ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
APRIL 5, 2006
by James Scully
BARBARO (Dynaformer) kept his perfect record alive with a narrow victory in
Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) and confirmed his status as one of the
favorites for the Kentucky Derby (G1). Making his first start over a fast track,
the dark bay colt faced adversity from his outside post and had to work hard to
overhaul a stubborn SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) in deep stretch. He earned a
solid 104 BRIS Speed rating for the half-length decision.
It’s easy to get caught up in Barbaro. He opened his career with three
sensational turf wins, dominating rivals with a superb turn of foot that left
him all alone in the stretch galloping to the wire, and transferred his
top-class form to the main track in early February when posting an authoritative
win in the Holy Bull S. (G3) over sloppy conditions. Suspicions remained heading
into the Florida Derby, but he continued to show more and did so despite an
eight-week layoff. With trainer Michael Matz keeping him lightly raced, Barbaro
is a candidate to keep improving next time out.
Pacesetter Sharp Humor was fully extended to last nine furlongs over the
speed-favoring Gulfstream strip and probably doesn’t want any part of 1 1/4
miles in the Kentucky Derby. He still ran a terrific race on Saturday, gamely
fighting back when Barbaro appeared to stick a head in front turning for home,
and the winner needed the entire length of the stretch
to get past. Barbaro avoided trouble entering the first turn and sat a perfect
trip in second before launching his run. SAM’S ACE (In Excess [Ire]) and
HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush), who finished fourth and fifth at odds of 34-1 and
39-1, respectively, confirmed the track bias by racing in third and fourth
nearly the entire way, surrendering positioning only in deep stretch. SUNRIVER
(Saint Ballado), who was eighth after a half-mile, was the only runner to make
up much ground, finishing three lengths back of the runner-up in third.
Unlike his full sister Ashado, who captured the Spinaway S. (G1) and finished
second in the 2003 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), Sunriver has needed time
to develop into a top-class runner. He’s not there yet, but the Florida Derby
offered encouragement. After being squeezed early and traveling wide on the far
turn, the Todd Pletcher trainee appeared to find another gear in the final
sixteenth of a mile, winding up 2 1/4 lengths clear in third. Sunriver
registered a 101 BRIS Late Pace rating and his second straight triple-digit
Speed number (101), and the Florida Derby, which marked only his second foray
into stakes company, is his best performance to date. The improving colt may
still be a race or two away, but Sunriver will be an interesting darkhorse if he
has enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.
Getting back to Barbaro, the unbeaten sophomore needed a stiff test off the
freshening and gained valuable seasoning dueling with Sharp Humor. However, he
isn’t the most efficient mover on dirt, displaying a classic turf stride in the
Florida Derby that almost made it look like he was climbing through the stretch.
He ran the same way in the Holy Bull, and Barbaro will always have a future on
the grass if he doesn’t run well in the Kentucky Derby. The front runner has
never been worse than second at any point of call in his career.
The Kentucky Derby promises to be a new experience, and a light schedule
hasn’t been the best way to prepare a young three-year-old for 1 1/4 miles on
dirt against 19 rivals. Barbaro could get shuffled back or forced to travel
extremely wide under duress, and traffic is usually a factor. Since Matz’s
unconventional approach (only one start in 13 weeks) has never proved successful
in the modern era, it’s a very risky strategy from a trainer with no Triple
Crown experience. But Barbaro owns plenty of talent, so hope remains that he’ll be
able to overcome further obstacles as he travels the road less taken.
WANNA RUNNER (El Corredor) broke through with his first stakes victory in
Saturday’s WinStar Derby at Sunland Park, drawing clear to an easy 4
3/4-length victory, and the Preakness S. (G1) could be next for the Bob Baffert-trained
gelding. With its $600,000 purse, the WinStar Derby will take on a whole new
meaning if it ever gets Grade 3 status. Wanna Runner earned a 99 Speed rating.
This Saturday, BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) headlines an expected small field in
the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and the Grade 1-winning California-bred could
finally face a legitimate challenge while stretching out to nine furlongs for
the first time. He was the lone speed when making his seasonal bow in the
one-mile San Rafael S. (G2), and no proven rivals showed up for the Santa
Catalina S. (G2) last out. A.P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) and POINT DETERMINED (Point
Given) could each give the favorite a run for his money.
In Saturday’s Illinois Derby (G2), CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria’s Mon) is
the top draw. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and
California Derby winner owns a strong late kick. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint),
who ran well to be third despite a wide trip in the Gotham S. (G3) last time, is
another strong contender and MY GOLDEN SONG (Unbridled’s Song) brings decent
form from South Florida. Another one to watch out for is the improving RACKETEER
(Awesome Again), who will make his second stakes attempt off a decent fourth in
the San Felipe S. (G2).