PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
APRIL 1, 2006
Eight ‘under the radar’ First-Crop Sires to profit from
by Tim Holland
A few races for two-year-olds have already been run in California, and with
Keeneland, a popular location for many top trainers to introduce their
developing newcomers, just around the corner, this is a good time to get to know
some of the sires that will have their first runners this year.
Lacking the retirement of a “big name” horse, the group of stallions that
entered stud in 2003 appears, at first glance, to be on the weak side, but
a closer inspection reveals some good prospects who stood for realistic stud fees
in their initial season. At $40,000, Came Home (Gone West) commanded the highest
fee of the new sires that year, followed by Johannesburg (Hennessy), Red
Bullet (Unbridled) and Street Cry (Ire) (Machiavellian), all at $30,000.
Orientate (Mt.Livermore) at $25,000 was next highest, and any one of these
five has the potential to succeed in the stallion ranks.
At last fall’s yearling sales, the offspring of Came Home were in demand,
with 36 individuals averaging $147,311, a strong indication that one should have
high expectations for his runners. The first yearlings of Johannesburg and
Street Cry also attracted interest as did those from Buddha (Unbridled’s
Song), E Dubai (Mr. Prospector), Officer (Bertrando), Orientate (Mt.Livermore)
and Yonaguska (Cherokee Run). While the offspring of all these Kentucky-based
stallions should be watched closely on the track this year, it may also pay
handicappers to watch for some lesser known stallions from around the nation
whose runners should be precocious.
Florida has often been a successful location for stallions to stand their
first season and indeed the 2004 leading freshman sire, Successful Appeal, spent
his first year at stud in the Sunshine State. This year, Florida has several
promising representatives headed, stud fee wise, by the 2000 Preakness S. (G1)
winner Red Bullet, who has 55 registered two-year-olds to represent him in 2006.
However, owning a pedigree that suggests time and with a relatively
disappointing yearling sales average, one might not expect Red Bullet’s
offspring to be overly precocious, and thus Florida’s best shot at a 2006
leading first season sire may lie elsewhere.
SNOW RIDGE (Tabasco Cat), who stood his first season in Florida for a fee of
$5,000, may be the state’s best hope. Mature enough to win in June of his
two-year-old season, Snow Ridge captured 10 of 21 career starts, beating the likes of
Grade 1 winners Squirtle Squirt and City Zip, and his career highlight came
through a wire-to-wire victory in the San Carlos H. (G1) at Santa Anita. Snow
Ridge had 44 yearlings sell last fall, averaging a healthy $33,811 (including
three to sell for over $100K), while six of his two-year-olds brought an average
price of $46,833 at the Ocala sales this February and March. With 61 offspring
who can be expected to receive their sire’s speed,
Snow Ridge’s juveniles should be worth watching.
In recent years, the majority of leading first season sires have been
sprint/miler types on the track, and when Tiznow became the leading freshman
sire last year, he was the first stallion to do so that had won a Grade 1 race
at 1 1/4 miles since Farma Way topped the list in 1995. The Florida-based OUTOFTHEBOX (Montbrook), who won the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1), will try to
emulate this feat. Trained by Bernard Flint, Outofthebox split two of last
season’s leading first crop sires, Songandaprayer and City Zip, when finishing
second in the 2001 Fountain of Youth (G1) and then recorded a runner-up to Monarchos in the
Florida Derby (G1). Outofthebox was represented at the sales last fall by 34
yearlings who averaged more than $29K, and he had three two-year-olds average an
encouraging $72,333 at the OBS March sale.
Another promising first season sire standing in Florida is TEXAS GLITTER
(Glitterman). A stakes winner as a two-year-old , Texas Glitter finished second
in both the Swale S. (G3) and Hutcheson S.(G2) early in his second year of
racing. However, he is best remembered as an extremely fast and consistent turf
sprinter, winning the Hollywood Turf Express H. (G3) and the Laurel Dash S.(G3)
and setting turf course records at Laurel, Gulfstream and Calder. Standing his
first year for a reasonable $4,000, Texas Glitter’s sale yearlings averaged a
decent $18,449.
In the last 10 years, three leading freshman sires, Cherokee Run, Gilded
Time and Honour And Glory, had all been involved in the finish of a Breeders’ Cup
Sprint (G1), which bodes well for the chances of the New York-based sire THUNDERELLO (Montbrook). Sent off at nearly 50-1, Thunderello led nearly all the
way only to be caught by Orientate in the last few yards of the 2002 Breeders’
Cup Sprint at
Arlington Park. Being by Montbrook (also the sire of Outofthebox), whose
leading money winner to-date is the sprinter Shake You Down, and out of an In
Reality mare, it is easy to imagine Thunderello passing his speed to his
offspring.
A very interesting prospect is HIGH DEMAND (Danzig), who stands at Golden
Eagle Farm in California. After winning his maiden in his second start, High
Demand won his next four allowance races in succession before being retired.
Standing his first season for a fee of $7,500, he is responsible for 20
registered two-year-olds of 2006 of which only two were offered at auction, both
as yearlings, with one realizing a huge price of $290,000 and the second
$45,000. The higher priced yearling, who was purchased by trainer John Sadler, is
named Swift Demand and will be watched for with interest.
Being a full-brother to the 2001 champion first season sire, Valid
Expectations, one must pay attention to the offspring of LITTLEEXPECTATIONS
(Valid Appeal). While Valid Expectations was the more accomplished of the pair
overall on the track, Littleexpectations was precocious enough to win a pair of juvenile
stakes and finished third in the Lafayette S.(G3) behind Caller One the
following year. Standing in Texas for just $3,500, Littleexpectations has 39
two-year-olds to represent him this year.
STORM DAY (Storm Cat) was somewhat of a disappointment on the racetrack, winning just four times from 20 starts, with his best performance coming
when second in the Turfway Fall Championship (G3). However, being a
half-brother to Brian’s Time from a top female family, he has the pedigree to
succeed at stud and his yearlings sold for a respectable average of $16,890. Storm Day
stood for only $3,500 in his first season at stud in Louisiana and may improve in his
second career.
One Kentucky-based stallion who is worthy of mention, despite having a small
first crop of 19, is LEELANAU (Carson City). Being by the same sire as City
Zip, who was third on the 2005 Freshman Sire’s list, and out of a Kris S.
mare who is a half-sister to a Schuylerville S. (G2) winner, Leelanau has an
early-sire type pedigree. On the track he was unbeaten in two starts as a
juvenile, including a win in the Kentucky Breeders’ Cup S. (G3), in which beat
eventual Grade 1 winner Gygistar (Prospector’s Music) and
established a new track record. With his pedigree and precociousness and the fact that
his four sale yearlings averaged $21,550, one would have to consider his stud fee
of $2,500 a bargain.
| “Under the Radar” First-Crop Sires |
| Snow Ridge (Florida) |
| Outofthebox (Florida) |
| Texas Glitter (Florida) |
| Thunderello (New York) |
| High Demand (California) |
| Littleexpectations (Texas) |
| Storm Day (Louisiana) |
| Leelanau (Kentucky) |