HANDICAPPING FEATURE
MAY 3, 2006
Triple Crown Aspirations
by Rich Nilsen
It’s been 28 years since we last saw a Triple Crown winner grace the American
racing scene. Twenty-eight years since Affirmed won the epic battle over the
determined closer Alydar in the three consecutive races that make up the Triple
Crown – the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
Needless to say it takes a very special animal to sweep the three coveted
races. There was a gap of 25 years between Citation’s win in 1948 and
Secretariat’s score that ended with his historic 31-length romp in the 1973
Belmont Stakes.
Several runners have come excruciatingly close to the Triple Crown. Real
Quiet came out of nowhere in 1998 to pull a mild upset in the Derby, followed by
a corroborating win in the Preakness. He led the entire length of the stretch in
the Belmont Stakes but was nailed in the final yards by Victory Gallop in one of
the most dramatic endings in racing history. Charismatic, Silver Charm and War
Emblem are three other recent stars who faltered late in the Belmont after winning the first two legs.
Of course, only one horse will have a chance for the sweep after May 6, so
let’s take a brief look at what it takes to win the big race on Saturday.
Kentucky Derby
Every decade or so, there’s an anomaly and a less-than-great horse wins the
coveted Run for the Roses. Last year was one of those years when longshot
Giacomo (Holy Bull) stepped up to the plate and knocked it out of the park. A pace meltdown
set the race up for this obscure longshot who may never win another race, at
least against top company.
Nine out of 10 times, the Kentucky Derby is won by a proven Grade 1
commodity. On his resume will be strong performances against the best runners in
the country. With few exceptions, the winner will have a Grade 1 win or placing
at 1 1/8 miles prior to the race.
Closely analyze each horse’s past two races. Note the closing kick
demonstrated in each event. Brisnet.com offers a Late Pace rating in the past
performances, which accurately measures the finishing time of each and every
runner. The higher the figure, the faster the horse finished from the stretch
call to the wire.
To better analyze the pace scenario, I went into Custom PP Generator and
sorted the horses in order of speed points (sort order found under “Options”)
before printing out the race. Here’s a summary of the field based strictly on
running style and speed points:
| Front-runners: |
| (E 8) Brother Derek, Sharp Humor, Sinister Minister |
| (E 7) Keyed Entry |
| Close Stalkers: |
| (E/P 7) Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint |
| (E/P 6) Bluegrass Cat, Lawyer Ron, Private Vow |
| (E/P 5) Bob and John, Deputy Glitters,
Flashy Bull, Showing Up |
| Midpack Runners: |
| (E/P 3) A. P. Warrior |
| (P 5) Point Determined |
| Closers: |
| (P 3) Cause To Believe |
| (S 2) Jazil |
| (S 1) Storm Treasure |
| (S 0) Seaside Retreat, Steppenwolfer
|
This is a quick glance of the preferred runstyles for the Derby field and is,
in no way, any guarantee of how this race will play out. Taking it to another
level involves the use of BRIS Early Pace ratings and other factors.
Also, keep in mind that runners who were backing up in the prep races are not
likely to appreciate Churchill’s long stretch. Horses that were finishing well
at the end of the prep races are the most dangerous entries on May 7.
Looking to hit it big on Derby Day? Who isn’t! Here’s one tip for filling out
your trifecta wagers. The top spots in this race are usually dominated by
closers with maybe one speed horse hanging on for a share. Front-runners have
finished in-the-money only three times in the past seven years, with War Emblem
being the only winner in 2002.
Give the final edge to the most consistent horse that has recently run a
career-best Speed rating. It’s amazing how often the Derby winner
will be found at a nice price with a simple profile — a three-year-old with
strong BRIS Speed ratings who appears to be rounding into top form.
Finally, get your wagers down early through BrisBET.com, then sit back and
enjoy another renewal of the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.