Kentucky Oaks

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

When the gates open for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs, the
David Hofmans-trained BALANCE (Thunder Gulch) will get the chance to redeem
herself. The bay miss made her final prep for the nine-furlong Oaks in the
Ashland S. (G1) at Keeneland, sent off as the 1-2 favorite in the eight-horse
field. However, Balance could do no better than third, beaten 10 3/4 lengths,
and earned only a 90 BRIS Speed rating. Based on that performance,
we’re going to take a stand against the undeniably talented three-year-old and
try to find some value in the Oaks.

To do that, we’re going with the winner of the Ashland, who was making only
her sixth career start in the 1 1/16-mile test. BUSHFIRE (Louis Quatorze) made
her first appearance in competition a third in a Churchill maiden before
breaking through with a 2 1/2-length first win just 13 days later on the same
track. Trainer Eddie Kenneally gave the bay miss a two-month break and brought
her back in an allowance at Gulfstream Park, which she captured in now familiar
front-running fashion by a head. Her stakes debut, the Davona Dale S. (G2), came
next, but she never seemed able to get going on the sloppy track, eventually settling for
seventh.

Bushfire proved that event to be a fluke, and a warning to her connections to
keep her on fast tracks, as she returned with a three-quarter of a length
victory in the Florida Oaks. She entered the Ashland at 15-1, but there was
never any doubt as to who the best was that day, as she put more and more
distance between herself and her nearest rival, eventually finishing 6 1/2
lengths in the clear. Bushfire earned a career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating and has continuously earned century-topping BRIS E1 and E2 Pace figures
this season. If she gets loose on the lead again, Bushfire may prove impossible
to catch
under jockey Cornelio Velasquez.

DIPLOMAT LADY (Forestry) stamped herself as a force to be reckoned with last
season with a half-length score over Balance in the Hollywood Starlet S. (G1) at
39-1. However, she wasn’t immediately able to bring that form forward into 2006,
running fifth and fourth in the Las Virgenes S. (G1) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1),
respectively, in her first two starts back. It wasn’t until her last race, the
Beaumont S. (G2), that the Christopher Paasch-trained sophomore showed that same
spunk. Bumped at the start, she recovered to challenge for the lead,
eventually taking full command and drawing off for the 2 1/4-length win.
Diplomat Lady earned a 103 Speed figure for her victory and looks to be rounding
into top class form again. She could offer a very nice price on Friday with Alex
Solis in the saddle.

Balance will more than likely go off the favorite in the Oaks, and deservedly
so. The bay lass has posted very nice numbers throughout her career, with her
only setbacks coming in the aforementioned Hollywood Starlet and Ashland. Even
then, at least in the Starlet, she wasn’t that far back and still earned a nice
93 Speed rating for her effort. She’s been working well of late to prepare for
her Oaks run, getting six furlongs in a swift 1:11 3/5 last Friday at Hollywood
Park prior to shipping to Churchill. Balance is the one to beat in here
and will have regular rider Victor Espinoza in the irons.

MISS NORMAN (Artax) is something of an enigma based on her last performance.
Her bob-and-weave job during the Fantasy has been well-documented and her
numbers aren’t quite as high as others in here. However, the fact that she was
well on her way to a nice win in the Fantasy, before playing shadow games, gives
us the impression there’s still some untapped potential that could show up at
any time. Miss Norman could pick the Oaks to show what she’s really capable of,
so ignore at your own peril.

WAIT A WHILE (Maria’s Mon) moves up to first if rain moves in and the Oaks
comes up sloppy. The Todd Pletcher trainee proved her affinity, yet again, for
an off surface with her dominating 14-length victory in the Davona Dale. Two
prior to that, she captured the off-the-turf Miss Grillo S., her only other
stakes win, by 6 1/2 lengths on a good track. That doesn’t mean the gray miss
can’t run on fast surfaces, though. She was a commendable second in the Ashland
last time and owns the numbers to get the job done. Garrett Gomez has the call. ITTY
BITTY PRETTY (El Corredor) scored in the Santa Ysabel S. (G3) in her first race
back this year, but she hasn’t been able to find the winner’s circle since.
Nonetheless, the bay filly has been competitive in other major events, running third
in the Las Virgenes two back. She could even challenge in the top three under
Patrick Valenzuela.

WONDER LADY ANNE L (Real Quiet) comes into the Oaks off a more than two-month
break and is still seeking her first win this season. However, her past
accomplishments lead us to believe she will be tough on Friday and, though we
don’t think she’ll be getting her picture taken, a place in the exotics is not
outside the realm of possibility. ERMINE (Exchange Rate) is something of a
question mark. The Ronny Werner charge will be making her graded debut in the
Oaks off an easy three-length win in the Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Park. She earned
a nice 99 Speed rating for that score and could surprise in the bottom of the
gimmicks. LAST ROMANCE (Wild Rush) also just earned her first stakes win, taking
the Wayward Lass S. by 5 1/2 lengths, and might come running late for a share.

TOP NOTCH LADY (Sultry Song) has recorded three straight wins, including the
Bourbonette Breeders’ Cup S. (G3) at Turfway Park last out, but the fact she’s never gone the 1 1/8-mile distance gives us pause for concern. EX CAELIS (Fusaichi Pegasus) is still a maiden winner and hasn’t really been close
when competing against stakes company. We’ll let these two beat us.

QUIET KIM (Real Quiet) was sent off the 8-5 favorite in the Fantasy based on
her second to Balance in the Santa Anita Oaks, but could do no better than
sixth. Prior to that she broke her maiden in her eighth try. We can’t recommend.
LEMONS FOREVER (Lemon Drop Kid) has been working well of late, but doesn’t
appear fast enough to keep up with others in here. We’ll take a stand against.
RED CHERRIES SPIN (With Approval) absolutely dominated in her past two races, an
allowance at Evangeline Downs and a Keeneland claimer, with the latter bringing
about a trainer switch to Bernie Flint. The gray filly will be making her stakes
debut in a challenging spot, and we’ll just watch and wait for better things
later in the year.

TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS:		1st-BUSHFIRE
		2nd-DIPLOMAT LADY
		3rd-BALANCE