Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

APRIL 29, 2006

Asmussen’s Two-Year-Olds at Keeneland

by Tim Holland

Perhaps one of the most notable achievements at Keeneland this spring was
trainer Steve Asmussen winning seven of the meet’s 12 races for two-year-olds.
While this may be no real surprise, since the trainer is well known for his
good work with newcomers and many of these winners were well supported at the
windows, there were still some decent betting opportunities for industrious
handicappers.

In “baby” races with little or no past race performances to study, many
horseplayers place a lot of emphasis on workouts, and a closer look at the
preparation of Asmussen’s runners illustrates how this can be helpful. Indeed,
before shipping to Kentucky, the trainer worked many of his two-year-olds at Sam
Houston Racecourse on March 19 and again seven days later, both times over four
furlongs from the gate. Eleven of these raced at Keeneland:

While workout times on their own can sometimes be deceptive and misleading,
one can see at a glance by comparing these times, at the same distance on the
same track and day, and with many presumably working together, which of
Asmussen’s charges were ready to put in a top performance. With a large amount
of juveniles in his barn, it seems likely that the trainer used these two days to
decide which horses were ready to ship to Keeneland to race.

The meet did not start on a great note on opening day for Asmussen’s
two-year-olds when Paljo, who had been one of the quickest at Sam Houston, was
hampered by drawing the 11 post and finished fourth behind the very promising
One Good Yank (Yankee Victor). However, within the next two weeks Angel Island,
Richwoman, Datrick, Sequoia King and Appealing Zophie all made their debuts
winning ones, with only Angel Island having to put up a fight.

One Good Yank is undoubtedly very useful and others that beat well fancied
Asmussen runners, and should be watched for in future starts, include Beautiful
Venue (Came Home), who bested Joangel, and was the freshman sire Came Home’s
first winner. Similarly, horses that ran well only to be beaten by juveniles
from the Asmussen barn include Gallant Dreamer (Belong To Me) who dueled with
Angel Island, only to finish a game second, beaten by just a half-length.

While Appealing Zophie, at 4.60-1, was the only one of these that was a
little surprising, one two-year-old from Asmussen’s barn that fooled the public
was Sentry (Silver Deputy) who was dispatched at odds of 8.90-1 when winning by
more than five lengths on April 23. Unlike the majority of the stable’s
youngsters to race here, Sentry had not worked at Sam Houston but instead had
been based at Churchill Downs after coming from El Primero Training Center in
Texas. Further investigation reveals that Carson Camp (Carson City), a $375,000
yearling purchase in 2005 by Stonestreet Stable LLC, had worked with the rest of
the string at Sam Houston on March 26, finishing in :48 2/5 from the gate, the
same time as Datrick and Sequoia King who were both easy winners at Keeneland.
Subsequently Carson Camp was shipped to Churchill Downs where he worked on April
11, according to the HR Daily Clocker’s Report, in company with Sentry and
another colt named Chace City, with Sentry proving just best in :49 4/5.

A week later, Sentry and Carson Camp worked with Fortunate Envoy and this
time Carson Camp stopped the clock in :49 4/5 after four furlongs, a neck ahead
of Sentry with Fortunate Envoy back in third. The work was rated “B” by the
Clocker’s Report, and handicappers who follow the product may have been
pleasantly surprised that Sentry was on offer at nearly double the odds of
Fortunate Envoy, when the pair made their debuts in the same race five days
later. The same players should have been jubilant when Sentry became the barn’s
sixth juvenile winner of the meet and paid $19.80.

Most trainers will try to match up their youngsters in terms of ability and
this can be a better indication of talent than fast times. With this in mind it
may pay horseplayers to be on the watch for the racing debut of Carson Camp and
also for Napa Cat, a colt by Storm Cat , who worked well with Sequoia King at
Churchill before the latter’s Keeneland win.