Edgar
Prado, Javier Castellano, Cornelio Velasquez and Mark Guidry, will account for a
large portion of the turf races this spring.
Additionally, it may pay to keep an eye on this year’s hot apprentice rider
Julien Leparoux.
While watching top-class turf racing is a rewarding experience in itself,
through paying attention to pedigree, pace, trainers and jockeys, horseplayers
may receive the added bonus of success at the betting windows.